Types of business risk. Organization of entrepreneurial activity Types and causes of entrepreneurial risks

The concept of "entrepreneurial risk" consists of three interrelated events: a risky event, the consequences of this event and the attitude towards risk. A novice businessman, organizing commercial activities, takes risks. The environment is unstable in relation to entrepreneurship due to various reasons that can bring loss or decrease in profit. We will understand what entrepreneurial risks are, their concept and types, as well as how to avoid unpleasant situations.

Does an entrepreneur have the right to make mistakes?

The occurrence of a loss is directly related to the financial situation of a businessman. Entrepreneurial risk- this is the probability of the occurrence of an event that may entail unpleasant consequences and losses for the businessman. That is, deprivation of property, a change in the expected level of income, or the impossibility of selling finished products. Business risks can arise in any field of activity and at any stage: the organization of commercial activities, the production and sale of finished products, the implementation of monetary and financial transactions.

What can influence the occurrence of risk? Most often, the causes are conditions that cause uncertainty in the outcome of the event. Such factors include the process of economic activity itself, the insufficient amount of information that served as the basis for an unprofitable choice of a businessman in any matter, or the state of the environment, which may adversely affect the results of operations.

The causes of entrepreneurial risks are divided into internal and external. If a businessman can influence the emergence of internal factors, then the emergence of external conditions does not depend on him, he can only predict them in the course of his activities in order to avoid unpleasant consequences.

Under internal causes understand all the factors that occur within the company. In short, it can be management inefficiency, mistakes in marketing policy, abuse of position by employees, professional training frames.

The sources of external causes are:

unforeseen changes in legislation that relate to entrepreneurial activity;
unstable political situation not only in the country, but also in the world;
tough competition and falling demand for products;
weather;
unpredictable behavior of counterparties.

Entrepreneurial risk may arise if a businessman has made an incorrect management decision, made miscalculations at any stage of commercial activity, or a situation has arisen that is beyond his control. Therefore, in business it is necessary to be ready for any changes.

What are the types of risks?

What risks in entrepreneurial activity can a businessman incur? The emergence of an unpleasant situation can bring down the established process of entrepreneurship at any stage. The classification of entrepreneurial risks differs depending on the conditions of occurrence.

Types of entrepreneurial risks differ depending on the types of activity, they can be industrial, financial, commercial and insurance.

Production entrepreneurial risks arise directly in the course of commercial activities and are associated with the sale of products or the behavior of counterparties. Most often, these risks include:

stop production due to the inability to conclude an agreement with suppliers for the supply of materials;
lack of delivery or delivery not within the specified time of materials for the production of products;
non-receipt by a businessman Money for products sold;
the probability of returning sold products from the buyer;
refusal of financial institutions for credit in order to expand production or ensure a continuous production process;
errors in pricing policy;
the risk of declaring bankrupt counterparties or the entrepreneur himself.

Financial risk in entrepreneurship is the probability of losses that are associated with the financial condition of the entrepreneur. These may be changes in loan terms, fluctuations in exchange rates and the value of securities, rising inflation, rising taxes and the cost of materials necessary to ensure a continuous business process.

Commercial entrepreneurial risks are risks that may occur in the process of selling finished products. The occurrence of this type of loss is associated with a decrease production capacity, an increase in purchase prices for goods or services, an increase in distribution costs.

Insurance risks in entrepreneurial activity take place in the event of an insured event, when the insurer pays monetary compensation. The emergence of insurance risk is possible if the entrepreneur has incorrectly organized his activities or set inadequate tariffs.

The main types of entrepreneurial risks are: monetary risk, entrepreneurial risk and creditor risk.

How not to become a victim?

Is there risk in entrepreneurship? Any person, opening his own business, must take into account all external and internal factors that may affect the occurrence of losses. Recently, the economic situation in the country has been unstable, so a novice businessman should foresee all possible events so as not to incur losses and not become bankrupt.

To avoid risks, business activities should be carried out under the strict supervision of the manager, periodically an analysis should be carried out showing risk assessments.

One of the most important elements management is the development of measures to protect against risks or reduce them.

It is almost impossible to avoid risk in entrepreneurship, but the entrepreneur must make attempts to achieve this goal. The measures that will help to do this include the complete rejection of operations that carry high risks, and from attracting borrowed funds into business activities or a partial decrease in the share of borrowed capital.

You can go the other way and try to reduce entrepreneurial risk in the following ways:

The normative method operates on the principle of setting limits on the number of business transactions: setting restrictions on the output of products, their sale, limiting the amount of borrowed capital.
Creation of reserve funds, which are activated if necessary: funds of stocks of materials and raw materials, finished products, cash on the current account of the entrepreneur.
Risk insurance, the object of which is, among other things, the property of a businessman in the event of an insured event.
Hedging is the conclusion of contracts with suppliers for the supply of raw materials, materials and currency values at fixed prices for a future period.
Diversification implies the expansion of production, when an entrepreneur develops new areas of activity that are not related to each other.

Any commercial activity is inevitably associated with risks, the entrepreneur cannot predict unforeseen expenses and losses. Therefore, when organizing activities, a businessman must carefully study all aspects of work so as not to incur losses or go bankrupt.

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Bibliography

Zapolskikh Yu.A., Bakirova A.F. Bankruptcy risk management in modern conditions management In the collection: World science and modern society: topical issues of economics, sociology and law. Materials of the International scientific-practical conference. 2013. S. 84-87.
Zaripova, G.M. Financial and credit support of entrepreneurship [Text] / G.M.
Zapolskikh Yu.A. Credit risk and the main ways to minimize it. Economy and society. 2014. No. 2-2 (11). pp. 126-128.

Federal State Educational Budgetary Institution of Higher vocational education

"FINANCIAL UNIVERSITY

UNDER THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION"

(Financial University)

Department of "Microeconomics"

COURSE WORK

on the topic:

"ENTREPRENEURIAL RISK: ITS ESSENCE, TYPES AND FEATURES IN RUSSIA"

Completed:

Zaretsky Yuri KEF 1-2

Moscow 2013

Plan

Introduction

1.4 Risk assessment models

3.2 Ways to reduce the degree of entrepreneurial risks

Conclusion

Bibliography

Applications

Introduction

Risk to one degree or another constantly accompanies any human activity. He is a constant companion economic activity person, sometimes having a decisive impact on its final result.

Even in the most plausible economic situation, for each enterprise there is always the possibility of the onset of crisis economic phenomena. This probability is associated with risk. Risk is inherent in any sphere of human economic activity, which is due to the abundance of causes and conditions that affect a certain positive outcome as a result of specific decisions made by people.

The greatest degree of risk is achieved through the disorganization of the economy for a number of reasons. So, for example, it is enough to recall the 2008 World Financial Crisis (the "great recession"), which manifested itself in September-October 2008 in the form of a very sharp deterioration in the main economic indicators in many developed countries, and which resulted in a global recession. The precondition for the financial crisis of 2008 was the mortgage crisis in the US, the first signs of which appeared in 2006 in the form of a rapid drop in the number of home sales, which in early 2007 escalated into a crisis of high-risk mortgage loans. In the near future, reliable borrowers also felt problems with lending. In the summer of 2007, the mortgage crisis gradually began to transform into a financial crisis. Bankruptcies of large banks began, the rescue of banks began on the part of national governments. Quotations in the stock markets fell sharply during 2008 and early 2009. For companies, the share of the probability of receiving capital during the placement of securities has significantly decreased. In 2008, the crisis acquired a global character and gradually began to manifest itself in a widespread decline in production volumes, a decrease in demand and prices for raw materials, and an increase in unemployment.

Thus, we can say that in the context of the global financial crisis, a rapid increase in the activity and scale of natural disasters economic market, the involvement of an increasing number of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs becomes impossible, as the crisis literally multiplies the degree of risk, which disorganizes the economy. Addressing issues related to "uncertainty" and risk in entrepreneurial activity play an extremely important role. Therefore, the relevance of the topic we have chosen is indeed extremely high and, of course, we must thoroughly study all aspects of entrepreneurial risk.

Recall that entrepreneurial activity is an activity aimed at generating income. Of course, along with entrepreneurial activity, there is, as we have already said, an entrepreneurial risk that forces the owner of the company to make one or another decision related to solving this difficult task, namely, reducing the level of risk.

Traditionally, entrepreneurial risk is understood as the risk that appears in all types of entrepreneurial activity associated with the production of products, goods and services, and directly with their implementation; financial and commodity-money transactions; commerce, as well as with the implementation of scientific and technical projects.

Commercial risk has an objective base, due to the uncertainty of the external environment in relation to entrepreneurial activity (activity). The external environment, therefore, includes the objective economic, social and political conditions in which the entrepreneur operates and to the changes to which he must adapt.

entrepreneurial risk assessment russia

It is also important to note the fact that the experience of development of all countries indicates that the neglect or underestimation of economic risk in the development of strategies and tactics of economic policy, the adoption of specific decisions inevitably hinders the development of society, scientific and technological progress, dooms the entire economic system to stagnation...

The purpose of the course work is to substantiate the essence of entrepreneurial risk, its types and features.

Thus, we define the goals of our work:

Consider entrepreneurial risk as an economic category.

Consider the functions and types of entrepreneurial risks, and the reasons that affect the degree of commercial risk.

Let us study the characteristic features of entrepreneurial risks in developed countries.

Let's define the main business risks in the Russian Federation and methods to reduce them.

The object of the research is the concept and practice of analysis and management of entrepreneurial risks in a market economy. Having examined the content, types and methods of assessing commercial risks, as well as considering the reasons for managing them and ensuring their economic security in Russian economic reality, we will be able to give an accurate assessment of business risk in Russia.

As a subject of research, we designate entrepreneurial risk in the United States, France and directly in Russia itself.

Chapter 1. Theoretical Foundations of Entrepreneurial Risk

1.1 Entrepreneurial risk as an economic category

In the classical theory of entrepreneurial risk (J. Mill, N.W. Senior), it is identified with the mathematical expectation of losses that have every chance of happening as a result of the chosen decision. The risk here is defined as the damage that is caused by the implementation of the decision. This interpretation of the essence of risk was not accepted by all economists, which led to the development of a different understanding of the content of risk. In the 30s. In the 20th century, economists A. Marshall and A. Pigou designed the bases of the neoclassical theory of commercial risk, which are displayed in the following:

the merchant works in conditions of almost complete uncertainty;

entrepreneurial profit is a random variable.

Entrepreneurs are guided in their activities the following criteria:

expected profit,

the magnitude of its probable fluctuations.

According to neoclassical theory with a similar size possible profit the entrepreneur chooses the option associated with the lowest level of risk. Thus, representatives of the neoclassical theory of entrepreneurial risk substantiated the position of "opponents of risk".

J.M. Keynes, on the contrary, turned his attention to the propensity of businessmen to take great risks in order to achieve greater profits expected in the future. In addition, he substantiates the need to introduce "risk costs" to cover the alleged deviation of the actual revenue from the possible (expected), and also identifies 3 main types of risk that it is advisable to take into account economic life.

) risks, a certain proportion of the probability of which is calculable, and which can be insured (such risks become an item of production costs deducted from profit);

) risks, a certain degree of probability of which is incalculable, which explain the existence of a specific income of entrepreneurs.

In our domestic economics Unfortunately, the problem of risk has received much less attention. In the 20s. of the last century, a number of legislative normative acts were adopted, taking into account the presence of industrial and economic risk in Russia. But with the approval of the administrative-command system, real entrepreneurship was completely destroyed, and already in the mid-30s. the category "risk" was given a label - bourgeois, capitalist. This is explained by the fact that under the conditions of the command-administrative system of the economy, the economic situation was determined "from above" by order in the form of a set of norms and certain rules developed by economists on the basis of the postulates of the Marxist-Leninist theory, for which risk could not be the subject of economic analysis.

It should be said that the problems of risk in the socialist economy of the then Russia were developed by domestic authors S.N. Koshelenko A.P. Algin, D.V. Tulin, I.M. Syroezhin, D.N. Nazarov. At the same time, in most works, the emphasis was placed on the fact that the category of risk is groundlessly ignored in the broad economic literature, or has an extremely little meaningful interpretation. Most of the time was devoted to general methodological problems, as well as practical solutions related to the conclusion of credit, foreign trade and other transactions, the introduction of new technologies. Some experts focused on the differences in the assessment of economic risk in the countries of the capitalist and socialist camps, associated with different motivations for the activities of economic entities - the implementation of the plan and the receipt / max of economic profit. In a planned economy, one had to deal with the risk of an unfulfilled state budget. plan, violations of obligations on a contractual basis, short deliveries of products, and the like, most often due to non-compliance with the norms and rules of economic activity. And in a market economy, the primary elements of risk are the uncertainty of market conditions, demand, prices and behavior of the buyer (consumer), which determine the final results of the activities of economic entities.

The implementation of a number of economic reforms in the Russian Federation aroused interest in the problems associated with the consideration of risk in economic activity. The very concept of risk in the process of formation of market relations not only received its further development, but actually became also in demand. It is worth noting that the skills and knowledge of entrepreneurial activity in relation to the forms of economic risk characteristic of a directive-controlled economy should also be taken into account when determining domestic modern theoretical positions of commercial risk.

Today there is no common understanding of the essence of "risk". This can be explained by the fact that there is a multidimensionality of this phenomenon. It also takes place to be almost completely ignored by our economic legislation in terms of economic practice and management activities. In addition, risk is an extremely complex phenomenon that has many heterogeneous, and sometimes opposite, existing foundations. This is explained by the possibility of existence of several definitions of the concepts of the word "risk" from different points of view.

Consider a number of definitions of "risk", which are given to us by domestic and foreign authors in our time:

Risk is a potential, quantifiable possibility of loss. The concept of risk characterizes the uncertainty associated with the likelihood of adverse situations during the implementation of the project and, as a fact, the consequences.

Risk - the likelihood of losses, losses, shortfalls in planned income, profit.

Risk is the uncertainty of our future financial results.

Risk is a cost expression of a probabilistic event leading to losses.

Risk - the probability of loss of values as a result of entrepreneurial activity, if the situation and conditions for conducting activities change in a direction different from that provided for by plans and calculations.

It should be noted that the concept of "risk" has a rather long history, however, various aspects of risk began to be studied more intensively in the late 19th - early 20th centuries.

Thus, we considered commercial risk from the standpoint of a number of economic schools. Now we should generalize the knowledge gained about entrepreneurial risk as an economic category, link the concepts together, based on modern ideas about it.

Of course, all companies try to minimize their risk and, in turn, maximize their profits. But at the same time, the lower the degree of risk, the less the opportunity to get high entrepreneurial profit. The relationship between these factors is directly proportional. In principle, it is impossible to get away from risk, since, by definition, its zero level does not exist. Therefore, the task of the manager of a company (firm, organization), according to the concept of risks, is not to reduce the risk in its pure form, but to find a reasonable ratio between the level of risk of the decision made and the profitability of its result.

The crisis of the economy in all countries is becoming one of the factors of increasing entrepreneurial risk, which leads to an increase in the number of non-marginal enterprises. The significant growth of non-profit companies allows us to conclude that it is impossible to do without taking into account the risk factor in production and economic activities, because it is difficult to obtain results of an entrepreneur's commercial activity that are adequate to the real conditions. Therefore, it is not possible to form an effective mechanism for the functioning of the company in cooperation with other economic entities of the economy on the basis of the concept without risky management.

Our earlier analysis of the numerous meanings of "risk" allows us to determine the primary points that are natural for a risky situation. Among them we should include:

The spontaneous nature of the event, which affects which of the possible outcomes is realized in practice;

Availability of other solutions;

Probability of expected end results.

1.2 Functions and types of business risks

The essence of entrepreneurial risk is closely related to the definition of the functions performed by the risk. It is customary to distinguish such functions as regulation, stimulation, protection and choice. Consider the content of these functions.

The stimulating function of risk is aimed at finding non-standard solutions to problems that arise before the manager. Most enterprises and firms achieve success, increase their competitiveness on the basis of risky activities. It should be noted that this type of management leads to more efficient production, from which both consumers and society as a whole benefit.

The regulatory function of risk orients the manager towards obtaining, first of all, significant results by overcoming inertia, conservatism, psychological barriers that impede the adoption and implementation of promising decisions. This function captures the ability to take risks, as one of possible ways successful business activity.

The protective function of risk shows itself in the fact that if risk is a normal state for a company, then a tolerant attitude towards failures should also be natural. Entrepreneurial and enterprising entrepreneurs need social protection in the form of political, legal and economic guarantees.

The function of choosing an entrepreneurial risk is related to the fact that the presence of a risk necessitates the choice of one of the options solutions. In this regard, the manager in the decision-making process analyzes various options, choosing the most cost-effective and least risky. Depending on the specific content of the choice situation, it has a different degree of complexity and is resolved in different ways.

The effectiveness of measuring and regulating the degree of risk is largely determined by the knowledge and understanding of its classification.

The classification of risks should be understood as the distribution of risk into certain groups for specific ones. signs to achieve the goals (Fig. 1). Risk classification allows. determine the place of each risk in their overall system. It creates opportunities for the effective use of appropriate methods and methods of risk management in business activities. Each risk has its own system of ways and methods of business risk management.

Difficulty of classification. entrepreneurial risks lies in their diversity. There are a number of main types of risk that all firms, organizations, etc., without exception, are exposed to. But along with the general ones, there are also characteristic ones. types of risks specific to certain types of entrepreneurial activity (activities): banking risks differ from risks in insurance activities, and the latter, in turn, from risks in industrial business.

In addition, economic and political development modern production. generates new types of risk, which are not so simple. identify and quantify them. The movement of the national economy of various countries is accompanied by the creation of complex financial. and industrial relationships. There is a "domino effect", which in the event of the collapse of one firm entails a series of bankruptcies of others associated with this commercial organization - bankrupt. Increasing computerization and automation of the activities of enterprises leads to the possibility of losses as a result of a computer system failure.

Risks are usually divided according to a number of criteria. Consider the criteria for risk grouping.

Yes, depending. From the probable result (or risk event), risks can be divided into 2 large groups: pure and speculative.

Rice. 1 - Risk classification

Net risks can be defined as the probability of obtaining a non-positive (negative or zero) result. We will include among them: political, transport, natural, part of commercial risks (production, property, trade), environmental and others.

Natural risks are undoubtedly associated with the manifestation of forces of a natural nature (earthquakes, floods, storms, fires, epidemics).

Environmental risks - risks associated with the processes of environmental pollution.

Political risks are determined by the political stability in the country and the direct activity of the state. It is typical for them to manifest themselves when the conditions of the production and trade process are violated for reasons beyond the control of the economic entity.

Transport risks - risks associated with the transportation of goods (sea, road, river, air, rail,).

Entrepreneurial risks represent a threat of losses in the process of financial and economic activity and represent the uncertainty of the results of this entrepreneurial activity. On a structural basis, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into production, property, financial and trade risks.

According to the sphere of manifestation, entrepreneurial risks should be divided into internal and external risks. So the source of external risks is the external environment of the enterprise. A merchant cannot influence these risks, he is only able to a certain extent to foresee and take them into account in his entrepreneurial activity. So we can refer to external risks the risk from unforeseen changes in the legislation regulating commercial activity in the country; instability of the political regime in the country; as a result of strikes, nationalization, embargoes, etc. The source of internal risks is the organization itself. These risks manifest themselves in the case of illiterate management, erroneous marketing policy, which is reflected in the adoption of irrelevant business decisions, as well as as a result of internal abuse. Chief among the risks internal content are personnel risks associated with the professional level and characteristics of employees commercial firm; then technological, technical, production risks, etc.

The types of entrepreneurial activity distinguish the following risks: financial, insurance, production, legal, commercial, investment and innovation.

In our time, in the conditions of doing business, two types of commercial risk are distinguished according to the level of entrepreneurial decision-making: risk at the level of individual enterprises or local (microeconomic) and global (macroeconomic) risk. Until the mid-1980s, in Russia, the main share of the risk fell on the global level - the level of the state itself. With the advent of organizations of various forms of ownership, the situation has changed dramatically, now it is firms that bear the dominant part of the risk. Independently identifying their innovative and investment activities, independently concluding contracts with suppliers and consumers, they fully assume the commercial risk associated with their decisions.

We can also divide all business risks into two large groups according to the possibility of their insurance: those that cannot be insured and those that are insured. A merchant can, in particular, shift the risk to other economic entities, partially protect himself by incurring certain expenses in the form of insurance premiums. For example, an entrepreneur can insure the risk of loss (or destruction) of property, the risk of accidents, fire, etc.

Insured risk - a possible event or set of events, at the time of which insurance is carried out. The insurance risks, as we have already said, include possible losses as a result of natural disasters, car accidents, damage to products in a warehouse or during transportation, non-fulfillment of obligations by subcontractors or suppliers, employee errors, accidents with employees, etc.

If the resulting damage as a result of the insured risk is covered by payments from insurance companies, then, consequently, the losses resulting from the risk are compensated from the personal funds of the enterprise.

The main internal sources of risk coverage are the organization's own capital, as well as reserve funds intended for this purpose. In addition to internal, there are also external sources to cover probable losses, for example, the main bank is responsible for subsidiary banks.

According to the causes of losses, scientists distinguish between dynamic and static risks. Static risks are the possible damage resulting from negative actions on the assets of the organization of natural disasters (fire, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, etc.); the adoption of unfavorable legislation (loss of seizure of property or the inability to recover compensation from the culprit due to imperfect legislation); criminal actions; incapacity of key employees (the top staff of the company), which is associated with the difficulty of recruiting professional personnel, as well as losses that were caused by the transfer of ownership. The peculiarity of static risks is nothing more than the fact that they always carry losses for business.

Unlike static risk, dynamic risk implies either profit for firms or losses. Therefore, we can call them "speculative". Dynamic risks, due to their characteristics, are very difficult for a firm to manage.

The above classification of commercial risks is somewhat conditional, since it is very difficult to draw a clear line between certain types of risks. In addition, many risks are closely interrelated. Changes in the level of one of them immediately cause changes in the magnitude of the other risk. But all risks affect the outcome of the production and economic activities of the company and therefore they must be taken into account in order to maintain the normal efficiency of the enterprise.

1.3 Factors affecting the level of entrepreneurial risk

Each enterprise (manufacturing, transport and others) is a complex production and economic system, which is influenced by many different factors. Their impact, different in volume and time (together or separately, or in various combinations) causes uncertainty, which, in turn, is a source of risk. Factors can be, as laid down in the organization of activities or the strategy of the enterprise, how to act as a result of the actions of its leader.

Factors that cause entrepreneurial risks can be divided into 2 groups:

subjective and objective;

external and internal.

The group "Objective factors" includes such circumstances of primary importance as "Quality of active resources" and "Quality of the situation". At the same time, the category "Quality of active resources" should include everything that an entrepreneur needs to ensure his planned business, in particular, the quality of attracted own and borrowed financial, economic and material resources. Everything else that the entrepreneur is unable to manage, that is beyond his control, but that significantly affects the financial and economic results of entrepreneurial activity, belongs to the category "Quality of the situation". The quality of the situation is determined by the circumstances dictated by the economic, political and social situation in the country or those countries where the entrepreneur does business, as well as the quality of the staff working with him, the conscientiousness of partners, etc.

The second group, tentatively named "Subjective factors", are the characteristics of the entrepreneur's personality.

The conditions for doing business in Russia are significantly different from those in countries with an already established market economy. Therefore, along with the considered factors affecting the level of commercial risk in these countries, there are a number of factors specific to our country in the domestic economy.

An analysis of the current state of the Russian economy allows us to identify the following factors that cause the emergence of entrepreneurial risk:

irresponsibility and optionality of economic entities in the country;

vagueness and continuous change in normative and legislative acts regulating the activities of enterprises, firms and organizations;

unstable inflation rates;

political instability;

the absence of a real economic right, which prevents the reduction of the overall level of risk through contractual relations;

the lack of personal responsibility of a significant part of company managers for the results of their activities, which increases the level of risk of any of their decisions;

intervention of politicians in the economy;

increase in the number of employees of the administrative apparatus;

unstable tax law;

low level of basic education of entrepreneurs.

We can divide all influencing factors in relation to an economic entity into two groups - external and internal. Let's consider each group of factors.

Under external factors one should understand those conditions that an entrepreneur or manager, as a rule, cannot change, but must take into account, since they affect the final results.

The group of internal factors affecting the level of risk includes a large number of diverse and diverse factors, usually divided into subgroups: enterprise strategy, principles and methods of managing it, resources and the level of their use, marketing activities methods used by the organization to protect business secrets, product quality (works, services), etc. Each of these subgroups includes its own specific factors that contribute to the emergence of risks.

1.4 Risk assessment models

In the very general view The entrepreneurial risk assessment model can be expressed by the following mathematical model, which is the ratio:

where R is an assessment of the consequences of a risk event;

P is the probability of a risk event occurring;

I- potential consequences risk factor.

Work on the analysis of entrepreneurial risk and the construction of an adequate model for its assessment is very time consuming.

This is explained, on the one hand, by the instability of the causes of risk factors, and, on the other hand, by the complexity of formalizing the results of activities. Therefore, when substantiating and developing mathematical models for assessing entrepreneurial risk, a thorough analysis of the nature of the initial information about the causes and factors of entrepreneurial risk, as well as the purpose of the study, is required.

Depending on the nature of the proposed information, which is available at the moment of setting the problem, and the chosen method for describing uncertainty, the following types of mathematical models for assessing the consequences of risk are most common: deterministic; stochastic; linguistic and gaming.

Rice. 2 - Mathematical models of risk assessment

A deterministic model is understood as a model in which the nature of the causes and risk factors is known and for each action it is determined that it will certainly lead us to some specific outcome. In such cases, we say that classical mathematical methods of analysis and mathematical logic, programming, etc. serve for the mathematical description of financial risk.

Stochastic models imply the randomness of causes and risk factors, therefore, we say that the risk is described by a probability distribution on a given set. A prerequisite for the reasonable use of these models is the availability of statistically significant information about past implementations of the unknown variable.

In linguistic models, uncertainty is described by a verbally defined membership function. To build the membership function, expert judgments are used about the level of predisposition of one or another possible event to be realized.

In the case of building a game (non-stochastic) model, only a set of independent values of the consequences of a risk event is specified, which can be realized. Statistical and mathematical games, utility theory, etc. are used as a description.

Thus, in the transition from deterministic models through stochastic to linguistic and game ones, the information content of the person making the decision about risk factors decreases, and, as a result, sharp drop the level of accuracy of risk assessment, which negatively affects the result of income forecasting.

Often there are situations when the uncertainty cannot be described by us, and it is not possible to calculate the risk. In this case, risky decisions should be made on the basis of heuristics - a set of methodological rules for theoretical research, logical techniques and the search for truth. Risk management has its own system of related rules and techniques for making decisions under conditions of partial or even complete uncertainty.

A risk indicator can serve as a quantitative expression of the outcome of a risky situation. We must say that there are different types of risk assessment indicators, which is due to the information situation in which a particular decision is made. The set of risk assessment indicators is shown in Fig.3.

Consider a group of risk assessment indicators formed on the basis of the level of uncertainty regarding the probability of a risk event.

Rice. 3 - Classification of risk assessment indicators

Under conditions of certainty, the group of risk assessment indicators includes financial indicators, which reflect the availability, placement and use of financial resources and, thus, make it possible to assess the risk of consequences of the results of the activities of organizations.

We use the company's financial statements as initial information in risk assessment. Database of models - the position that the risk can be measured by the deviation of the real result of the calculations from the ideal, that is, the risk-free option. The peculiarity of this is that the object of our assessment are risks that are characterized by the result of activity, that is, we are talking about complex risks that have formed under the influence of other financial risks. As criteria parameters for comparing indicators, as a rule, calculated values or generally accepted values based on data from past periods of this company can be used.

Due to the peculiarities of the initial information and the structure of indicators, risk assessment can exist and be carried out on the basis of deterministic models.

The disadvantages of these models include: insufficient flexibility of criterial parameters; use of old information; insufficient dynamism; insufficient information content of financial statements;

Under conditions of some uncertainty, risk should be considered as a probabilistic category. Probabilistic indicators of risk assessment are calculated based on the classical principles of statistical probability using stochastic models. The form of expression is interval and point risk estimates. Initial information about a risk situation exists in the form of the frequency of occurrence of risk events.

We also provided comparative characteristics of risk assessment indicators (see Appendix 1).

Methods of expert risk assessment - a set of mathematical and logical procedures that are aimed at obtaining information from expert experts, its analysis and generalization in order to select the desired (rational) solution.

These methods involve the implementation of a number of procedures or steps:

formation of goals and objectives expert evaluation;

choice of method for collecting and processing expert information;

selection and formation of an expert group;

questioning or questioning of experts;

processing and analysis of the obtained results.

Methods of expert assessments we can classify as follows:

Methods joint work group of experts implies the formation of a common opinion in the course of a collective discussion of a risky situation. Sometimes these methods can be defined as methods of obtaining a collective opinion directly. These include brainstorming, business games, meetings and scenarios.

The methods of obtaining individual opinions of the members of the expert group are based on the premature collection of information from experts interviewed independently of each other, followed by the processing of the collected information. These methods include methods of interview, questionnaire survey.

In reality expert review is not used as a basis for decision-making, but only complements the quantitative risk assessment. This is due to many factors, including the subjectivity of these estimates. That is, the mathematical component of these methods is the processing and evaluation of the collected information/results.

Thus, we can conclude that mathematical methods are based on statistical information, and they give us an objective quantitative risk assessment. At the same time, the only drawback of these methods/methods is the use of past information to predict the future situation.

Modeling of the financial situation is based on mathematical models. One of the areas of modeling in the field of finance is modeling risk situations in order to further assess the financial risk when the firm makes management decisions. Consider the main models of financial risk management on the example of the stock market.

Despite the fact that the models of P. Samuelson and L. Bachelier assess price changes in the stock markets, they are not all risk management models, but rather form the basis for their development.

G. Markowitz's paradigm is based on a number of abstractions that simplify reality:

) when making an investment decision, the investor should be guided primarily by only two criteria - the level of risk and return on investment;

) the investor behaves rationally: out of 2 investment objects with the same profitability, he will give preference to the one with a lower risk level;

) investors seek to maximize profitability;

) feature for investors, there will be homogeneity of expectations, that is, their assumptions about the risk indicator and future return are the same.

The main merit of G. Markowitz is his proposed probabilistic formalization of the terms "profitability" and "risk". In G. Markowitz's model, the probability distribution is used directly to calculate the ratio between the risk of investments and their expected return. The return of the securities portfolio assumed by him is found as the average value of the probability distribution, and the risk is found as the standard deviation of the probable values of the return from the expected one.

The results of the study by G. Markowitz allowed us to translate the problem of choosing the optimal investment strategy into precise mathematical language.

The model is based on the same assumptions as the G. Markowitz model, as well as the following:

for all investors, the investment period is the same;

information is freely and immediately available to every investor;

investors have homogeneous expectations, that is, they equally evaluate future returns, risk and covariances of returns of securities;

the risk-free interest rate is the same for every investor.

W. Sharp, developing the approach of G. Markowitz, divided the risk into 2 parts: 1st - market risk (systematic) for stock assets, 2nd - non-systematic.U. Sharp, having previously determined the special coefficients of reaction of prices of bonds or shares to changes in the market situation, revealed a formula for calculating the comparative measure of the risk of securities based on the "line of efficiency of the debt capital market".

Based on the same model, W. Sharp proposed a simpler method for finding the optimal portfolio, in which the problem was reduced from quadratic to linear optimization.

The conclusions drawn by W. Sharp have become widely known as models for valuing long-term assets, which are based on a proposal, the essence of which is that on competitive market the expected risk premium changes in direct proportion to the coefficient.

Chapter 2. Features of entrepreneurial risks in developed countries

2.1 Features of entrepreneurial risks and their assessment in the US economy

The high-risk nature of many American businesses was introduced into the US economy by the fact that there were quite a few adventurous people among the immigrants. They forced the more conservative and less risk-averse colonists to take risks in their commercial activities.

According to American concepts, risk is the chance of incurring loss or damage as a result of engaging in any activity. Of course, some types of risk can be transferred to insurance organizations by concluding appropriate insurance contracts. However, most of the risks (changes in prices and demand, managerial errors, a project chosen incorrectly by the firm, etc.) are entirely borne by the merchants. The experience of many market economies tells us that doing business is impossible without risk. Those who do not take risks will eventually fail!

In the US, risk applies to individuals, that is, each organizer of the enterprise takes a risk, but thanks to this risk, society as a whole remains to gain. Undoubtedly, the presence of diverse and numerous types of risk almost everywhere in the US business system brings great benefits to society and the national economy. economy. A businessman, based on assumptions about the degree of risk, tries to be careful when making responsible incremental decisions. The more thorough the preliminary study was carried out before the start of important and large projects, the less likely it is to incur losses, therefore, the less risk.

The presence of a risk factor for American entrepreneurs is a strong incentive to save money and resources. All this, in turn, forces organizations to over-carefully analyze the profitability of projects, over-responsibly create investment plans (budgets), purchase resources, hire personnel, etc. One of the main reasons for wastefulness, an uneconomical attitude to resources and means, as I believe American economists, is the lack of consideration of the risk factor when making and developing incremental decisions, which is inextricably linked with alienation from property. Most likely, legislative changes in the field of property in our country should determine the risk factor, which should take its rightful place in our business life, and then the American experience in this area will be useful to us to a large extent.

As an illustrative example - with what ambiguous and sometimes complex decisions, what great risks entrepreneurship faces, but what benefits a commercial organization gives to society, if its decision turned out to be really rightly chosen, we will give an example with the development of nylon by the well-known DuPont company.

After ten years of persistent and often frustrating research work, which cost $ 36 million, there were many doubts and reproaches from shareholders, scientists, and the press. But in the end, the company was successful, and along with this success, humanity received a material that has changed our lives today in many ways - nylon.

Typically, large commercial organizations allocate large sums for research, which are written off in advance as losses. However, experience tells us that these funds are not spent in vain. Risk is an inherent feature of entrepreneurial activity, but it is accepted only after thorough calculations.

There are issues of entrepreneurial risk associated with the choice of plan/project. In the US, there are many reference books and major studies on entrepreneurial risk. Each specialized magazine such as "Fortune" or "Business Week" has special columns that are devoted to the problems of accounting for risk in credit, investments, the acquisition of securities, and so on. There are publications for people who do not have a financial education, for example, the magazine "Money". Almost all major financial companies(for example, "Merrill Lynsh") issue free methodological recommendations on various issues of entrepreneurial risk.

Risk management is a top management priority for 78% of US midsize businesses. 3/4 of US companies recognize a strong correlation (statistical relationship) between risk management and firm value.

But one way or another, the management of 1/3 of American enterprises does not know whether their company is suffering significant losses or not! For example, only 8% of mid-sized European companies employ at least one professional risk manager. This is primarily due to the lack of personnel.

2.2 Features of entrepreneurial risks and their assessment in the French economy

In France, where entrepreneurial activity, and in it the prevention of entrepreneurial risk, historically occupy an important place in the economic system, and the support infrastructure was formed in the course of their development, changed following their needs, the role of the state is high, which traditionally plays a large role in the country's economy and its regulation.

As one of the largest economies in the European Union, France, in the course of its economic development, has developed many means and methods for creating legal, economic, financial and organizational conditions for the successful functioning of entrepreneurial activities in a highly competitive market environment. The infrastructure to support this sector of the economy has been built in France for decades and has many strengths.

The experience of France, a country where the infrastructure to support small businesses from entrepreneurial risk includes both state-owned companies providing financial support, and various private companies providing various kinds of services, including educational, consulting, etc. Moreover, comprehensive support is provided both in the domestic and foreign markets.

It should be emphasized that the study of the French experience in the formation of entrepreneurial activity and its support is practically not covered in the scientific literature.

It was noted above that entrepreneurial activities occupy an important place in the French economy, even if we consider only their number (more than 99% of the total, with micro-enterprises and individual entrepreneurs accounting for 93.55%). At the same time, we note that entrepreneurial activity in France has changed significantly over the past 20-30 years. Previously, small manufacturing enterprises represented a rather archaic market segment, since their owners could afford to purchase either outdated or cheap equipment. Since then, the situation has qualitatively changed. Modern small and medium enterprises, in the field of production, use high technologies.

However, the lack of activity in France abroad can be noted, although comparative studies conducted in France of exporting enterprises and enterprises that sell their goods only in the domestic market show that the former are larger and more productive and profitable.

Thus, the policy of supporting entrepreneurial activity is focused on solving the social or economic problems of France, namely: reducing unemployment by creating new enterprises, improving the competitiveness of the economy by increasing the size.

The French government and business community are aware of the importance of moving from state aid to small businesses to a policy of creating an enabling environment for entrepreneurship. And the support policy should ensure the sharing of risks (especially financial ones) not only during the creation of the enterprise, but also during its development, as well as limiting complex administrative procedures.

The main state body responsible for promoting the development of entrepreneurial activity is the Department of Trade, Craft and Service Enterprises (Direction des Entreprises commerciales, artisanales et de serviсes), which is part of the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry (Ministere de l Economy, des Finances et de l industry). But the activity of the French state in support of entrepreneurial business is complemented by the involvement of other partners and agencies, both state-owned and with a mixed structure, which makes it possible to reach a larger number of enterprises and find an intermediary for them that is most adapted to specific problems.

Since France is a member of the World trade organization, the French state cannot support entrepreneurial activities in the form of direct subsidies, and is forced to resort to indirect methods. For these purposes, two organizations were created: OSEO and Coface.

OSEO is a public organization formed in 2005 after the merger of the Bank for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises (BDPME - la Banque de Devel oppement des PME), National Research Support Agency (Anvar - l Agence nationale de valorisation de la recherche), Agency for Industrial Innovation (AII - l Agency de l innovation industrielle) and the French Society for Financing Guarantees for Small and Medium Enterprises (Sоfaris - la Soсiete française de guarantie des finances des PME). Its purpose is to finance and support entrepreneurial activities. OSEO has supported over 80,000 businesses.

To facilitate access to bank loans in business activities, OSEO is ready to share the risks of loans issued for the creation of an enterprise with banks, guaranteeing a certain amount (40 or 70%) of the repayment of financing or lending to enterprises jointly with banks. OSEO's activities in the area of financing and guarantees cover three types of needs of small businesses and their partners: long-term lending and co-financing with banks, short-term financing, various types of guarantees.

On the one hand, it is difficult to overestimate the activities of OSEO, since, for example, without the guarantee of this institution, almost no bank in France will provide a loan for the creation of a new enterprise. On the other hand, in forums and articles, one can find dozens of opinions of entrepreneurs who believe that they were "cheated" by the banks that issued loans for the creation of their enterprises, OSEO, which did not inform them enough, and the system as a whole, which contains deliberate ambiguity. Of course, we are not talking about deception, but rather that the products that OSEO provides are not simple and unambiguous, and those entrepreneurs who, during the phase economic growth they did not understand, for example, the conditions for submitting OSEO guarantees or were misled by bank employees, suffered during the crisis when their enterprises went bankrupt.

OSEO provides support not only in the domestic market, but also to enterprises wishing to enter world markets, however, the main company that guarantees export risks in France is Coface (Compagnie française d assurance pour le commerce exterieur - French company for guarantees for international trade), established in 1946. Coface deals mainly with credit insurance, which warns and covers non-payments of any exporting enterprises (not only small and medium ones). It can be noted that, on the one hand, the tools offered by French governmental and non-governmental organizations to support the activities of SMEs abroad are extremely diverse, but on the other hand, they are quite difficult to apply, especially for small enterprises, where there is often a shortage of staff familiar with the intricacies their use.

In connection with the lagging behind France from the countries-innovation leaders and the need to mitigate the consequences of the global crisis, it became necessary to significantly modernize the national innovation strategy. Most of the support measures used by the French government are aimed at indirect support for R&D in enterprises. For example, the use of tax incentives such as the research tax credit and the Young Innovative Enterprise status has become one of the most important instruments of French innovation policy in recent years.

Thus, we can conclude that in modern France there is a strong political will to increase the amount of resources allocated to R&D. Indeed, there is a particular emphasis on expanding private R&D by strengthening the innovative behavior of companies, especially SMEs. All support measures correspond to the main priorities and contribute to strengthening the trend of increasing spending on the creation of new innovative technologies and overcoming the backlog of France in the creation innovative products and technologies.

Risk management is ranked as a top management priority by 64% of French and Belgian medium-sized firms.

On average in Europe, 20% of firms are engaged in ad hoc risk management, i.e. only during the incident, of which in France this figure is about 33%.

Only 8% of European medium-sized firms employ at least one professional risk manager. This is primarily due to the lack of staff.

Chapter 3. Practical foundations of entrepreneurial risk on the example of Russia

3.1 Key business risks in Russia

The process of business risk management in Russia is rapidly developing, domestic companies adopt the experience of Western firms in formalizing and quantifying their approach to business risk management. Given the increasing complexity of this approach, it is not surprising that businesses in Russia manage more risks than in other emerging market economies.

Let's consider the spectrum of risks in entrepreneurship and answer the question of whether Russian enterprises are actively managing these risks (see Chart 1).

Russian companies have a higher degree of active management of most of the mentioned business risks than the average for companies in emerging market economies. The degree of management of other risks in business is generally on par with that observed in other emerging market economies, with the only real exceptions being price risks in business (77% in Russia vs. 81% on average for emerging market economies) and market risks. or competitive risks in business (73% in Russia against 79% on average in countries with developing market economies).

Some of the Russian executives interviewed noted the difficulty of managing business risks in a rapidly changing market environment. The analysis revealed that many companies in Russia consider the conscious maintenance of a positive image as an integral part of the competitive risk management system. More active reputational risk management in Russia (92% versus 82% on average for emerging market economies) confirms this conclusion.

Graph. 1 - Risk Management in Emerging Market Economies

It is important to consider the question of what risks in entrepreneurship in Russia are considered the most significant. Based on the data obtained, the following diagram was compiled, reflecting the priority of entrepreneurial risks and methods of managing them.

Graph. 2 - Key business risks faced by companies in Russia

When interviewed, entrepreneurs mentioned market or competitive risk as the main risk factor in Russia. According to the results of a selective survey, entrepreneurs in Russia give them a priority of 35%. In order to manage this risk, enterprises in Russia closely monitor the state and trends of the market and seek to determine the strategy of their competitors. There is a conscious desire to form and maintain a positive image, as well as to improve the social status of the enterprise.

Russian enterprises consider credit risks or risks associated with the insolvency of buyers as their main risks. Although these risks are of great concern to entrepreneurs of enterprises in all emerging market economies and rank second in importance among all risks, enterprises in Russia give them a significantly higher weight (45% in Russia versus 25% on average in emerging market economies). ). The study showed that a significant proportion of Russian enterprises, before establishing business relations with buyers or customers, conducts a rigorous due diligence of potential partners, including an assessment of the history of relations with the client, analysis of its creditworthiness and constant monitoring of activities. It is also common practice to limit the size of lending and work on a full prepayment basis.

In general, businesses in Russia view compliance with legal and regulatory requirements as a significant risk that needs to be managed, but do not prioritize it as much as competitive, credit or foreign exchange risks.

Imperfect legislation remains the main obstacle to the growth of insurance of financial and business risks

In the conditions when Russian enterprises expand their presence abroad, which is accompanied by the need to comply with local laws, the point of view of Russian managers is somewhat different. The study found that compliance risks are given more importance in Russia, as evidenced by third place on the priority scale (27%) compared to sixth place internationally (15%). As with other difficult-to-control risks, such as market risks, many Russian enterprises follow a policy of constantly monitoring changes in the regulatory framework. Businesses are more likely to react to changes in the international regulatory framework, but do not predict them.

A number of Russian executives also acknowledge the establishment of specialized risk management units or legal departments that include compliance risk management.

Transactional risks were another area to which enterprises in Russia attach more importance than the average in other countries (19% versus 9% on average for emerging market economies). Measures to manage these risks are varied and include a thorough assessment, a clear and documented approach, trained personnel in the field of risk management, constant monitoring at all stages, and transaction insurance.

In addition, entrepreneurs in Russia, as well as in other countries with developing market economies, cite foreign exchange or liquidity risks, political, personnel and price risks as the most significant risks that need to be managed in the domestic market.

Imperfection remains the main barrier to increasing financial and business risk insurance Russian legislation.

Insurance of business and financial risks in our time remains a "curiosity" in the Russian Federation. But as the country integrates into the world economy, it will become much more in demand than it is now.

If we say that insurance is the highest mathematics of finance, then, of course, we will have to say that the insurance of financial risks is the highest mathematics of insurance, because they determine each other. In the category of financial risks, we include a fairly wide and not completely defined list of risks.

When we mention business risk insurance, here it is a different case. Often, when we talk about insurance of financial and business risks, we do not distinguish between these two types.

But the law "On the organization of insurance business in the Russian Federation" contains a "Classification of types of insurance" (Article 32.9), in which 2 different types: "Insurance of financial risks" and "Insurance of entrepreneurial risks".

The object of financial risk insurance is the property interests of the insured, which are associated with the occurrence of expenses or losses due to the circumstances that were stipulated in the insurance contract.

A distinctive feature of business risk insurance, therefore, are the risks that are directly related to the implementation of commercial activities by the insured. This category also includes credit risk insurance, accounts receivable, and business interruption insurance.

Having data Federal Service on financial markets Russia (Figure 2), we can say that in 2011, insurance companies collected 12.03 billion rubles of premiums in the business and financial risks insurance sector, which is significantly higher than in the previous year, and the difference is 46.7%. Although, we should note that at the same time, the share of these types of insurance in the total volume of the insurance market, excluding compulsory medical insurance, at the end of the year amounted, according to various estimates, from 1.8 to 3% of the total insurance premium collected on the market, and if we talk only about insurance D & O - then about 1%.

Fig. 4 - Insurance of business and financial risks.

“Most likely, the traditional hope for the Russian “maybe” and that financial losses can somehow be avoided also plays a role. But recently, the recognition of this type of insurance as an effective and relatively inexpensive business tool has been growing. such as operating rooms or credit risks, the company becomes more attractive to investors and creditors."

The formation of a market system is also hampered by the general unpreparedness of insurers to start systemic insurance fin. risks, as well as the macroeconomic situation both in the Russian Federation and in the world, which does not always allow insurers to adequately assess risks.

The main obstacle to the development of financial insurance. Risks nevertheless continues to be our imperfection of the legislation. Financial risks, for example, do not have a separate article in Civil Code Russian Federation, there is no separate law.

Not every type of business risk insurance provides tax incentives. Let's give an illustrative example: in the Russian Federation, almost any type of insurance, with the exception of property insurance, is paid from profit.

Another problem is the fact that foreign insurers do not have the right to take part in the insurance of our Russian residents. The elimination of this problem would allow our insurers to have open access to first-class foreign companies, which could raise competition to a whole new level and, therefore, it would ensure the development of the segment in particular and the market as a whole. Imperfection (in terms of underdevelopment) of the market creates obstacles and therefore the number of insurance companies that would be ready to offer high-quality financial risk insurance services remains small.

In fact, there are not very many insurers who would be able to take on such risks, which reflects the correctness of our judgments before. This type insurance is in demand, however, the capabilities of insurers are limited, and many specifically do not want to take such risks for insurance due to imperfection legislative framework and lack of law enforcement practice on the territory of the Russian Federation.

The changes currently taking place in the economy of the Russian Federation do not create a low risk background for all kinds of economic activity. The discipline of risk management in a market economy in the highest circles of Russia remains rather unsettled: the position of "risk manager" and related topics are mentioned in several university programs, but the issue of adopting an appropriate standard is unnecessarily dragged out. A large number of businessmen who live in conditions of everyday ongoing risks cannot afford to divert their attention from current affairs in order to study risk management and the risks of their company as well.

Cardinal changes in Russia began in the conditions of the collapse of the Soviet Union, political and economic instability, and inconsistencies in a number of laws. This course of events inevitably increased the overall degree of risks in the economy of our country. This is important, because the level and specifics of risks to a decisive extent affect its investment and general business climate.

For Russia, most of the already existing risk-related experience is only a foreign share. As sad as it would be to say, the Russian economy is becoming the "leader" in disasters and losses, and conscious risk management has not yet become standard management activities, which, as already mentioned, has long existed in the West and in America. At one time, all countries with a developed market economy went through periods of development similar to the modern period in Russia. Only this process was evolutionarily extended over decades, which allowed them to accumulate experience, create specialized literature, develop market infrastructure, form a culture that allows these nations to deal with unjustified risks: high and low.

In the summer of 2010, with the direct support of the "Russian Society for Risk Management" (RusRisk) and " Russian Union Industrialists and Entrepreneurs" (RSPP) conducted a postal survey of about a thousand firms participating in the competition for the title of the best enterprise in the Russian Federation. Most of those who filled out the questionnaire hold positions with various kinds of names, but in general something similar to higher executive heads(CEO), chief financial officer (CFO) or deputy chief executive officer for development and/or marketing. The conclusions that we can draw already on the basis of this study are not without interest. Below are the main results of the survey.

Most of the respondents consider the risk situation in the Russian Federation to be about 1.5 times more tense than in countries with, in their opinion, a well-established market economy. This is similar to the results of studies conducted by such industry leaders as Marsh, AIG, AON and Willis, which classify the Russian Federation as a high-risk country for almost all major risks. According to the results of a similar survey, respondents on average assess the riskiness of Russia at the level of 65-70 points on a 100-point scale. You can't say it's good or bad. This is indicative, because the Russian economy really requires the development of a risk management infrastructure, and most investors, with the exception of some venture funds, prefer to work in less "warmed up" economies. All this tells us that Russia's prospects are not as bleak as they think abroad. Although, it's no secret that foreign investors underestimate the Russian market. So, let's get down to the facts.

Here are the findings of yet another survey: foreigners assess the Russian level of risks by 10-15% higher than Russian managers do. At the same time, Russian managers believe that it is easier and safer for foreigners to work in Russia than for domestic entrepreneurs; about 40% of competent respondents have increased sensitivity to risk, approximately 40% - moderate, and 20% - clearly underestimated; the risk spectrum from the most relevant risks to the less relevant ones (according to a 100-point system) means (Fig. 3):

Fig.5 - Assessment of the Russian level by foreigners

The specificity of the risk situation in the economy of the Russian Federation that we briefly present leads to two main results - inadequate riskiness and inadequate caution of the organizers of enterprises (and companies, firms, organizations in general), which ultimately leads to a drop in their level of competitiveness by modern market. The risks increase every time the degree of instability increases, rapid reforms or spontaneous changes occur in the economy, that is, during periods of its transformation. Composition and magnitude of many market risks. economies are influenced by people and various organizations. The frequency and severity of the consequences of probable, but not mandatory and highly undesirable events, to a large extent depends on their actual activity/actions. The behavior of firms is revealed by its management, that is, the decisions made by their leaders. To solve high risk problems Russian economy a lot is required, but 2 factors are of paramount importance: a sound education system and political will.

Another result of the protracted restructuring is obsolete fixed assets. Buildings and structures are old and have not been repaired for a long time. Machine tools, locomotives, aircraft and ships are worn out. Depreciation of fixed assets in the Russian economy as of the beginning of the XXI century. different experts estimate from 60% to 70%. The risks posed by the country's huge large park that is outdated and has not been properly maintained for many decades are extremely high.

We should be aware that studies have shown that the composition of risks, which is included in the current risk profile of Russian companies, does not differ too much from those of Western organizations. Insurers and bankers have already done enough to study the real risk profile of the Russian economy. However, this is not enough. We need to bring the level of knowledge and awareness of the risks of the modern Russian economy to the level of countries with old market traditions that developed back in the last century.

In the conjuncture of the Russian Federation, the need to quickly master the methods of risk management is primarily due to the fact that effective mechanisms for supporting organizations in crisis situations have not yet been developed. Most of the economically active objects are legally independent. This means no obligation to provide government support or protection in the event of a strike, accident or financial hardship. Existing state systems of judiciary, arbitration and enforcement are not only ineffective, but are sometimes used for aggressive purposes. In other words, the economic independence of an economic entity implies both an increase in opportunities and an increase in dangers. This is a general increase in strategic risk, which implies an increase in risks throughout the risk space. In such conditions, former socialist organizations or newly created capitalist companies are obliged to personally take care of preventive measures to protect their own sustainability, to create vital reserves, to mobilize internal and external financing, both to prevent undesirable events and to recover from them. The situation is also worsening due to the fact that the Soviet mentality of many organizers and managers of enterprises has not been overcome, who see in state bodies a reliable stabilizing factor, whose authority for them is indisputable. In reality, things now have to be dealt with with sharply increased uncertainties of various kinds and types without the participation of the state - a direct state support.

.2 Ways to reduce business risk

Entrepreneurial activity is risky. The task of the entrepreneur is the activity aimed at reducing the degree of entrepreneurial risk as much as possible. To solve the problem, various methods are used: diversification, limiting, insurance, reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses, risk distribution, obtaining more information about the upcoming choice and results.

Diversification has such a definition as the distribution of capital investments among various types of activities, the results of which are not directly related to each other.

The peculiarity of diversification is that an enterprise that incurs losses in one type of activity can make a profit at the expense of another type of activity. Diversification improves the company's resilience to changes in the business environment.

Insurance plays a significant role in business risk and has its own definition, it is a kind of "transfer" of certain risks to an insurance company. To reduce the degree of risk, property insurance and accident insurance are widely used. Property insurance is usually divided into the following forms: contract construction risk insurance, equipment insurance, cargo insurance, etc. Accident insurance includes general civil liability insurance and professional liability insurance. Also widely used in our country is such a type of insurance as hedging, which is insurance of the price of a product against the risk of either a fall that is undesirable for the organizers of production, or an increase that is unfavorable for the consumer.

According to the technique and purposes of the operation, hedging is divided into hedging by sale, that is, the preparation and acceptance by the manufacturer or commodity owner of a futures contract in order to insure against a price reduction when selling in the future goods, either already available or not yet produced, but provided for mandatory delivery within a certain period; purchase hedging - the conclusion by the seller or consumer of a futures contract in order to insure against an increase in price when buying in the future the necessary type of manufactured product.

Limitation implies limit attribution, i.e. deterministic cost amounts, sale of goods on loan, capital investment amounts, etc.

Reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses implies establishing a ratio between possible risks and the amount of expenses that are necessary to overcome the negative consequences of these risks. This method of risk reduction is most often used in the execution of various kinds of projects. In general, the reserve is applicable for financing additional work, compensation for unforeseen changes in material and labor costs, overhead costs and other kinds of costs that arise during the implementation of the assigned project.

By risk sharing, we mean the sharing of risk among the participants in the project itself. The growth in the size and duration of investment, the introduction of new technologies, the high dynamism of the external environment - all this increases the degree of risk of the project being adopted. So, one of the ways to share the risk is factoring operations. In the practice of foreign banks, the development of factoring operations is mainly associated with the need for individual suppliers to quickly receive payments that seem doubtful to them. As a rule, in such situations there is a risk associated with non-payment of money by the payer at all. The bank that bought such claims from the supplier may in this case incur losses itself. Factoring operations are classified as extremely high-risk operations. The size of the commission depends both on the level of risk (on the level of "doubtfulness" of the redeemed debt), and on the duration of the contractual delay. In some cases, it reaches twenty percent of total amount payment. Any management decision is made in conditions where the results are not defined and the information is not complete or even limited. Thus, the wider the information source, the more opportunities to make a better forecast and reduce the perceived risk. The cost of complete information should be calculated as the difference between the likely cost of a particular activity (project) when complete (or nearly complete) information is available and the expected cost when information is not complete.

There are 3 main principles for risk reduction that should be considered common in business reality:

do not risk more than your own capital allows;

always remember the consequences of risk;

Don't risk a lot for a little.

Conclusion

Any enterprise bears the risks associated with its production, commercial and other activities, and the heads of the enterprise are responsible for the consequences of management decisions made by the company. The risk factor in entrepreneurial activity increases significantly during periods of unstable economic conditions, accompanied by inflationary processes, super-expensive loans, etc. This was especially pronounced at the beginning of the 2008 global financial crisis.

We considered entrepreneurial risk as well as an economic category, whereby we defined risk as an event that may or may not occur.

Of course, entrepreneurial risk is the reverse side of economic freedom, a certain price for it. The freedom of one organizer of an enterprise is accompanied at the same time by the freedom of other entrepreneurs. It is quite reasonably assumed that whoever does not risk does not win. In order to achieve economic profit, an entrepreneur must consciously take one or another risky decision. We can also define entrepreneurial risk as the danger of a potentially probable, possible loss of capital or receiving only a part of income compared to the option that involves the rational use of capital in this type of entrepreneurial activity ...

Business in Russia is an extremely risky occupation, and the problems of insuring these risks are becoming perhaps the most important and relevant among other insurance problems.

The variety of entrepreneurial risks is very large - from fires and natural disasters to interethnic conflicts, changes in legislation and fluctuations in inflation. However, they have a single special feature that distinguishes them from general concept"risk" is a subjectivity that reflects the impact on the degree of risk of the personal human qualities of the organizer of the enterprise. A fire can happen in any enterprise, but with a high degree of probability it will happen where the entrepreneur, in the pursuit of super profits, neglects the rules fire safety. Therefore, when insuring entrepreneurial risks, the main thing is to be able to distinguish objective risk factors from subjective, speculative ones that depend solely on the personality of the entrepreneur. Such subjective risks for insurance, as a rule, are not accepted in practice.

Entrepreneurial risks largely depend on the type of entrepreneurial activity - production, services, trade. Depending on this, certain types of property and liability insurance are applied, and when it comes to protecting the personal interests of employees or the production manager himself, then types of personal insurance. Specific types of insurance of business risks are insurance of banking and financial risks, and we can also include insurance of risks of foreign trade operations among them.

Financial risk is usually understood as the risk that arises in financial transactions (investing in banks, playing on the stock exchange, shares, etc.). This risk is associated with non-receipt of income or with the loss of part (or even all) of the money and, in fact, is speculative. Therefore, only the objective part of the financial risks associated, for example, with the bankruptcy of an enterprise partner of the insured, is accepted for insurance. Another type of financial risk is investment risk. It is associated with the specifics of investing (investing) funds in various projects. An important type of financial risk insurance is insurance of losses from temporary stoppages in production, for example, due to a fire in a workshop.

Banking, like any business, is inevitably associated with risks. In foreign, and in recent years in domestic practice, banking risk insurance is singled out in the general package of insurance coverage for banks.

Insurance of commercial and political risks of foreign trade operations in developed countries is an integral part foreign economic activity. Political risks are associated with changes in state policy, legislation, the emergence of armed conflicts in the country where the funds of domestic investors are invested. Commercial risks, in turn, are associated with the bankruptcy of foreign partners, the loss of goods in transit, delays in payments, etc.

In general, business risk insurance is comprehensive, including all branches of insurance…

Bibliography

Official documents:

1.Law of the Russian Federation of November 27, 1992 N 4015-I "On the organization of insurance business in the Russian Federation" (as amended and supplemented by the edition of December 25, 2012)

Monographs, collective works, collections scientific papers:

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16.Information and analytical portal (PROFILE): [website]. URL: #"center"> Applications

Attachment 1

Comparative analysis risk impact assessment methods

Group of methodsContent of methodsInformation baseIndicators of risk assessmentAdvantagesDisadvantagesPoint estimation of risk probabilityThe probability of obtaining the actual value of the result is less than the criterion parameter. Based on the law of distribution of possible values of the results of activities Statistical data Probability of the result deviating from the specified value; frequency; frequency Objectivity Difficulty in selecting an appropriate distribution function; based on historical data; the necessary statistical information is not always available; does not contain an assessment of the reliability of the result obtained Interval assessment of the risk indicator The probability that the result of the situation will be within the specified interval is calculated. the probability of obtaining such a probability result; confidence interval; time horizonObjectivity. Assessing the probability of the result Difficulty in selecting an appropriate distribution function; based on historical data; the necessary statistical information is not always available; the composition and structure of the estimated parameters (assets) must remain unchanged throughout the time interval. variation range indicator; dispersion; standard deviation; confidence interval; coefficient of variation Simplicity of mathematical calculations The variance does not show the sign of the deviation; a large amount of data is needed; based on historical data; the necessary statistical information is not always available Expert risk assessment A set of logical and mathematical procedures aimed at obtaining information from expert experts, its analysis and generalization in order to select rational decision Expert information A set of indicators developed within the framework of a specific study No statistical information is required Subjective assessment

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Risk is a key element of entrepreneurship in a market economy. The characteristic features of risk are uncertainty, surprise, uncertainty, the assumption that success will come. In conditions of political and economic instability, the degree of risk increases significantly. In the current crisis conditions, the problem of increasing risks is very relevant.

Risk is the possibility of adverse situations in the course of implementing the plans and executing the budgets of the enterprise.

In entrepreneurial activity, it is important to properly allocate risks between counterparties. The partner in the project who is best able to calculate and control risks should become responsible for the risk. The risk is shared during the development of the project's financial plan and contractual documents.

There are the following main types of risks:

Production risk is associated with the production and sale of products (works, services), the implementation of any types of production activities. This type of risk is most sensitive to changes in the planned volumes of production and sales of products, planned material and labor costs, to changes in prices, marriage, etc.

In modern conditions in Russia, the production risk is high, so production activities have become the most risky.

There are risks in this area:

Failure to comply with business contracts

Changes in market conditions, increased competition,

The occurrence of unforeseen costs,

Loss of company property.

Commercial risk arises in the process of selling goods purchased by an entrepreneur (rendering services). In a commercial transaction, it is necessary to take into account such factors as: an unfavorable change (increase) in the price of purchased means of production; reduction in the price at which products are sold; loss of goods in the process of circulation; increase in distribution costs.

Financial risk may arise in the course of financial business or financial (monetary) transactions. Financial risk, along with factors characteristic of other types of entrepreneurial risk, is also affected by such factors as the insolvency of one of the parties to a financial transaction, restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, etc.

The reason for the investment risk may be the depreciation of the investment and financial portfolio, consisting of own and acquired securities.

Market risk is associated with possible fluctuations in market interest rates, national currency(s) or foreign exchange rates.

Sources of political risk can be a decrease in business activity of people, non-execution of adopted legislative acts, instability of tax rates, violation of payments and mutual settlements, alienation of property or funds.

Losses from risk in entrepreneurial activity are divided into:

Material losses are costs not provided for by the project or direct losses of material objects in kind (buildings, structures, transmission devices, products, materials, raw materials, etc.).

Labor losses - the loss of working time caused by accidental or unforeseen circumstances.

Financial losses arise as a result of direct monetary damage (unforeseen payments, fines, payments for overdue loans, additional taxes, loss of funds or securities).

Losses of time occur if the process of entrepreneurial activity is slower than envisaged by the project.

Special types of losses - losses associated with damage to the health and life of people, the environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur and other adverse social and moral and psychological factors.

The means of resolving entrepreneurial risks are their avoidance, retention, transfer, and reduction of the degree.

Risk avoidance refers to the simple avoidance of risk-related activities. However, avoiding risk for an entrepreneur often means forgoing profit.

Risk retention implies leaving the risk to the investor, i.e. on his responsibility.

The transfer of risk means that the investor transfers the responsibility for the financial risk to someone else, such as an insurance company.

Risk reduction is the reduction of the probability and amount of losses.

When choosing a specific means of resolving financial risk, the investor should proceed from the following principles:

1) you can not risk more than your own capital can afford;

2) one must think about the consequences of the risk;

3) you can not risk a lot for the sake of a little.

The implementation of the first principle means that, before investing, the investor must:

Determine the maximum possible amount of loss for this risk;

Compare it with the amount of invested capital;

Compare it with all your own financial resources and determine whether the loss of this capital will lead to the bankruptcy of the investor.

The implementation of the second principle requires that the investor, knowing the maximum possible loss, determine what it can lead to, what is the probability of the risk, and make a decision to reject the risk (i.e., from the event), to take the risk on his own responsibility or on the transfer of risk to the responsibility of another person.

The operation of the third principle is especially pronounced in the transfer of financial risk. In this case, it means that the investor must determine the ratio between the insurance premium and the sum insured that is acceptable to him. The risk must not be withheld, i.e. the investor should not take the risk if the loss is relatively large compared to the savings in insurance premiums.

To reduce the degree of financial risk, various methods are used:

Diversification is the dispersion of investment risk, i.e. distribution of invested funds among various investment objects that are not directly related to each other.

Limitation is the setting of a limit, i.e. limits on expenses, sales, loans, etc. Limitation is an important means of reducing the degree of risk and is used by banks when issuing loans when concluding an overdraft agreement; by an economic entity - when selling goods on credit, using traveler's checks and eurocheques, etc.; by the investor - when determining the amount of capital investment, etc.

Insurance, the essence of which lies in the fact that the investor is ready to give up part of the income, just to avoid risk, i.e. he is willing to pay to reduce the risk to zero. In the process of insurance, funds are redistributed between the participants in the creation of the insurance fund: compensation for damage to one or several insurers is carried out by distributing losses to all. The number of policyholders who made payments during a given period is greater than the number of those who receive reimbursement.

Securitization is the participation of two banks in a lending operation. A credit transaction is carried out in two stages: 1) development of conditions and conclusion of a credit agreement (transaction); 2) granting a loan to a borrower. The essence of securitization is that these two stages are performed by different banks.

Types of business risk. Organization of entrepreneurial activity Types and causes of entrepreneurial risks

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