Accounting for external factors in business activities. RES design taking into account external influencing factors (WWF) Taking into account external factors that

1.3.1 Consideration, analysis and forecast of external factors when choosing a strategy

When choosing a strategy, it is necessary to consider both the impact of this strategy on the environment and the impact on the enterprise from the external environment.

When preparing a plan, it is necessary to provide for those events that may not happen as expected, and slow down the movement towards the goal. It makes sense to know in advance where this might happen and think about ways to prevent possible damage. For purposes strategic analysis a technique for taking into account external factors, called “Analysis of STEP - factors”, is applied. The abbreviation STEP (STEP) is made up of the first letters of the words: Social (Social), Technological (Technological), Economic (Economic), Political (Political). This is a mnemonic - just a simple way to remember the factors that affect the organization.

Social factors include, for example, the human factor, which is characterized by a certain number of indicators of living standards, including average per capita income, subsistence minimum, average salary. People grow up in a particular society, which forms their basic views, values and norms of behavior. Almost without realizing it, they perceive a worldview that determines their relationship to themselves and relationships with each other. The features of the social structure are influenced by factors that at first glance do not have a significant impact on the economy of the enterprise:

Strong commitment to core traditional cultural values;

Subculture within a single culture;

Temporary changes in secondary life values;

Opinion of married couples about the size of the family;

People's attitudes towards the use of alcoholic beverages.

The first of these factors affects most organizations. Planning for this changing factor is critical.

Technological factors.

One of the influential forces that determine the fate of an enterprise is technical and applied science. The attitude towards the scientific and technical complex depends on whether a person admires its miracles or is rather amazed at its blunders. Any scientific and technological innovation is fraught with major long-term consequences that are not always foreseeable. Changes in technology affect almost all organizations and businesses and need to be accounted for. The following products did not exist 20 years ago:

Personal computers;

CDs;

Digital audio tape recorders;

Video cameras;

fax machines;

Industrial robots;

These achievements owe their success to progress in microelectronics. The influence of microelectronics technologies has significantly increased on the sphere retail. Many industry leaders have noted that retailers who do not keep up with the latest technology will be pushed to the margins of business life.

The head of the enterprise should closely monitor the leading trends within the scientific and technical complex and take into account the following points when planning the activities of the enterprise:

Acceleration of scientific and technological progress;

The emergence of limitless possibilities;

Growth in R&D spending;

Increasing attention to the introduction of small improvements in existing products;

Tightening state control over good quality and safety of goods.

Economic forces.

In addition to the people themselves, their purchasing power is also important for the markets. The general level of purchasing power depends on the level of current income, prices, savings and credit availability. Purchasing power is affected by economic downturns, high unemployment, rising costs of borrowing, and:

the exchange rate of the national currency, the level of payment on mortgages, the level of inflation, the economic cycle. Which factor is more important for a particular enterprise - the exchange rate or the interest rate - is determined by the profile of its market. Of course, the so-called economic cycle, a period of upswing or downswing in the economy, has a significant impact. Few companies can resist general business trends. Higher interest rates could cut back on loans, and lower mortgage payments would affect not only the real estate industry, but those sellers and entrepreneurs whose income depends on people moving out of their homes.

political factors.

Marketing decisions are strongly influenced by events in the political environment. This environment is made up of legal codes, government agencies and influential groups of the public that influence various organizations and individuals and limit their freedom of action within society.

The macro-environment of the firm also includes such factors as the demographic environment, the legal environment, and the natural environment.

demographic environment.

Demography is a science that studies the population in terms of its size, density, etc. For marketers, demographics are of great interest because markets are made up of people. The most significant demographic trends:

Decreased birth rate;

Population aging;

family changes;

Population migration.

natural environment.

In the 1960s, there was a growing public concern about whether industrial activity in developed countries was destroying the natural environment. Vigilance groups and movements sprang up, and concerned legislators began to put forward various measures to protect the environment. Changes in the environment also affect the goods that firms produce and offer to the market:

Shortage of certain types of raw materials;

Rise in the cost of energy;

Growth of environmental pollution;

Decisive state intervention in the process of rational use and reproduction natural resources.

Legal environment.

All activities (particularly in the field of marketing) are increasingly influenced by the legal environment:

Legislation to regulate entrepreneurial activity;

Increasing demands from government agencies that enforce laws;

Growth in the number of public interest groups.

Given the importance of taking into account STEP - factors for planning the activities of an enterprise, it is necessary not only to analyze them, but also to purposefully forecast them. Forecasting the external environment, or auditing the external environment, gained importance in the early 1980s, especially as organizations expanded the scope of forecasting research to include causal factors. For example, predicting the development of technology has become especially important since microelectronics has penetrated most areas of production.

Most forecasts are based on four main forecasting methods:

The study of opinions

Count,

Extrapolation of statistical trends,

Finding a relationship between two or more statistical variables.

External environment The organization is divided into two groups of factors: the external environment and the competitive environment. Some factors affect others and vice versa. But without certain means and methods of structuring, there is a danger that the analysis will become a mess, and important factors will be ignored.

Equally important is the analysis and forecast of the competitive environment, which include the study of all components of the competitive environment.

Keywords

BANKRUPTCY / ENTERPRISE / INSOLVENCY / FORECASTING / LOGISTIC REGRESSION/ BANKRUPTCY / ENTERPRISE / INSOLVENCY / FORECAST / LOGIT MODEL

annotation scientific article on economics and business, author of scientific work - Fedorova E.A., Lazarev M.P., Fedin A.V.

Subject. The financial stability of the company is one of the requirements to satisfy its owners, investors, shareholders and other stakeholders. If the financial condition of the enterprise deteriorates, this can often lead to its bankruptcy. By analyzing the deteriorating factors of the micro and macro environment, it is possible to predict bankruptcy in advance and take effective measures to prevent it. The article discusses the factors influencing the risk of bankruptcy, and also presents a model of its forecasting. Goals. Identify external and internal factors, in the most more affecting the risk of bankruptcy, and build a model forecasting bankruptcy of construction companies. Methodology. The method used in the work logistic regression, with the help of which the factors most influencing the bankruptcy of companies were identified; also built a model forecasting bankruptcy. The resulting model is formed on the basis of data from medium and small enterprises in the construction industry. Results. Identified internal and external factors that have a significant impact on the bankruptcy of enterprises. Internal factors include: absolute liquidity ratio, return on sales, return on invested capital, ratio of total liabilities to total assets, ratio of current assets to total assets, accounts payable turnover. The external factor that has the greatest impact on bankruptcy is the increase in lending. Model built forecasting bankruptcy of medium and small enterprises . Thus, the expected influence of indicators was confirmed. financial condition enterprises on its bankruptcy, as well as the influence of environmental factors. Conclusions. The resulting model forecasting bankruptcy will allow managers, shareholders, potential investors and other stakeholders to monitor the current state of the company and predict the likelihood of its bankruptcy .

Forecasting the entity""s failure in line with the operating environment factors

Importance The article discusses factors that influence the failure risk, and presents a model to forecast it. Objectives The research identifies external and internal factors that influence the bankruptcy risk most of all, and builds up a model to forecast the bankruptcy of construction enterprises. Methods The research involved a method of logistic regression, which helped to detect the above factors, and built up a model to forecast the bankruptcy . The model relies upon data of medium-sized and small construction entities. Results We found internal and external factors that had a considerable impact on the enterprises" bankruptcy . We also build up a model to project the bankruptcy scenario of medium-sized and small enterprises. Thus, we verified the presumable impact of financial indicators on the entity "s failure , and factors of the operating environment. Conclusions and Relevance The forecasting bankruptcy model will help managers, shareholders, would-be investors and other stakeholders to monitor the current position of the company and project possible bankruptcy .

The text of the scientific work on the topic "Forecasting the bankruptcy of an enterprise, taking into account environmental factors"

ISSN 2311-8768 (Online) ISSN 2073-4484 (Print)

Mathematical analysis and modeling in economics

FORECASTING THE BANKRUPTCY OF AN ENTERPRISE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT FACTORS OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT Elena Anatolyevna FEDOROV 3^, Mikhail Petrovich LAZAREV, Alexander Vladimirovich FEDINS

a doctor economic sciences, Professor of the Department of Corporate Finance and corporate governance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation [email protected]

PhD in Physics and Mathematics, Associate Professor of the Department of Corporate Finance and Corporate Governance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation [email protected]

student of the Department of Corporate Finance and Corporate Governance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation [email protected]

Article history:

Adopted on September 21, 2016 Adopted in revised form on October 6, 2016 Approved on October 24, 2016

UDC 338.12 JEL: D24

Keywords:

bankruptcy, enterprise, insolvency, forecasting, logistic regression

annotation

Subject. The financial stability of a company is one of the requirements to satisfy its owners, investors, shareholders and other stakeholders. If the financial condition of the enterprise deteriorates, this can often lead to its bankruptcy. By analyzing the deteriorating factors of the micro- and macroenvironment, it is possible to predict bankruptcy in advance and take effective measures to prevent it. The article discusses the factors influencing the risk of bankruptcy, and also presents a model for its forecasting.

Goals. To identify external and internal factors that have the greatest impact on the risk of bankruptcy, as well as to build a model for predicting the bankruptcy of enterprises in the construction industry.

Methodology. In the work, the method of logistic regression was used, with the help of which the factors most influencing the bankruptcy of companies were identified; a bankruptcy forecasting model was also built. The resulting model is formed on the basis of data from medium and small enterprises in the construction industry. Results. Identified internal and external factors that have a significant impact on the bankruptcy of enterprises. Internal factors include: absolute liquidity ratio, return on sales, return on invested capital, ratio of total liabilities to total assets, ratio of current assets to total assets, accounts payable turnover. The external factor that has the greatest impact on bankruptcy is the increase in lending. A model for predicting the bankruptcy of medium and small enterprises has been built. Thus, the expected influence of the indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise on its bankruptcy, as well as the influence of environmental factors, was confirmed. Conclusions. The resulting bankruptcy forecasting model will allow managers, shareholders, potential investors and other stakeholders to monitor the current state of the company and predict the probability of its bankruptcy.

Currently, there are many works devoted to the problem of predicting the probability of bankruptcy. All studies in this area can be divided into three groups. The first group includes works focused on studying a specific model and comparing its effectiveness with alternative approaches. The second group includes studies of choosing the optimal set of financial variables that can increase the predictive power of the model under study. Examples of such studies are the works of W. Beaver,

E. Altman, R. Taffler. It is the choice of variables that is an important part of the bankruptcy forecasting process. The third group consists of works devoted to the study of insolvency forecasting taking into account various external factors. Thus, many Russian scientists in their writings are trying to adapt foreign methods to the modern realities of our country, taking into account its political, economic and social characteristics. Also, recently, works have gained great popularity,

studying the industry specifics of enterprises in the issue of predicting the probability of bankruptcy, among which are the studies of E.A. Fedorova, E.V. Gilenko, S.E. Dovzhenko, B.B. Demesheva, A.S. Tikhonova. Experts note that the more clarifying information about the enterprise is included in the model, the higher its predictive power. This study considers the forecasting of the probability of bankruptcy of companies, taking into account external factors, respectively, it will belong to the third group.

Hypothesis 1. Indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise affect the bankruptcy of the company. The influence of the asset turnover ratio on bankruptcy was studied by M. Karas and M. Reznakova. They came to the conclusion: the higher the value of the coefficient, the lower the probability of bankruptcy. This is also confirmed in the work of Yu.A. Danilova, who built a predictive model using logistic regression.

In the study of M.N. Alif noted that companies with a high asset turnover ratio are more likely to go bankrupt. The influence of the quick liquidity ratio was studied by M. Karas and M. Reznakova, who came to the conclusion that the higher the ratio, the lower the probability of bankruptcy. Without liquidity, a company will not be able to meet its short-term obligations as they fall due, argue K. Petersen and T. Plönborg, and that liquidity risk depends on the company's ability to generate positive net cash flows in the short and long term. They believe that solvency risk refers to a company's ability to meet its long-term financial obligations as well as all future obligations. Short-term funding problems are easier to overcome than long-term ones, because short-term problems are often resolved by creating a compelling action plan to enable a financially unstable firm to obtain the necessary funding from shareholders and creditors, while long-term problems require more careful planning. long term planning and restructuring.

Thus, K. Petersen and T. Plenborg came to the conclusion that companies that have problems with liquidity and solvency are likely candidates for bankruptcy.

An increase in the current liquidity ratio reduces the risk of bankruptcy, M.E. Zmievsky. A review of it allows us to conclude that the bankruptcy of an enterprise depends on the rate of return on assets. With the growth of this indicator, the probability of bankruptcy decreases.

In their study, M. Mironyuk and A. Taran found that in efficient companies, a decrease in the value of the operating margin gives significant positive results. Net return on assets, oddly enough, insolvent companies is at a higher level.

In the work of M.N. Kochugueva, N.N. Kiseleva and S.M. Anpilov conducted an analysis of external and internal factors of bankruptcy on the example of Russian companies. They identified the internal and external factors of company bankruptcy and built their own method for predicting its onset using logit analysis. The objects of study are large Russian companies with an annual revenue of more than 500 million rubles. The authors concluded that with an increase in the return on assets, the probability of bankruptcy decreases. They identified and ranked factors that could predict bankruptcy and suggested that there was a significant relationship between financial ratios and bankruptcy risk. Financial indicators were ranked depending on their ability to predict the risk of bankruptcy and the main parameters describing the bankruptcy of enterprises were identified:

Return on assets (it significantly distinguishes companies with and without financial difficulties);

Information about current activities;

Operating result;

The nature and amount of expenses.

For 2009-2013 20 non-bankrupt enterprises were selected. The study was carried out using three methods: multiple discriminant analysis, non-parametric analysis, the method of artificial neural networks.

financial activity companies analyzed A.T. Al-Kassar and D.S. Salt, who concluded that out of 25 financial ratios considered by them, 7 directly affect the bankruptcy of enterprises. These include:

1) net turnover ratio working capital;

2) the ratio of turnover to accounts receivable;

3) the ratio of current assets to liabilities;

4) current liquidity ratio;

5) the ratio of current liabilities to assets;

6) absolute liquidity ratio;

7) the ratio of profit before taxation to current liabilities.

Hypothesis 2. External factors influence the bankruptcy of an enterprise.

In his work, M.N. Alifa writes that the scientist I.Kh. Mohmad studied the influence of macroeconomic factors on the bankruptcy of enterprises. According to I.Kh. Mohmad, gross domestic product (GDP) is the most significant factor influencing bankruptcy. The impact of GDP on the bankruptcy of enterprises is recognized as huge in the work of P. Bann and W. Redwood. Also M.N. Alifa notes that M.M. Al-Darazi and K.E. Mitcham believe that the stock index has a huge impact on bankruptcy. At the same time, S. Hol singles out the money supply as the main macroeconomic factor of bankruptcy. M.N. Alifa spent time among traders in Malaysia and came to the conclusion that high lending rates could lead companies to bankruptcy. Factors such as economic growth, the company's market share distinguish M.N. Kochugueva, N.N. Kiseleva and S.M. Anpilov. As the economy grows, the probability of bankruptcy decreases. It also decreases with the growth of the company's market share.

Scientists B.T. Kloster and H.D. Jacobson consider the following factors influencing bankruptcy:

Domestic demand (measured using GDP or unemployment rate);

external demand;

Competitiveness (measured using the current exchange rate);

Interest rate without the influence of inflation;

The number of all enterprises in the industry and the number of new enterprises in it;

Inflation.

As a result of the study, they found that to a greater extent bankruptcy is influenced by the interest rate without the influence of inflation, as well as cyclical fluctuations in the economy.

General factors leading enterprises to bankruptcy were studied by S.B. Ouiduani, and concluded that higher inflation increases the likelihood of an enterprise going bankrupt if the enterprise is no longer able to take out a loan. Most often, such a problem is faced by newly opened enterprises.

We will build a model using an example construction companies. R. Kangari can be considered the first scientist who conducted a comprehensive study of the bankruptcy of enterprises in the construction industry. He attributes the construction industry's vulnerability to bankruptcies to its fragmented and competitive environment. The construction industry is more competitive than many other industries, especially due to the ease of entry for new players. The purpose of his research is to study the mechanism of financial insolvency of construction companies. To do this, he used decades of data from bankrupt companies in the construction industry. His research proves that the bankruptcy rate in the construction industry will increase with an increase in the number of active construction companies in a relatively stable environment. Therefore, in his opinion, in order to assess the probability of bankruptcy for construction companies, the annual data obtained by considering the total number of active construction companies should be related to the number of possible bankruptcies. As a result, he determined the percentage of bankruptcies as the best indicator of the bankruptcy of enterprises in the construction industry. According to his research, the factors affecting the percentage of bankruptcy of construction companies include:

Number of enterprises in the industry;

Interest rates;

Inflation;

New business activity.

For each of these factors, R. Kangari used various US indices to model his data to predict the overall outlook for bankruptcies:

the federal interim loan rate as a measure of the interest rate;

Contract evaluation index for F.W. Dodge (a division of the American media holding McGraw-Hill) as a measure of construction activity;

Conventional fixed long-term mortgage rates as a measure of the interest rate in residential construction;

Construction cost index as a measure of inflation;

The number of new businesses in the industry entered during each year, as a measure of new business activity.

Thus, in the works of scientists, the following external factors were identified:

money supply;

Stock index;

Number of enterprises in the industry;

Interest rates;

Inflation;

Unemployment rate;

New business activity;

Credit rate;

The economic growth;

The company's market share.

All of them in one way or another affect the probability of bankruptcy.

Literature review allows you to identify dependent variables for each of the hypotheses. The indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise include turnover indicators (16 indicators), liquidity indicators (3 indicators), indicators

financial stability(21 indicators), profitability indicators (15 indicators). The authors divided the external factors into two groups: the microenvironment of the organization (11 factors) and the macroenvironment of the organization (48 factors).

Methodology

The algorithm for creating a logit model for diagnosing the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises in the construction industry involves the sequential implementation of the following steps:

1) formation of an array of bankrupt and non-bankrupt enterprises;

2) system formation financial indicators affecting the risk of bankruptcy;

3) creation of a logit-model for diagnosing the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises in the construction industry.

Empirical base of research

The sample was formed using several information systems: the RUSLANA database, the SKRIN database, and the SPARK database.

At the first step, a sample of bankrupt enterprises was collected. In the study, they were understood as companies for which a notice of a judicial act was published at least once, as a result of which a decision was made to declare the debtor bankrupt and open bankruptcy proceedings.

Search strategy for bankrupt enterprises using information system RUSLANA is presented in Table. one.

Further, the set of bankrupt enterprises formed in this way was combined with the list obtained by using the SKRIN and SPARK databases. At the pre-processing stage, information on the selected enterprises was brought together into a single database using the Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications programming language in Microsoft Excel. At the same time, for insolvent companies, the data was taken one year before their actual bankruptcy, and for financially healthy organizations - for the latest available date. After the completion of the data pre-processing stage, the authors faced the task of cleaning the sample population from statistical outliers. Note that the initial set of panel data

As a result, a data set was obtained, consisting of 220 Russian small and medium-sized companies in the construction industry, among which there were 77 bankrupts.

On the basis of these indicators, a linux-model for diagnosing the risk of bankruptcy is developed, where the dependent variable will be a binary variable reflecting the status of the enterprise. It will take the value 1 if the company is bankrupt by decision arbitration court, and value 0 if the enterprise is not bankrupt. A value in the range from 0 to 1 will indicate the probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise in 1 year.

Part of the data array (80%) was used to build models. On the remaining 20%, models were tested, their effectiveness was checked.

Regression analysis results

The study developed a bankruptcy forecasting model for medium and small enterprises in the construction industry with different sets of financial ratios by constructing a logistic regression.

The remaining indicators were tested for significance by the p-validation method and those whose significance level was less than 0.15 were selected.

The matrix of paired correlation coefficients of these indicators is shown in fig. 1, and the results of the analysis of the indicators of the companies remaining after all the screening procedures are in Table. 2, 3.

Probability of the null hypothesis (< 0,15) позволяет сделать вывод о сильном влиянии показателей на зависимую переменную г, то есть все семь коэффициентов являются важными и не могут быть исключены из модели.

The standard error of a regression measures the amount (square) of the error per power

model freedom. It is used as the main measure for measuring the quality of model estimation. The error value of 0.194895 allows us to conclude that the developed model is of high quality.

The value of the coefficient of determination R2 McFadden, equal to 0.705232, indicates that the constructed model explains almost all the variability of the dependent variable by the variability of the predictors (independent variables).

Also, the quality of the model allows you to check the likelihood ratio test. Since the significance levels of the LR statistics turned out to be equal to zero, therefore, all coefficients of the model are significant and the model is qualitative.

For 20% of the array, the model showed a prediction accuracy of 86.75%.

The equation has the form: A (2 \u003d 1 / (1 + e "2).

Using the calculated coefficients, we obtain the equation:

2 = 1 160.008331X1 - 7.990865408X2 -

9.013161758X3 + 0.001942978816X4 -

2.809532299X5 + 3.773190336X6 -

0.1343224635X7 - 172.1930777,

where X! - increase in the volume of lending; X2 - absolute liquidity ratio;

Xz - profitability of sales;

Xl, - return on invested capital;

X5 - total liabilities to total assets;

X6 - current assets to total assets;

XI - accounts payable turnover.

If 2 > 0, then the enterprise is considered bankrupt.

The increase in lending is calculated as follows:

where OK is the volume of lending for the current year; OK - 1 - the volume of lending for the previous year.

Small and medium enterprises are more dependent on the volume of lending. Many firms that have recently entered the industry make small profits. As a result, situations arise when an enterprise, due to a lack of free cash, cannot produce products and sell them. In this case, one of key roles plays the volume of lending. Thus, the analysis of the influence of external factors on the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises revealed that the volume of lending has the greatest impact on bankruptcy. Lending is vital for almost all small and medium enterprises, and small ones to a greater extent.

The absolute liquidity ratio is the share of short-term liabilities that can be immediately repaid with available cash and cash equivalents and short-term financial investments. Calculated as

net income indicator, so ROS will be calculated using the formula

ros= Net profit/Revenue.

The normal value of the profitability of sales is determined by industry and other features of the organization. In the studied array, the majority of bankrupt enterprises have a negative return on sales. With the growth of this indicator, the risk of bankruptcy decreases, thus, there is an inverse relationship between the profitability of sales and the risk of bankruptcy.

Return on invested capital. This indicator provides information on how effectively the company's management invests in its core activities. The return on invested capital is the return on the amount of money invested in the project. It is calculated according to the formula

EBIT - R n IC

where Ka.l - absolute liquidity ratio;

DS - cash;

FVK - short-term financial investments;

OK - short-term liabilities.

A coefficient value of more than 0.2 is considered normal. The higher the indicator, the better the solvency of the enterprise. However, too high value indicator signals an irrational capital structure: a large proportion of non-performing assets in the form of cash and funds in accounts. Based on the studied sample of enterprises, it is impossible to draw an unambiguous conclusion about the impact of this indicator alone on the bankruptcy of enterprises. The absolute liquidity ratio makes a great contribution to predicting bankruptcy in the constructed model.

Profitability of sales. This indicator of the financial performance of the organization shows what proportion of profit is in the company's revenue. When calculating the financial result, many profit indicators can be used, so there are various variations in the profitability of sales. The constructed model uses

EBIT - earnings before interest and taxes (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes);

Rn.p. - income tax expenses;

IC - the average investment capital for the period in terms of book value.

An analysis of the array of enterprises revealed that with the growth of this indicator, the risk of bankruptcy decreases. Thus, there is an inverse relationship between ROIC and bankruptcy risk.

Total liabilities to total assets. It is calculated as the ratio of total liabilities and total assets and shows how much debt is attracted per unit of total assets. In other words, the indicator shows what proportion of the company's assets is financed by loans.

Current assets to total assets. The indicator is calculated as the ratio of current assets to total assets. This indicator, as well as the absolute liquidity ratio, in isolation cannot definitely indicate the risk of bankruptcy. It also needs to be investigated directly in the model.

The turnover of accounts payable is calculated as the ratio of the cost and the average for the period of accounts payable and

reflects the turnover of accounts payable (at cost). In other words, the ratio shows how many turnovers the company's debts are paid for. A high turnover of accounts payable may indicate an improvement in the payment discipline of the enterprise. This indicator also has a great influence on predicting the risk of bankruptcy in the model.

For healthy organizations - 88.89%;

For bankrupts - 84.62%;

The overall probability is 86.75%.

To compare the predictive ability of the developed model with some existing ones, the authors tested them on a sample of companies in the construction industry. The results showed that the author's model showed the highest average accuracy. This is explained by the fact

that models built on the data of enterprises of all industries cannot be sufficiently accurate in a particular industry, due to the fact that they do not take into account its specifics.

The developed model showed high accuracy of bankruptcy forecasting. Assessing its positive aspects, it is worth noting that it is really complex, as it contains a number of key factors that characterize the organization's activities from various angles, including the macroeconomic situation in the country, the industry specifics of the organization, and the dynamics of the scale of its activities. In addition, the model was originally developed for domestic organizations and allows them to be taken into account. qualitative indicators and features of the activity. At the same time, the authors emphasize that it is recommended to periodically calculate the final indicator in accordance with the proposed model and analyze its dynamics. Thus, the financial manager will be able to determine in which direction the company is developing and take effective measures to prevent bankruptcy in a timely manner.

Table 1

Main selection criteria for forming a sample of insolvent enterprises from the RUSLANA database

Key selection criteria to form the sample of insolvent enterprises from RUSLANA database

Criteria Description

Operating area Russian Federation

activities

Status Three states: - operating enterprise (bankruptcy procedure); - inactive enterprise (bankruptcy); - liquidated (bankruptcy).

Legal form NOT Branch; NOT a Sole Proprietor.

Fields of application of the equipment. Classification and categories of equipment execution. The concept of external influencing factors.

Radio engineering products have found application in space technology, in television, in aircraft construction, in satellite and spacecraft control apparatus, in devices for studying the physiological properties of the human body, for automatic control of production processes in various industries, in household appliances etc.

Under external influencing factors (WWF) we will understand the phenomena, process or environment external to the product or its constituent parts, which cause or may cause limitation or loss of the working state of the product during operation 2 .

VVF are divided into the following types:

mechanical VVF(noise, mechanical shock, water hammer, aerodynamic shock, sonic shock, shock wave, seismic impact, earthquake impact, seismic impact, pitching, roll, trim, mechanical vibrations, vibration, random vibrations (vibration), harmonic vibrations (vibration), mechanical pressure, static pressure, dynamic pressure);

climatic WWF(atmospheric precipitation, atmospheric precipitation, atmospheric condensate precipitation, sea fog, static (s) dust (sand), dynamic (s) dust (sand), wind, sea water corrosive agent, soil environment corrosive agent , corrosive agent of the environment, thermal shock, atmospheric pressure, integral solar radiation);

biological WWF- Organisms or their communities that have external influences and cause a violation of the serviceable and operable state of the product (bacteria, mold fungus, fouling);

WWF Special Media. Special media - inorganic and organic compounds, oils, lubricants, solvents, fuels, working solutions, working fluids, external to the product, which cause or may cause limitation or loss of the product's operable state during operation or storage (filling medium, working fluid , test medium, working solution, radioactive aerosol);

thermal WWF(thermal shock, radiation heating, electrical heating, ultrasonic heating, aerodynamic heating);

WWF of electromagnetic fields(laser radiation)

There are stability, strength and resistance to the effects of VVF.

Product resistance to VVFduring action

Product strength to WWF- the property of the product to maintain a working state after exposure on it a certain WWF within the specified values.

Product resistance to VVF- the property of the product to maintain a working state during and after exposure on a product of a certain WWF during the entire service life within the specified values.

The operating conditions of various types of radio products and equipment based on them significantly depend on the climatic features of the area where they will work, on the type of object (ship, aircraft, satellite, etc.) on which they are installed, and other reasons.

In accordance with the accepted classification, Table 3.1 lists climatic regions.

Table 13.4

Climatic versions of products	Designations*
	alphabetic		digital
		latin
Products intended for use in land, rivers, lakes
For a macroclimatic region with a temperate climate**
For macroclimatic regions with temperate and cold climates**
For a macroclimatic region with a humid tropical climate***
For a macroclimatic region with a dry tropical climate***
For macroclimatic regions with both dry and humid tropical climate***
For all macroclimatic regions on land, except for a macroclimatic region with a very cold climate (general climatic version)
Products intended for operation in macroclimatic regions with maritime climate
For a macroclimatic region with a moderately cold maritime climate
For a macro-climatic region with a tropical maritime climate, including coastal vessels or other vessels intended for navigation only in this region
For macroclimatic regions with both moderately cold and tropical maritime climates, including ships with an unlimited navigation area
Products intended for operation in all macroclimatic regions on land and at sea, except for a macroclimatic region with a very cold climate (all-climatic version)

* In parentheses are the designations previously adopted in the technical documentation of some CMEA countries.

** Products in U and UHL versions can be operated in warm humid, hot dry and very hot dry climatic regions in accordance with GOST 16350, in which the average of the annual absolute maximum air temperatures is above 40 ° C and (or) a combination of temperatures equal to or above 20 °C, and relative humidity equal to or above 80%, observed more than 12 hours a day for a continuous period of more than two months a year.

Specific types or groups of exported or other products for a macroclimatic subregion with a warm temperate climate are allowed to be manufactured in the climatic version TU, if the design differences between the products of this version and the products of the U climatic version are technically and economically justified.

*** Specified executions can be designated by the term "tropical execution".

**** If the main purpose of the products is operation in an area with a cold climate and it is not economically feasible to use them outside this area, the designation HL (F) is recommended instead of the UHL designation.

Products are intended for operation in one or more macroclimatic regions and are manufactured in climatic versions indicated in Table 13.1. Several macroclimatic regions can be combined into a group of macroclimatic regions (for example, UHL, T).

Thus, each product can have a climatic version corresponding to the indicated regions and abbreviated with the same letters that indicate the region.

If the product is intended to work:

how wet, and dry tropical climate, then such a performance is denoted by the letter T;

workable performance in all climatic regions on land, denoted by the letter O;

for all sea areas- the letter M;

for all areas on land and at sea- the letter B.

The division of the surface of the globe into climatic regions is carried out according to the following criteria:

to areas with temperate climate include areas in which the air temperature ranges from +40 to minus 45 ºС;

to areas with cold climate include areas in which the minimum temperature is below minus 45 ºС;

To the macroclimatic region with Antarctic cold climate include areas where the average minimum temperature is below minus 60 ºС (Central Antarctica).

areas where the temperature is more than 20 ºС in combination with high relative humidity (more than 80%) is observed for at least 12 hours a day continuously for at least two consecutive months, are classified as areas with humid tropical climate.

If the air temperature exceeds +40 ºС, and the humidity is below the norms specified in the previous paragraph, then such a climate is called tropical dry;

to areas with moderately cold maritime climate include the seas and oceans located north of 30 ° north latitude and south of 30 ° south latitude, provided that the temperature in them does not fall below minus 45 ºС;

in sea areas located between 30° north latitude and 30° south latitude, the climate tropical marine.

If the blocks (parts) of the equipment belong to different classification groups, then they are subject to the requirements of resistance, strength and resistance to WWF according to the belonging of the block (part) of the equipment to the corresponding classification group.

The macroclimatic regions of the globe are shown on the map in Figure 13.1.

Figure 13.6 - Macroclimatic regions of the globe

Table 13.5

Types of climates of the globe, their designations and criteria for distinguishing

	Designation			Criteria for delineation
Climate type		English	Average value from the annual absolute minima of air temperature, °C		Average value from annual absolute maxima of air temperature, °С	Combination of values annual average relative humidity - mean annual temperature, classification group number	Geographic coordinate, degrees of latitude
Antarctic cold			Below minus 60
extreme cold			Below minus 50 to minus 60 inclusive.
Cold			Below minus 45 to minus 50 inclusive.
cold temperate			Below minus 25 to minus 45 inclusive.
warm temperate			minus 25 and above
Warm dry temperate			Below minus 10 to minus 25 inclusive.
Warm transitional			minus 10 and above
Soft warm dry			minus 10 and above
Extreme warm dry
warm humid
Warm moist uniform
cold marine			Below minus 30
temperate maritime			minus 30 and above				30 or more
tropical marine

In accordance with the operating conditions of the equipment and the type of room or shelter in which it is located, the equipment is divided into five categories.

Equipment (products) in the versions indicated in Table 13.1, depending on the location during operation in the air at altitudes up to 4300 m (including underground and under water), are manufactured according to the product placement categories indicated in Table 13.3.

Table 13.6


Characteristic	Designation	Characteristic	Designation (decimal)
For operationoutdoors(impact of a combination of climatic factors characteristic of a given macroclimatic region)		For storage during operation in category 4 rooms and work both in category 4 conditions and (for a short time) in other conditions, including outdoors
For indoor or outdoor use(volumes), where fluctuations in temperature and humidity do not differ significantly from fluctuations in the open air and there is relatively free access to outside air, e.g. in tents, car bodies, trailers, metal rooms without thermal insulation, as well as in the shell of a complete product category 1 (no direct exposure to solar radiation and precipitation)		For operation as built-in elements inside complete products of categories 1; 1.1; 2, the design of which excludes the possibility of moisture condensation on the built-in elements
For operation in enclosed spaces (volumes) with natural ventilationwithout artificially controlled climatic conditions, where temperature and humidity fluctuations and exposure to sand and dust are significantly less than outdoors, for example, in metal with thermal insulation, stone, concrete, wooden rooms (no exposure to precipitation, direct solar radiation; significant reduction in wind; significant reduction or absence of exposure to scattered solar radiation and moisture condensation)		For operation in irregularly heated rooms (volumes)
For operation in rooms (volumes) with artificially controlled climatic conditions, for example, in closed heated or cooled and ventilated industrial and other, including well-ventilated underground premises (no exposure to direct solar radiation, precipitation, wind, sand and dust from outdoor air; no or significant reduction in the impact of scattered solar radiation and moisture condensation )		For use in air-conditioned or partially air-conditioned rooms
		For operation in laboratory, capital residential and other similar premises
For operation in rooms (volumes) with high humidity(for example, in unheated and unventilated underground spaces, including mines, basements, in the soil, in such ship, ship and other spaces in which there may be a long-term presence of water or frequent condensation of moisture on walls and ceilings, in particular, in some holds , in some shops of textile, hydrometallurgical industries, etc.).		For use as built-in elements inside complete products of categories 5, the design of which excludes the possibility of moisture condensation on built-in elements(for example, inside electronic equipment)

For products intended for operation only in a non-air environment and (or) at atmospheric pressure less than 53.3 kPa (400 mm Hg), including at altitudes over 4300 m, the concept of product category is not used for all stages of operation. If the same product is intended for operation both in air at altitudes up to 4300 m, and in non-air environment and (or) at atmospheric pressure less than 53.3 kPa (400 mm Hg), including at altitudes more than 4300 m, then the concept of product category is used only for the stage of operation in the air at altitudes up to 4300 m.

The combination of execution, category and reduced pressure group is called " type of climatic modification » (for example, UHL4 climatic version or UHL2O4a climatic version). In the designation of the type of climatic modification of the product, the designation of the type of atmosphere for operation in which the product is intended is added, if this is indicated in the standards or technical specifications for the product.

To date, the process of identifying the prospects for the development of an enterprise, taking into account the influence of environmental factors, must be carried out using an analysis, the object of which is Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC and its subsidiary commercial enterprise- shop food products"Products". The subject of the study are internal and external mechanisms regulation of factors for increasing the efficiency of Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC.

The totality of the above factors and the assessment of their impact on economic activity are quite different, so in the process of management, the enterprise itself determines which factors, and to what extent, can affect the results of its activities in the current period and in future perspective. The conclusions of ongoing research or current events are accompanied by the development of specific tools and methods for making appropriate management decisions.

First of all, the activities of Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC are significantly influenced by competitors. The impact of competitors is associated with the geographical location of the enterprise "Irklievsky cooptorg" LLC, which is located in the very center of the district. It is surrounded by a number of direct intra-industry competitors that produce similar products and sell them in the same market. Competitiveness between these organizations is expressed in the analysis of comparing prices by product range between competitors, which shows the following arguments: Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC is not a leader in terms of prices, and many competitors set prices below the level, which, of course, cannot but affect the level demand. This result is due to the high cost of production compared to competitors, since much raw material has to be brought in rather than produced. The situation in terms of price competition allows Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC to slightly lag behind, and even surpass its competitors in some products. For example, due to the fact that a high level of demand for products eliminates price advantages, and the product range of Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC is higher than that of competitors. Therefore, these organizations do not meet the needs of their region, and Irklievsky cooptorg LLC successfully operates in this territory, supplying up to 10% of its products. Favorably emerging market conditions allow both the replacement of goods and its increase, which, while maintaining a steadily increased demand, can reduce the cost of production due to this.

To combat competition, a marketing strategy for the growth of Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC was introduced. The basis of this strategy for the growth of the enterprise was an analysis of the opportunities that LLC "Irklievsky cooptorg" can use with the current scale of activity (opportunities for intensive growth). To do this, it is recommended to use the product-market matrix.

Such a matrix indicates three main types of intensive growth opportunities: deep penetration into the market (finding ways for an enterprise to increase sales of its existing products on operating markets through aggressive marketing), market expansion (attempts by an enterprise to increase sales by introducing existing products to new markets), product improvement (attempts by an enterprise to increase sales by creating new or improved products for existing markets).

From the proposed strategies LLC "Irklievsky cooptorg" chooses - product promotion. The main method of promoting goods (products) is advertising. The main goal of the advertising policy is to increase the sale of products of Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC on the market. Advertising in printed publications will give buyers a fairly broad idea of the products of Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC. Advertising material must convince the consumer that Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC sells products in the interests of the buyer, and the product is the solution to his problems.

The promotional material must reflect competitive advantages Irklievsky cooptorg LLC: its exclusive field of activity, competitive products, popular trademark the quality of the goods sold.

The second group of external factors affecting the development of the enterprise - consumers. This individuals, households, as well as corporate consumers (enterprises) who use the goods and services of the enterprise - manufacturer to meet their needs.

Consumer analysis as a component immediate environment organization, its primary task is to build a profile of those who buy the product sold by the organization. Studying buyers allows you to better understand which product will be most accepted, how much sales the organization can expect, and how much buyers are committed to the product, how much you can expand the circle of potential buyers, what the future holds for the product, and much more.

LLC "Irklievsky cooptorg" has identified a number of factors that determine the trading power of the buyer, such factors include:

1. The ratio of the degree of dependence of the buyer on the seller with the degree of dependence of the seller on the buyer;
2. The volume of purchases carried out by the buyer:
- - the level of awareness of the buyer;
- - Availability of replacement products;
- - the cost for the buyer to switch to another seller;
3. The sensitivity of the buyer to the price, depending on the total cost of his purchases, his focus on a particular brand, the presence of certain requirements for the quality of the goods, his profits, the incentive system and the responsibility of those who make the decision to purchase.

Thus, the whole variety of external factors is reflected in the consumer and through him effectively influences the organization, its goals and strategy. Hypothetically, the influence of each consumer strongly affects the activities of the enterprise, since it is the consumer who “votes with the ruble” for the product or service of the enterprise. also the consumer to have a serious impact on the achievement of the company's market goal. Irklievsky cooptorg LLC orients its marketing strategies to large groups of consumers, on which it is most dependent. Various associations and associations of consumers are also important, influencing not only demand, but also the image of the enterprise.

Methodology of ways to improve and improve the efficiency of LLC "Irklievsky cooptorg" taking into account environmental factors.

In order to offer any innovations to improve efficiency, it is necessary to note the fact that now none of the successfully operating enterprises in the market ignores the influence of the external environment. So today, leaders of different ranks are generally aware of the importance of the external environment and the great influence of its factors on the economic and social development their enterprises. At the same time, the main attention is paid to the factors of the microenvironment of organizations that have a direct direct impact.

In general, it can be noted that at Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC, the heads of the enterprise and structural divisions are aware of the events and changes taking place during external environment, because they constantly feel its influence in their daily activities and receive information about it from various sources.

However, the analysis of the external environment is not the dominant task of these structural divisions, therefore, managers have insufficient information about environmental factors, it is not always reliable or does not reach them in time.

For the above reasons, in order to increase the efficiency of the analysis of the external environment at Irklievsky Cooptorg LLC, it is necessary to use the following set of research on this problem, using a logical sequence of steps and procedures.

At the first stage, it is necessary to establish the strategic goal of the analysis, which should be the regular and timely provision of various information about the external environment to the heads of the enterprise and structural divisions when making managerial decisions.

Then a research program should be developed, which defines the necessary information, sources and methods for its collection and analysis, methods for predicting environmental factors.

The next step should be the search and collection of information about the external environment for the development and adoption strategic decisions. When collecting external information it is necessary to use various newspapers, magazines, official publications, reference books, collections, catalogues, other print advertisements, legal reference systems, and the Internet.

After collecting information, it must be processed accordingly: first, check for reliability and consistency, then systematize according to individual factors external environment so that it can be conveniently analyzed and stored.

All collected, processed and analyzed information should be stored in databases on consumers, suppliers, competitors and the macro environment as a whole. They should be designed in such a way that they can provide information about the external environment to different users with the level of detail they need. All databases should be interconnected with each other and should be updated as new information becomes available, including during monitoring.

Based on the foregoing, we can conclude that the only correct behavior modern enterprise to achieve effective long-term functioning and successful development is to pay increased attention to the implementation of the analysis of the external environment. This requires the development and implementation complex analysis taking into account the individual characteristics of the enterprise with appropriate personnel, financial and technical support. Only under this condition can we count on the effectiveness of strategic and operational management decisions.

Organization classification

Organizations are classified depending on the features underlying the classification. These can be sizes, forms of ownership, sources of financing, functions, goals, types of activities, technologies used, etc. The classification of the proposal by the Canadian professor G. Mintzbert was widely known. Subject to type organizational structure, degrees of centralization and specialization, he gave the following list.

Entrepreneurial organization. It is characterized by a relatively simple structure, an undeveloped management hierarchy, little formalization of activities, and small size, the ability to quickly update. In such an organization, the role of the leader, who exercises coordination and control, is great.

Machine bureaucracy (organization as a machine). High degree of rationalization and standardization production activities not requiring highly professional training, hierarchy and centralization of management. widespread in mass production.

professional organization. A bureaucratic organization characterized by a high professional level of specialists (we are talking about universities, hospitals, schools, etc.). The complex structure of such organizations requires decentralization of management and great independence in the work of specialists.

Diversified (divisional) organization. Consists of relatively independent parts, commonly referred to as branches.

Innovative organization. It has an organizational structure with a low degree of formalization and a high level of horizontal specialization of highly professional activities (we are talking about the so-called adhocracy).

missionary organization. The basis of its activities is ideology, a high level of trust between members of the organization. There is a narrow specialization of workers, differentiation of duties, a significant level of standardization. These are relatively small organizations, as a rule, independent unions, whose members "profess the same ideology."

Political organization. Most character traits: inconsistency in the actions of individual parts, a high degree of conflict between the constituent parts, which, in other matters, does not affect their high vitality.

According to the typology of T. Parsonson, depending on the functions performed in society, organizations are divided into:

producing (create a product and services consumed by society),

political (pursuing political goals exercise power in society).

Integrative (their goal is the separation of social conflicts, ensuring the interaction of various parts of society: the church, certain public unions and other associations);

Organizations for maintaining samples (reproduce and develop traditions in the field of education, culture, etc.).

According to P. Blo and V. Scott, organizations should be classified depending on which part of society they serve. In particular, stand out:

organization of common benefit ( political parties, clubs, associations, professional associations, etc.)

business concerns (firms producing goods and services, trade, etc.)

supporting organizations (hospitals, clinics, schools, universities)

Public benefit organization government agencies, police, fire and rescue services, prisons)

R. Westram and H. Samaha consider three types of organization:

entrepreneurial;

· bureaucratic;

voluntary associations.

There are also formal and informal, governmental and non-governmental, economic and public, profitable and non-profit organizations.

A formal organization is an organization officially registered, operating on the basis of existing legislation and established regulations (such as a charter, regulation, pre-emptive agreement, and others). An organization that operates outside the framework of the law is classified as informal.

By type of activity, organizations can be divided into economic and public. Households produce products and services. These include production, research and production, intermediary and other organizations. In its turn production organizations can be industrial, transport, agricultural, etc.

Public organizations include political unions, parties, blocs, churches and other religious societies, trade unions, scientific, cultural and sports organizations, economic, human rights and others engaged in voluntary public activities.

Profitable organizations are those whose main goal is profit. Non-profitable ones, however, can also receive a certain profit, which goes to the existence and development of the organization (charitable foundations, religious and other public organizations).

According to the sources of funding, budgetary and non-budgetary organizations are distinguished. Non-budget organizations have other sources of their own funds. However, these organizations may, in certain cases, receive funds from the budget (directed as sources of funding). government programs projects, orders).

In accordance with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, there is state, municipal, private, mixed property and property of public organizations. On the basis of ownership, one can single out state, municipal, private, public organizations, as well as organizations with mixed ownership.

As world experience shows state organizations in different countries quite strongly differ in the degree of legal and economic independence, but in all cases they are (fully or partially) under the control of the state. Thus, in a number of Western European countries, with full budgetary financing, there are state enterprises mail, telegraph and other types of communication, transport, housing construction, extractive industries, energy and some other areas.

Private organizations include organizations created by individual enterprises (in the form of a partnership, cooperative, family or farm), as well as joint-stock companies, business companies or partnerships, if the authorized capital is formed from private contributions, contributions.

Organizations of mixed formal ownership are formed on the basis of a combination of its various types: state, private, foreign, etc. For example, mixed joint-stock companies, where, along with the participation of state capital, private and foreign investments are attracted, have become widespread in countries with a developed system of state regulation. In our country, at the turn of the 80-90s, they also began to create joint stock companies with the participation of foreign capital.

There are governmental and non-governmental organizations. The former include organizations that are created directly under the government in order to implement its policies (these are various funds, committees and commissions, for example, created to support and develop entrepreneurship, small business, and more). The second category includes independent initiative public organizations in the form of unions, centers, foundations, associations, associations, and parties. Often the goals of governmental and non-governmental organizations coincide.

Organizations are divided into small, medium and large sizes. The division in the legislation of many countries is based on such a criterion as the number of personnel.

Types of economic organizations.

The most common form of organization in world practice is a joint-stock company (corporation). Corporations are created in the most various fields economy: industry, transport, trade, banking and insurance. In this case, we will consider only those of them that work in the production and research and production areas.

A joint stock company (JSC) is an organization whose authorized capital is represented by shares. The owners of the latter can be various legal and individuals. Shareholders have the right to participate in management and receive part of the profit in the form of a dividend. As a rule, the JSC is managed by the board of directors (board of directors, administrative council, directorate), supervisory board and general meeting shareholders.

The process of corporatization of Russian enterprises, which began in 1990, developed widely after the adoption in 1992 of the first state privatization program.

Among the major production and economic organizations, such a form of corporate associations as a concern is widely known. It is a form of integration of industrial firms, organization of transport, construction, trade, banking. Often, the concern includes organizations united by the production cycle, so concerns have become widespread in industries related to the extraction and processing of minerals. In our country, in the course of the restructuring of the national economy, concerns began to be created that united enterprises and organizations specializing in the production and transportation of gas, oil production and oil refining, the production of fertilizers and the provision of services for their use, the extraction of gold, diamonds, and non-ferrous metal ores ( smelting of the latter), etc. There is a type of concern (with diversified activities), which brings together firms engaged in various types of business that are not closely related to the main production.

One of the most widespread types of joint-stock company is a holding company created to hold controlling stakes in other companies. In world practice, two types of holdings are known: pure, which is an exclusively financial company, and mixed, which has the right to engage in entrepreneurial activities. In the process of privatization and corporatization of a number of large Russian enterprises (former state production associations, combines) holdings were formed with such advantages as the possibility of implementing a unified technical production and marketing company, establishing price controls, protecting group interests combined production units. Typically, the above corporate organizations(actually corporations, concerns, holdings) are forms of integration of financial and industrial capital, that is, they form financial and industrial groups.

In the field of innovation, there are different kinds organizations, including research consortiums and venture capital firms. A consortium (research) is a temporary association of scientific, industrial, technical and other organizations that carry out joint activities for the implementation of major scientific projects and programs (after their completion, the consortium can be liquidated or transformed into a new one.) Venture firm (risk firm) - an organization created to carry out innovative activities associated with significant risk. It is estimated that venture (risk) capital invested in the implementation of projects is completely lost in 15% of cases, in 25% it causes losses, in 30% it gives a very modest profit. However, in the remaining 30% of cases achieved success and the profit received at the same time allows you to cover the invested funds by 30-200 times.

An important role in the development of scientific research and high-tech industries is also played by non-profit organizations such as scientific and technological parks, engineering centers, innovation centers, industrial technology etc., created on the basis of universities. A science park is a form of cooperation between industrial firms and universities, which makes it possible to effectively use the scientific potential and laboratory facilities of the latter to accelerate the process of industrial implementation of developed technologies.

Technological parks are one of the formal formation and functioning of risk firms. They are created at universities to support newly emerging high-tech venture capital enterprises.

The development of technology parks in Russia is primarily associated with solving the problems of their financing, determining their legal status, training qualified personnel, and supporting state and local governments.

In connection with the global economic changes taking place in the country, it becomes important development and support for organizations of various sizes (from super-large to small), because it is their diversity that creates favorable opportunities to ignore their benefits. According to expert estimates, in order to change the structure of the Russian economy, it is necessary to create 10-15 million small and medium-sized businesses, while in 1995 there were only about 2 million of them, including cooperatives and farms. In developed countries, small businesses account for 40 to 70% of GNP and employ 30-60% of all those employed in the private sector. In Russia, the share of small business in the total volume of production in 1994 was only 8%, and the share in the total number of employees in industry was 13%.

Typology of organizations engaged in entrepreneurial activities in accordance with Russian legislation.

IN civil code In the Russian Federation, all organizations that are participants in entrepreneurial activity are divided into two groups: commercial and non-commercial.

Commercial enterprises include: business partnerships and companies, production cooperatives, as well as state and municipal unitary enterprises.

Business partnerships are an organization whose property is formed at the expense of the contributions of participants. There are two types of partnership: full and limited. A full partnership is one whose participants are engaged in entrepreneurial activities and bear full responsibility for all property belonging to the partnership. A partnership (or limited partnership) is considered to be a partnership where, along with general partners, there are investors who do not take part in the implementation of activities, but only bear limited liability within the amount of their contributions (i.e. are passive investors).

Business companies are divided into:

· joint-stock;

limited liability companies;

societies with additional responsibility;

The last two are not entitled to issue shares. The authorized capital of these companies is formed from the sums of contributions of its participants. Business companies can be created by one or more participants.

Members of a limited liability company are liable for obligations only to the extent of the value of their contributions.

JSC is a company whose authorized capital is a share capital. JSC participants have limited liability to the extent of the value of their shares. There are two types of AO: closed and open. The first has the right to conduct an open subscription for the shares it issues and their free sale, in the second, the shares are distributed among a certain circle of persons, as a rule, who are the founders.

A production cooperative (artel) is created on the basis of a voluntary association of citizens for the joint implementation of production or other economic activity: production, processing, marketing of products, trade, consumer services and other services. The property owned by the cooperative is formed from the share contributions of its members. Members of a cooperative bear subsidiary liability for its obligations in accordance with the law and the charter of the cooperative. Number of members production cooperative must be at least five people.

A unitary enterprise is a state or municipal enterprise that is not endowed with the right of ownership of property assigned to it by the owner (property is indivisible and cannot be distributed among deposits).

A unitary enterprise based on the right of economic management is created by the state or local authority management and its property is state or municipal property. The state (municipal) body decides on the creation of the reorganization and liquidation of the enterprise, determines the goals of its activities and controls the safety and use of property, appoints the head of the enterprise, approves the charter, has the right to receive part of the profit, but is not responsible for the obligations of the enterprise. A unitary enterprise owns, uses and disposes of property, may create subsidiaries by transferring part of the property to them.

A unitary enterprise on the right of operational management (federal state enterprise) is created by decision of the government of the Russian Federation. May be reorganized or liquidated by government decision. The enterprise owns and uses property in accordance with the objectives of its activities, however, it disposes of it only with the consent of the owner, who approves the charter and appoints the head. The enterprise is liable for its obligations with all its property; however, if the latter is insufficient, the Russian Federation bears subsidiary liability.

Concerning non-profit organizations, then they include public and religious organizations and associations, associations and unions, consumer cooperatives, unions and societies, funds and institutions that can engage in entrepreneurial activities, but do not set profit as their main goal.

External factors are basically uncontrollable forces that affect managers' decisions and actions and, ultimately, internal structure and processes in the organization. Managers, asking themselves about these forces, ask next question: who and what from the outside will influence the success of our plan?

External factors are so numerous and interrelated that the manager often finds it difficult to choose those that are most important in the decision-making process. In fact, few managers pay serious attention to this issue. They prefer to study general trends that have already been predicted, which may affect profits.

Looking at this problem from a perspective, it is useful to think of all external influences on the firm as a combination of three main areas. As shown in Figure 1.7.1, these areas are: remote, industrial and operational impacts. These spheres and the influences that come from them, as well as their influence on managerial decision-making, are the central theme of this lecture.

Accounting for external factors in business activities. RES design taking into account external influencing factors (WWF) Taking into account external factors that

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