Project cost management. Input information for the cost estimation process

Cost estimate is the process of determining all the costs necessary for the successful and complete implementation of the project.

This is an iterative process of getting exemplary data on the cost of work and resources. Estimates may be updated as the project progresses. The allowable error of estimates depends on the purpose of the data obtained and on the phase of the project.

That is, any estimate of the cost in the project is approximate. However, as the project progresses, the estimates should be refined and become more realistic.

The message of the head of the IT department on the cost of implementing the SAP ERP system in the company at the stage of analyzing the feasibility of such a project may well look like "3-4 million rubles."

In the future, this estimate should become much more accurate.

Main types of project cost estimates:

1) rough order of magnitude- cost expectations of the project, which is at the stage of conception or idea;

2) order of magnitude– project cost assumptions calculated in a business plan or similar document;

3) budget estimate– an estimate of the cost of the project, obtained on the basis of data provided by suppliers and contractors;

4) accurate estimate - cost estimate included in the budget when determining the final planned cost of the project before moving to the implementation phase.

As input to the cost estimate, the project manager needs information about the scope of the project.

In the initial stages, this will be the Charter or Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) of the project, and in subsequent stages, its detailed calendar plan. It all depends on the iteration number of the cost estimate.

To get a rough estimate of the cost of a project, sometimes just the idea and design of the project is enough.

More accurate estimates require correspondingly more detailed information.

AT evaluation of the cost of work all must be taken into account constituents(i.e. cost items for performing work):

1) materials and components;

2) purchased equipment, transport;

3) lease payments (space, equipment, transport);

4) rental / leasing costs (purchase, leasing / leasing);

5) production capacity;


6) the cost of personnel labor;

7) costs for expendable materials;

8) expenses for training and internships;

9) expenses for holding events (conferences, seminars);

10) travel expenses;

11) logistics costs;

12) hospitality expenses.

Methods to be used in valuation, depend on the specific project, qualification of experts and other factors.

For example, to get quality result estimating the cost using the “bottom-up” method, it is necessary to have a sufficiently detailed hierarchical structure of work. A well-designed IBS will not be superfluous when using other assessment methods. In the absence of detailed hierarchical structure work, you may have to start with a top-down approach.

There are the following cost estimation methods:

1) Parametric Estimation - a method in which a statistical relationship between the cost of an operation and other variables (parameters) is used for valuation, obtained on the basis of an analysis of historical data (for example, the size of the construction area in construction, the number of lines in the program code, the number of hours of working time).

Empirically, the cost of one unit of the volume of work is calculated (for example, the cost of building 1 sq.m of housing, 1 hour of work of an expert, etc.). When calculating the cost, various formulas are used, and to calculate the cost of the full scope of work, they proceed from the cost of a single unit of the scope of work;

2) Evaluation by analogues - method of estimating the cost by analogy with similar work performed in this or other projects. The peer-to-peer valuation method can apply to the entire package of work or be used in conjunction with a parametric valuation when there is information about the performance of similar work, but of a different scope or under different conditions.

The advantage of the method is the ability to obtain a more accurate estimate (because there is information not only about the planned cost of the analyzed work, but also about their actual cost).


The difference between planned cost and actual cost can give the project manager Additional information for reflection;

3) Bottom-up evaluation– technology for evaluating large volumes of work by summing up estimates obtained for smaller components of this work.

The more detailed and accurate the project WBS is developed, the more accurate and correct the cost estimates for the project can be obtained. The bottom-up method is considered one of the most accurate.

For example,

Before handing over a new server to the customer, it must be tested. The cost of server testing can be determined in a bottom-up fashion. This will be the sum of the costs:

Regular testing;

stress tests;

Load testing in a thermal chamber;

4) Top-Down Appraisal Method(considered significantly less accurate than the bottom-up method) - used in the absence of a detailed WBS, lack of information about the resources and materials necessary for the implementation of the work.

The estimation technology assumes reverse steps in relation to the bottom-up method. First, an aggregated assessment of the entire package of works is given, and then it is detailed and decomposed into individual elements (by work, performers, etc.).

The method is applied in the early stages of the project, when its viability is being assessed and it is not clear whether resources should be spent on more detailed planning and evaluation;

5) Analysis of contractors' proposals - a very simple method, subject to the availability of performers and contractors willing to perform this amount of work.

The terms of reference, tender or other documentation is sent to applicant contractors with a request to provide their estimates of the cost (and often the duration) of the performance of these works.

When using the method of analyzing the proposals of performers, one should adhere to simple rules:

1) do not accept the first offer;

2) do not accept the cheapest offer;

3) do not accept an offer that is too expensive;

4) do not use the cost of the offer as the only criterion when making a decision.

For example, when starting to renovate an apartment, the manager tried to get an estimate of the cost this project, analyzing the proposals of the performers and the "top-down" method. The top-down method is considered not very accurate. Without developing an IBS, without defining the composition and structure of work, the manager prepared technical task for repairs


two-room apartment with an area of ​​​​55 sq.m, sent it to six companies offering apartment renovation services on the market, and requested a project estimate (one company was selected market segment, offering repairs of the "middle" level; companies offering luxury repairs did not participate in the process).

The lowest and highest repair cost estimates from all vendors differed by a factor of 8. In the estimate with the lowest price, it was supposed to spend 24 bags of a mixture for leveling walls (25 kg each) during the repair, with the most expensive - 420 bags.

The same thing happens on any project (plus image and marketing components). An estimate from a contracting company - a market leader will be much more expensive than from another market participant. The same will happen if the estimate is developed for the customer company, which is the market leader. This should not confuse the project manager. It is necessary to discard the extreme values ​​(highest and lowest) and continue to analyze the remaining sentences.

In the case of a tender for the selection of suppliers, all components of the proposal are analyzed as a whole (including the proposed terms, quality criteria and other indicators, and not just the price), and this problem becomes less acute.

Comparative characteristics methods for estimating the cost of the project is given in table 1.

Table 1 - Comparison of project cost estimation methods

Assessment Method Reasons for application Scope (project stage) The necessary conditions
1) Parametric estimation Availability of estimates of the scope of work and the standard cost of individual elements of work. Any stage of the project. Accuracy depends on the accuracy of estimates of the scope of work and their standard cost. Ability to standardize work. Possibility of calculation of estimations, proceeding from their volume parameters of works. Availability of cost standards for individual standard operations.
2) Evaluation by analogues Lack of detailed information. early stages of the project. Similarity of works in content and type. Availability of information about the actual cost of the work-analogue. The experience of the participants.
3) Bottom-up evaluation There is a need for an updated cost estimate. Recommended for the detailed planning phase. Low labor intensity and volume of work of individual operations. Availability of sufficiently accurate estimates of the required resources for individual operations.

Reassessment of the cost. Historical information about the cost of individual typical operations. Existence of cost standards. Carefully crafted ISR.
4) Top-down evaluation The need for a quick, aggregated cost estimate. Stage of conception (idea) of the project. Possibility of an aggregated estimate of the cost of the entire project.
5) Analysis of the proposals of the performers Purchase of equipment from suppliers. Tender organization. Possibility to perform work by external organizations. Relevant project stages. High-quality tender (competitive) documentation. Detailed proposals of the contestants (offers). Availability of peer review. Balanced system indicators.

The result of the cost estimate is the cost estimate for each work separately and as a whole for the project. This can be done in tabular form (see table 2).

Table 2 – An example of project cost estimation (“Organization of the contest “The Best Taxpayer of St. Petersburg”)

For the purpose of obtaining valuations High Quality the project manager should involve subject experts, functional specialists with sufficient experience to participate in such work.

To improve process quality cost estimates The project manager is advised to adhere to the following principles:

1) The principle of optimal responsible“The best estimate of the value of a task is the one who understands it best.”

Often such a person is the direct executor of the task (his estimates are the most accurate, they are justified by his experience and expert knowledge). In addition, by involving performers in the planning process, the project manager thereby increases their motivation and responsibility for the result when completing the task;

2) The principle of independence cost estimates for operations and work must be maintained independently of estimates for related work.

Each job is treated as independent of other jobs. Interrelationships between jobs, associated risks and associated variances will be taken into account when aggregating the information received at a higher level of planning;

3) The principle of adequacy of conditions– when evaluating and calculating the work, the expert should be guided by the assumption that he has adequate conditions for implementation, a sufficient amount of resources, effective methods performance of work.

Of course, the calculations obtained in this way are overly optimistic. To obtain more accurate estimates, the expert in his assumptions must adequately take into account the limitations of the project. Most likely, this will lead to an increase in grades, but it will be reasonable and adequate;

4) The principle of recognizing the presence of risks - estimates entered into planning documents should take into account unforeseen circumstances and risks that may affect the cost and timing of work.

It is absolutely normal to introduce risk reserves into the valuation. However, their value should be the result of an adequate, meaningful analysis and calculation. Introducing a “just in case” reserve into the cost of work is most often inefficient.


It turns into an elementary "reinsurance", planning "for every firefighter", not justified either by objective circumstances or by the real situation in the project;

5) The principle of the right to make a mistake Any estimate is a guess. Any assumption contains an error. The task of the expert is to make this error minimal.”

The introduction of penalties for errors, sanctions for any deviation of real data from forecast data will lead to “remortgages” and “reinsurance”. Performers and experts will provide for unreasonable reserves in order to avoid punishment. All estimates will contain exclusively pessimistic values. At the same time, there is practically no hope that under such conditions the actual and planned costs will coincide or that savings will appear. Murphy's Law states: "Any budget will be completely spent." Trusting an expert will significantly increase the accuracy of estimates.

Now imagine the process development of project estimates .

Development of estimates is a process of structuring and systematizing estimates of the cost of project work.

This process is carried out in accordance with the cost items adopted in the accounting system of the parent organization of the project.

estimate is a document containing an itemized list of project costs based on project scope, required resources, and prices.

If in a project (parent organization) it is customary to structure project estimates by work, then the process of developing estimates is greatly simplified. Estimates structured by work are transferred to the estimate and summarized in a single document.

If the company's requirement is to structure costs in the estimate by cost items, the process becomes somewhat more complicated.

There are the following types of costs:

1) Direct costs (expenses) - expenses directly related to the production of products, project work; production costs included in the cost of production, in direct production costs.

Direct costs are directly related to the work package and include:

Labor costs;

The cost of materials and equipment;

Other costs associated with the performance of work.


It is direct costs that can be directly affected by the project manager and his team. The impact of the project team on other costs is limited;

2) Overhead costs (indirect costs)- costs associated with the main production, but not directly related to it, not included in the cost of labor and materials.

Overhead costs cannot be tied to any specific work, specific result.

They apply to the entire project as a whole, incl. costs for:

Management, organization, maintenance of production;

Business trips;

Employee training.

3) General and administrative overheads (fixed costs) – costs not associated with any particular project.

They relate to the expenses of the company, but at the same time they are also related to the project (for example, the costs of maintaining the management apparatus, supporting units (accounting, secretariat, security, etc.)).

In some companies, the amount of general and administrative overheads is determined (for example, as a percentage). This amount is calculated by the project manager and added to the calculated direct costs. This practice has the right to life, although its application can sometimes cause a significant increase in the cost of the project.

Consider classification of project estimates:

2) by appointment.

Local;

Object;

Estimates for certain types costs;

Consolidated (consolidated estimate calculation).

Local estimates - primary document containing calculations and estimates of the cost of structural elements and types of work on the project in current or forecast prices.

AT local resource list include:

Labor costs of employees (man-hours);

Time of use of equipment (machine-hours);

Consumption of materials, products, structures, etc. (in accepted physical units of measurement).


AT local resource estimate calculation may be included:

Labor costs;

The cost of operating equipment;

Cost of materials;

Overheads;

Estimated profit;

Estimated cost.

An approximate structure of the local budget is shown in table 3.

Table 3 - The structure of the local estimate

An example of a local estimate is shown in Figure 1.

Object estimate - this is a document containing calculations and cost estimates for the object (objects) as a whole in basic or current prices:

- Base price is the price of a product of standard quality, on the basis of which the price of a product of a higher and Low quality, (for example, in the case when the properties of the actually delivered goods differ from those stipulated in the contract);

- Current price- this is the price or tariff in force in a given period of time (can be wholesale, purchasing, retail; prices and prices in construction; tariffs and prices for services provided to enterprises, organizations, and the public).

Based on the results of the development of the object estimate of the project, the project management team and the customer can receive indicators of the unit cost of the object:

The cost of 1 sq. m of area (for example, residential or office);

The cost of 1 cu. m of volume (for example, a structure under construction);

The cost of 1 m of length (for example, utilities);


Figure 1 - An example of a local estimate (fragment)

Normative labor intensity;

Estimated salary.

An example of an object estimate is shown in Figure 2.

Estimates for certain types of costs - documents containing calculations and cost estimates for costs not taken into account by estimated standards.

To certain types of costs can be attributed:

Bonus for early completion of the project;

Payment for consulting, audit services;

Payments of benefits and compensations;

Payment for unforeseen business trips, business trips;

Payment for transport for employees (delivery to the place of work);


Figure 2 - An example of an object estimate (fragment)

Insurance premiums for voluntary insurance;

Payment for operator services mobile communications, internet providers
and etc.

Consolidated estimate calculation (SSR) - the main document that determines the cost of the project, summarizing the data of local and object estimates and estimates for certain types of costs, in basic and current prices or in basic and forecast prices.

The structure and composition of the consolidated estimate calculation are shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 - The structure of the summary estimate of the project


In the consolidated estimate calculation, the data of local and object estimates are summed up and brought together to the level of the entire project. The final estimate calculation includes estimates for certain types of costs.

An explanatory note is usually attached to the summary estimate calculation (summary estimate), which contains the related information necessary for understanding the document and facilitating work with it.

By appointment estimates are divided into the following (see table 4):

- preliminary- are intended to determine the order of magnitude of the estimated costs of a starting project;

- primary (factorial)– designed to compare planned project costs with existing financial constraints;

- approximate- designed to make the final investment decision on the launch or abandonment of the project;

- consolidated- are intended for the final fixation of the cost of the project.

Table 4 - Varieties of estimates (depending on the purpose)

Project phase Type of estimate Appointment of the estimate Allowable error, %
1) Research investment opportunities preliminary Project viability assessment 25–40
2) Development and defense of a business plan Primary (or factorial) Analysis of planned costs in relation to existing restrictions (budget, credit, etc.) 15–25
3) Working design(initial phase) approximate Analysis of the project and making a “go / no go” decision (i.e. on suitability or unsuitability) for the project. Preparation of a project financing plan. 10–15
4) Development of a working draft Consolidated Pricing. Basis for calculating and managing project cost. 5–6

Thus, an estimate is a document that contains structured information about How many money and for what will be spent in the project.

Annotation: Cost estimation of the project. Classification of cost estimates. Types of estimates: top-down, bottom-up, parametric, by analogs. Estimating the cost of operations. Auxiliary data for estimating the cost of operations. Development of spending budgets. Basic cost plan. Cost management. Methods for measuring project performance. Earned value method. Analysis of indicators. Forecasting the conditions for the implementation of the project

A project is considered successful if it is completed within deadlines, performed within the budget and in accordance with the expectations of the customer. Cost management is to enforce the triple constraint on project management - cost, timing, and scope [10]. Cost management The project management process integrates the processes involved in planning, budgeting, and cost control to ensure that the project is completed within the approved budget. To processes cost management relate:

valuation- determination of the approximate cost of resources required to carry out project operations;

cost budgeting- summation cost estimates individual operations or work packages in order to form base plan by cost ;

cost management- influence on the factors causing deviations in cost, and management of changes in the project budget.

The interaction of processes is shown in fig. 6.1.


Rice. 6.1.

With absence cost management the project tends to get out of control and its cost increases. Let's take a closer look at each of the processes.

Valuation

Valuation is the process of establishing value project resources based on certain facts and assumptions. To determine the valuation, first of all, it is necessary to determine the operations (operation package), duration of operations and required resources. The evaluation process and its outcome largely depend on the accuracy of the description of the content, the quality of the information available, and the stage of the project. The valuation process is influenced by: the time allotted for the estimated operation, the experience of the manager, the valuation tools, the specified accuracy. Cost estimate The project begins at the pre-project stage (before the conclusion of the contract) and is carried out during the entire duration of the project. There are the following cost estimates [ 12 ] :

  • order of magnitude estimate;
  • conceptual assessment;
  • preliminary estimate;
  • final score;
  • control evaluation.

At the pre-project stage, only the order of magnitude of the cost can initially be determined. The accuracy of estimating the order of magnitude of the project cost can range from (-50%) to (+100%). The accuracy of the conceptual assessment is in the range (-30%) - (+50%). The accuracy of the preliminary project estimate ranges from (-20%) to (+30%). At the final evaluation stage, the accuracy ranges from (-15%) to (+20%). The control estimate has an accuracy of -10% to +15%. Thus, each subsequent stage life cycle project has a more accurate cost estimate (Fig. 6.2).


Rice. 6.2.

Valuation usually expressed in units of currency (dollars, rubles, etc.) to facilitate comparison of projects and transactions within a project.

The cost of schedule activities is estimated for all resources involved in the project. Resources include, but are not limited to, specialists, equipment, telephone communications, Internet , rented premises, as well as special items of expenditure, such as inflation adjustment or contingency costs.

Input information for the cost estimation process

Factors external environment enterprises. Environmental factors include market conditions, commercial databases and price lists. Market conditions are the market information systems, their competitive functionality, cost, implementation services, support. Commercial databases and price lists contain qualification and cost information labor resources, the cost of implementing information systems.

Assets organizational process - formal and informal rules, procedures and guidelines for valuation, valuation templates, information on the cost of previously completed projects.

Description of the scope of the project contains important information about the requirements, constraints and assumptions of the project, which must be taken into account when estimating the cost.

Hierarchical structure of works defines the relationship between all elements of the project and the results of the project.

ISR Dictionary contains detailed description work for each WBS element.

Project management plan - overall plan activities for the execution, monitoring and control of the project, containing instructions and guidelines for drawing up a plan cost management and control over its execution, as well as additional plans:

  • schedule management plan ;
  • staffing management plan contains characteristics staffing and tariff rates project staff and are necessary elements in the preparation of the cost estimate of the schedule;
  • risk register- when determining the valuation, information regarding the response to risks is taken into account. Risks can lead to negative or favorable consequences, so they affect both schedule activities and project costs. In the event of a negative risk, the cost of the project may increase.
Tools and methods used for valuation

Depending on the stage of the project, the required degree of accuracy, possible costs and labor, various types of cost estimates.

Top-down evaluation applied at early stages in conditions of insufficient information about the project. Only one is produced cost estimate of the entire project at the highest level. Such an estimate does not require much effort, but has low accuracy.

Evaluation by analogues represents a top-down view of the evaluation. It uses actual cost previously completed projects to evaluate the current project. Given a very similar project, the estimate can be fairly accurate. This type of assessment is applied at any stage project life cycle. Evaluation by analogs does not require much effort with guaranteed accuracy, but it is not always possible to find and identify similar projects. The accuracy of estimation by analogy ranges from -30% to +50%. The cost of preparing such an estimate is 0.04%-0.15% of the total project cost.

Bottom-Up Estimation used at the stage of preparation of the basic plan of the project and the formation of the control estimate. The process begins with an assessment of the details of the project, followed by summing up the details at final levels. The degree of accuracy of the estimate depends on the level of detail of the WBS. Bottom-up estimation provides accuracy from +0.15/-10% to +5%/-5%, but has a high cost (from 0.45% to 2% of the total project cost) and duration.

Parametric Estimation applied early in the project. The parametric evaluation process consists in determining the parameters of the project being evaluated, which change in proportion to the cost of the project. Based on one or more parameters, a mathematical model is created. For example, the cost of developing a line of code can be chosen as a software development parameter. For cost estimates survey can be selected number of automated business processes. The most common setting cost estimates IT-projects is the amount of required working time to perform operations (package of operations). With a close relationship between cost and design parameters, and with the ability to accurately measure the parameters, the accuracy of the calculations can be increased. Advantage this method: for

Activity duration estimation is the process of estimating the number of working periods required to complete individual activities with estimated resources. Activity duration estimation uses information about the activity scope of work, required resource types, resource quantity estimates, and resource calendars. The inputs for estimating activity durations come from one or more of the project team members most familiar with the nature of the activity in question. The duration estimate is progressively refined and the process takes into account the quality and availability of input data. For example, as the engineering work progresses on a project, the data becomes more detailed and defined, and the accuracy of duration estimates increases. Thus, it can be considered that over time, the duration estimate gradually becomes more accurate, and its reliability increases.

The process of estimating the duration of operations requires that the labor intensity of the work and the amount of resources required to complete the operation are estimated; they are used to roughly estimate the number of working periods (duration of an operation) needed to complete an operation. For each activity duration estimate, all data and assumptions used in the duration estimation are documented.

Most scheduling project management software handles this situation with a project calendar and alternative resource-driven calendars that have specific work periods. In addition to workflow logic, activities are performed according to the project calendar and the corresponding resource calendars.

Process inputs Activity duration estimation:

· List of operations (described above);

· Operation parameters (described above);

·

· Resource calendars

· Description of the scope of the project

· Enterprise environmental factors

· Organization Process Assets

Ratings resource requirements operations affect the duration of operations because the resources assigned to an operation and their availability have a significant impact on the duration of most operations. For example, if additional resources or resources with lower skills are assigned to an operation, their effectiveness or productivity may be reduced due to the increased need for communication, training, and coordination.

Resource Calendar, developed as part of the operations resource requirements assessment process, may include the type, availability, and capabilities human resources. Also taken into account are the type, quantity, availability and capability (if applicable) of both equipment and material resources, which can have a significant impact on the duration of planned operations. For example, when appointing senior and junior full-time staff members, you can generally expect the senior staff member to complete a given task in less time than the junior staff member.

When estimating the duration of activities, the constraints and assumptions contained in the description of the scope of the project are taken into account. Examples of assumptions include, among others:

Existing conditions;

Availability of information;

Length of reporting periods.

Examples of restrictions include, but are not limited to:

Available qualified resources;

Terms and conditions of the contract.

Enterprise environmental factors that may influence the activity duration estimation process include, but are not limited to:

Duration estimation databases and other reference data;

performance indicators;

Process assets Entities that can influence the activity duration estimation process include, but are not limited to:

Historical duration information;

Project calendars;

scheduling methodology;

Accumulated knowledge.

Tools and methods of the process Estimation of the duration of operations:

· Expert review

· Evaluation by analogues

· Parametric Estimation

· Three-Point Estimates .

· Reserve analysis.

Expert assessments, based on historical information, can provide information on duration estimates or recommended maximum durations for operations from previous similar projects. Also expert opinions can be used to determine the need to use various methods estimates and ways to resolve differences between them.

Evaluation by analogues involves using parameters such as duration, budget, size, weight and complexity from previous similar projects as the basis for estimating the same parameters or measurements of a future project. When estimating duration, this method relies on the actual duration of previous similar projects as the basis for estimating the duration of the current project. This approach, which evaluates overall value, sometimes adapted based on known differences in project complexity.

Peer-to-peer duration estimation is often used to estimate the duration of a project when detailed information about the project is limited, such as in its early phases. When evaluating by analogs, historical information and expert judgment are used.

Analogue estimating is generally cheaper and less time consuming than other methods, but it is also usually less accurate. Peer-to-peer valuations can be applied to the entire project or to parts of it, and can also be used in conjunction with other valuation methods. Similarity valuation is most reliable when previous activities are similar in substance, not just form, and the project team members preparing the valuations have the necessary experience.

Parametric Estimation uses statistical relationships between historical data and other variables (for example, area in square meters in construction) to numerically estimate operation parameters such as cost, budget, and duration.

The duration of activities can be quantified by multiplying the amount of work to be done by the amount of labor time required to produce a unit of work. For example, the duration of an operation in a design project can be estimated by multiplying the number of drawings by the number of labor hours required to create one drawing; or the duration of laying the cable - by multiplying the number of meters of cable by the number of working hours required to lay one meter. For example, if the assigned resource is able to lay 25 meters of cable in an hour, the time required to lay 1000 meters would be 40 hours (1000 meters divided by 25 meters per hour).

For IT projects, the described approach is not acceptable.

This method may provide a higher degree of accuracy, depending on the experience and data underlying the model. Parametric timing estimates can be applied to the entire project or to parts of it, along with other estimation methods.

Three-Point Estimates

The accuracy of activity duration estimates can be improved by considering estimation uncertainties and risks. This concept comes from the Program Evaluation and Review Method (PERT). To estimate the range of operation duration, PERT uses three estimates:

Most probable (tm). The duration of the operation is determined taking into account the pre-allocation of resources, their productivity, a realistic assessment of their availability for this operation, dependence on other participants and delays.

Optimistic (to). The duration of the operation is based on the analysis of the most favorable scenario for the development of the operation.

Pessimistic (tp). The duration of the operation is based on the analysis of the most unfavorable scenario for the development of the operation.

PERT analysis allows you to determine the expected (te) duration of the operation by calculating the weighted average of these three estimates:

te =(to + 4tm + tp)/6

Duration estimates based on this equation (or even the simple arithmetic average of these three points) can give better accuracy, and the three points help clarify the range of uncertainty in duration estimates.

Reserve analysis. Duration estimates may include loss allowances (sometimes referred to as buffers or buffers) within the overall project schedule to eliminate scheduling uncertainty. The reserve for possible losses can be expressed as a percentage of the estimated duration of the operation, in a fixed number of working periods, or can be calculated using quantitative analysis methods.

As more accurate information about the project becomes available, provisions for possible losses can be used, reduced or eliminated. Possible losses should be clearly defined in the schedule documentation.

Process outputs Activity duration estimation:

· Activity duration estimates

·

Activity duration estimates are quantitative estimates of the most likely number of working periods required to complete operations. Activity duration estimates may include a range of possible values. For example:

The estimate "2 weeks +\- 2 days" means that the operation will be performed for at least 8 and no more than 12 days (assuming a five-day work week).

The assessment “the probability that the duration of the operation will exceed 3 weeks is 15%” means that the operation with a high probability (85%) will be completed in a time not exceeding 3 weeks.

Project document updates. Project documents that may be updated include, but are not limited to:

Operation parameters;

Assumptions made in estimating the duration of operations, such as skill level and availability of resources.

Schedule Development

Schedule development is the process of analyzing sequences of activities, their duration, resource requirements, and time constraints to create a project schedule. Entering activities, durations, and resources into the scheduling tool generates a schedule with planned completion dates for project activities. Developing an acceptable project schedule is often an iterative process. It defines the scheduled start and finish dates for activities and project milestones. Schedule development may require analysis and verification of duration and resource estimates to create an approved project schedule that can serve as a baseline against which performance will be tracked. Revising the schedule and keeping it realistic continues throughout the project as work progresses, the project management plan changes, and the nature of risk events is identified.

For more detailed information for scheduling see the Practice Standard for Scheduling.

Inputs of the Schedule Development process:

· List of operations

· Operation parameters

· Project network diagrams7

· Operation resource requirements

· Resource calendars

· Activity duration estimates

· Description of the scope of the project

· Enterprise environmental factors

· Process assets

All inputs have already been described previously.

Tools and Methods of the Schedule Development Process

· Network analysis

· Critical Path Method

· Critical chain method

· Resource Leveling

· Analysis of "what if" scenarios

· Applying Leads and Lags

· Schedule Compression

· Scheduling Tool

Network analysis is a technology for creating a project schedule. It uses a variety of analytical methods, such as the critical path method, the critical chain method, what-if scenario analysis, and resource leveling, to calculate early and late start and finish dates for unfinished parts of project activities. Some paths in the network may have points of convergence or divergence that can be identified and used in schedule compression analysis and other analyses.

Critical Path Method allows you to calculate the theoretical early start and finish dates, as well as the late start and finish dates for all activities without regard to resource constraints, by analyzing the back and forth through the project network. The early start and finish dates obtained are not necessarily the project schedule; rather, they indicate periods of time within which activities can be scheduled, subject to activity durations, logical relationships, leads, delays, and other known constraints.

The calculated early and late start and finish dates can be affected by the total slack of the operation, which allows for flexible scheduling and can be positive, negative, or zero. For any path in the network, scheduling flexibility, called total slack, is measured by the positive difference between early and late dates. Critical paths have either zero or negative slack, and scheduled activities on the critical path are called critical activities. The critical path is usually characterized by zero total slack. In networks, there may be several paths that are close to critical. To create paths in a network with zero or positive total slack, it may be necessary to adapt activity durations, logical links, leads, delays, and other timing constraints. After calculating the full slack of a path in the network, the free slack can also be determined - the period of time by which an operation can be delayed without causing an early start delay of any immediately subsequent operation in this network path.

Critical chain is a network analysis technique that reschedules a project based on resource constraints. Initially, the network diagram of the project is built on the basis of duration estimates, given dependencies and constraints. Then the critical path is calculated. After determining the critical path, the availability of resources is taken into account and, as a result, a schedule is determined taking into account resource constraints. The resulting schedule often has a modified critical path.

A resource constrained critical path is known as a critical chain. The critical chain method adds duration buffers in the form of no-work activities to manage uncertainty. One of the buffers located at the end of the critical chain is known as the design buffer and protects the status completion date from delays on the critical chain.

Additional buffers, known as feed buffers, are located at each point where chains of interconnected activities from outside the critical chain enter the critical chain. Feed buffers thus protect the critical circuit from falling behind on incoming circuits. The size of each buffer must take into account the uncertainty in the duration of the chain of dependent operations leading to this buffer. Once the schedule buffer activities are defined, the schedule activities are scheduled for the latest planned start and finish dates. Thus, instead of managing the full slack of network paths, the critical chain method concentrates on managing the remaining durations of the buffers by matching them with the remaining durations of the operation chains.

Resource Leveling is a network analysis method applied to a schedule that has already been analyzed by the critical path method. Resource leveling can be used when common or critical needed resources are only available at certain times or in limited quantities, or to keep resource usage constant. Resource leveling is necessary when resources are reassigned, for example, when a resource has been assigned to perform two or more operations in the same time period, when shared or critically needed resources are available only at certain times or only in limited quantities. Resource leveling can often change the original critical path.

Analysis of "what if" scenarios

This is an analysis of the question: “What happens if the situation develops according to scenario 'X'?” In this case, a network analysis is performed in which various scenarios are calculated using the schedule model (for example, the delay in the delivery of basic elements, the increase in the duration of individual engineering operations) or the impact of unforeseen events is modeled. external factors(for example, a strike or a change in the licensing procedure). The results of what-if analysis can be used to assess the feasibility of a project schedule under adverse conditions and to develop contingency and response plans to overcome or mitigate unexpected situations. Modeling involves calculating different project durations by using different assumptions about activity durations. The best known is the Monte Carlo method, in which a distribution of likely activity durations is determined for each activity and used to calculate the distribution of likely outputs for the entire project.

Leads and delays are refinements made during network analysis to develop a viable schedule.

Schedule Compression shortens the duration of a project without changing the scope of the project, time constraints, status dates, or other schedule targets. Schedule compression methods include:

compression. A schedule compression method that analyzes the trade-offs between cost and schedule to determine how to maximize schedule compression at minimum cost. Examples of compression might include approval overtime, the use of additional resources, or delivery acceleration charges for activities on the critical path. Compression is effective only for those operations where additional resources can reduce the duration. Compression does not always create a viable alternative and may result in increased risk and/or cost.

fast pass. With this method of schedule compression, phases or operations that are normally performed sequentially are executed in parallel. An example is the construction of the foundation of a building before all architectural drawings have been prepared. A fast pass can lead to rework and increased risk. The fast pass is applicable only when the operations can be overlapped to reduce the duration.

Automatic tools scheduling tools facilitate the scheduling process by generating start and finish dates based on activity information, network diagrams, resources, and activity durations. The scheduling tool can be used in conjunction with other software tools for project management or manual methods.

Outputs of the Schedule Development process:

· Project Schedule

· Basic schedule

· Schedule Data

· Project Document Updates

Project Schedule contains at least a planned start date and a planned finish date for each operation. If resource planning is carried out at an early stage, the project schedule will remain tentative until resources are confirmed and estimated start and end dates are confirmed. This process usually takes place no later than the development of the project management plan. A directive project schedule can also be developed with specific start and finish status dates for each activity. The project schedule can be presented in a summary form, sometimes referred to as a "high-level schedule" or "milestone schedule", or in a detailed form. Although the project schedule can be presented in tabular form, the most common graphical representation is in one of the following formats:

milestone charts. These charts are similar to strip charts, but only show scheduled start or end dates for key deliverables and key external events.

strip charts. The chart data, in which the bars represent transactions, shows the start and end dates of the transactions and their expected durations. Strip charts are relatively easy to read and are often used to present information to the top management of organizations. To control and exchange management information, aggregated summary transactions, sometimes called aggregated transactions, are used and displayed in strip charts, lasting between control events or combining several interdependent packages.

project network diagrams. Diagram data containing information about activity dates usually shows both the logic of the project network and the activities of the project's critical path. These diagrams can be presented in a "node operations" diagram format, or in a timeline-bound network diagram format, sometimes referred to as a "logical strip diagram".

Basic schedule is a special version of the project schedule developed using network analysis. It is accepted and approved by the project management team as a baseline schedule with baseline start and finish dates. The base schedule is an element of the project management plan.

Schedule Data project includes, at a minimum, schedule milestones, planned activities, activity parameters, and documentation of any identified assumptions and limitations. The level of detail of additional documentation varies depending on the application area. Additional documents may, in particular, include the following information:

Resource requirements for a given time period, often in the form of resource histograms;

Alternative schedules such as optimistic and pessimistic, with and without resource leveling, with and without required dates;

Provisions for possible losses.

Schedule data can include elements such as resource histograms, projections cash flows and schedules of orders and deliveries.

The documents projects that may be updated, include but are not limited to:

Operation resource requirements. Resource leveling can have a significant impact on preliminary estimates of the types and quantities of resources needed. If the resource leveling analysis changes the project's resource requirements, the requirements are updated.

Operation parameters. Operations parameters are updated to include revised resource requirements and any other revisions caused by the schedule development process.

Calendar. Each project calendar can use different calendar units as the basis for project scheduling.

Risk register. The risk register may need to be updated to reflect the opportunities or threats perceived as a result of the assumptions made for the scheduling.

Schedule Management

Schedule management is the process of monitoring the status of a project to evaluate its progress and manage changes to the base schedule. Schedule management is related to:

Determining the current state of the project schedule;

Influencing factors causing schedule changes;

Determination of the facts of changes in the project schedule;

Managing actual changes as they occur.

Schedule management is part of the implementation process general management changes

The project management plan contains the schedule management plan and the base schedule. The schedule management plan describes how the schedule is managed and controlled. The baseline schedule is used to compare against actual results to determine if changes, corrective actions, or preventive actions are required.


1. Evaluation but analogues

Peer-to-peer valuation means that when estimating the cost of the current project, the actual cost of previous similar projects is taken as the basis. This method is often used in cost estimating when there is a lack of detailed information about the project (for example, in the early phases of a project). The valuation of analogues is made using an expert assessment.

The peer valuation method is generally cheaper than other methods, but it is also less accurate. This method gives the most accurate results in cases where the previous project is similar to the current one not only in appearance, but also in essence, and for individuals or groups busy preparing estimates, there is the necessary knowledge.

2. Determination of resource cost rates

In order to cost schedule activities, the rater or costing team must know the unit cost rates (for example, personnel cost per hour or cost per cubic yard of bulk material). One method of obtaining information on rates is the usual collection of information from sellers. When concluding a contract for the supply of products, services or results, the contract may define standard rates and stipulate the conditions under which they increase. Another source of information about existing prices for goods and services are commercial databases and published price lists of sellers. If the actual rates are not known, then an estimate will need to be made for the rates as well.

3. Bottom-up evaluation

This method involves estimating the cost of individual work packages or individual schedule activities in as much detail as possible. This detailed cost is summed up or "rolled over" to more high levels and is used in reporting and for monitoring execution. The cost and accuracy of bottom-up cost estimates typically depend on the size and complexity of individual schedule activities or work packages. Typically, the lower the complexity of the operations, the higher the accuracy of the valuation of scheduled operations.

4. Parametric estimation

Parametric estimating is a method that uses a statistical relationship between historical data and other variables (for example, the area of ​​a structure in construction, the number of lines in the program code, the number of hours of work time) to estimate the cost of schedule activity resources. Using this method, you can get a more accurate estimate of the cost. The level of accuracy of the estimate depends on the complexity, the amount of resources dedicated to such work, and the cost data built into the model. For example: in order to get a cost estimate, you need to multiply the planned amount of work by the cost of one unit in the past.

5. Project management software

Various methods are widely used to estimate the cost of projects. software project management, such as stand-alone costing applications, spreadsheets, and statistical modeling and processing tools. Such tools facilitate the use of some valuation methods and therefore facilitate the more rapid consideration of various alternatives.

6. Analysis of contractors' proposals

Other methods of valuation are the analysis of the proposals of the performers and the analysis necessary cost project. In cases where the project is awarded as a result of competition, it may be necessary for the project team to conduct additional cost estimates and determine the cost of individual deliverables and the final cost of the project as a whole.

7. Reserve analysis

Many evaluators include reserves (otherwise known as "contingency funds") in the cost of scheduled activities. This raises the problem of potential overestimation of the schedule operation cost estimate. A contingency reserve is a cost estimate used at the discretion of the project manager in the event that expected but not certain events occur. These events are called "known unknowns" and are part of the project scope and cost baselines.

8. Cost of quality

The cost of quality can also be used in the valuation of schedule activities.

Reliable real estate appraisal is a painstaking work of highly qualified specialists. In its course, on the instructions of the customer, an assessment of the market value of the object or rights to it is made. It is the appraiser who conducts the analysis and chooses an approach or a set of approaches to valuation that are acceptable in a particular situation. What is a comparative approach in real estate valuation? What are its methods, advantages and disadvantages? In which market does its application give the most accurate result? Let's talk about it today.

Estimation of the market value of real estate

The main feature by which objects are classified as immovable is their strong attachment to the ground. Real estate is plots, any buildings, structures, residential and non-residential premises, natural objects, etc.

The owner can use OH (real estate) both for personal needs and for profit. It can be leased or pledged, sold, donated, exchanged, bequeathed, etc. Therefore, sometimes it is simply necessary to know the real market value of OH at the current time.

The specialist performs this work using the approaches established by the state valuation standards.

In total, three approaches are used in the assessment:

  • Costly (methods of the cost approach in real estate valuation);
  • Comparative.

Each of these approaches has its own methodological basis. Let us analyze sequentially the comparative approach to valuation and its methods for determining the value of an object.

Comparative Approach (SP)

When an owner wants to start selling his property, he determines its initial value, without knowing it, using the joint venture. can be done on your own. The owner searches on specialized sites for objects similar to his own, compares their characteristics, the duration of the sale, and draws conclusions about the value for which the object can be sold in reality. This is the comparative approach.

The market value is calculated by comparing the prices of similar objects. An adequate seller understands that if there are two or more objects on the market that equally satisfy the needs of the buyer, setting a higher price is at least unreasonable.

Basic postulates

The joint venture is based on data on transactions actually carried out in the recent past with similar objects and the correlation of the property being valued with its similar counterparts.

The starting point for the appraiser's decision to use the SP is the current activity of the segment of the real estate market of which the subject of appraisal (PO) is a part.

Basic principles of the joint venture:

  • Supply and demand;
  • substitution;
  • Contribution.

Based on these principles, special evaluation methods have been developed to calculate the market value of software.

Methods

The comparative approach implies the use of 3 methods of real estate appraisal and the coordination of their results to determine the market value of the subject of appraisal.

Sales Benchmarking Method (SAP)

Value is determined by analyzing recent sales of properties comparable to those being valued, after making appropriate adjustments to value for differences between them.

Calculation algorithm:

  1. Finding information about recent sales of comparable properties in the relevant market segment;
  2. Analysis of the reliability of information;
  3. Adjustment of the value of comparable properties for pricing differences;
  4. Reconciliation of data by analogues and obtaining the value of the object (average value, median value, the most common value).

Reconciliation of matching results is one of the important points this method. Simple arithmetic averaging of the received data is not allowed. It is necessary to study each result analytically and draw a reasonable conclusion.

The final value of the value is a verified conclusion made by the appraiser based on an analysis of all available information available and his own professional experience.

SAP is ideal for home appraisal, i.e. a market segment in which a large number of transactions with similar objects are made.

A primitive example of the use of SAP in the evaluation of an apartment, given simply to understand the essence of the method.

Initial data of the object of assessment:

  • 2-room apartment;
  • dormitory area;
  • total area / living area / kitchen - 58/29/8 sq.m.;
  • layout type - undershirt;
  • 1st floor;
  • redecorating;
  • 9-storey brick house built in 1998;
  • 2 elevators (passenger and freight);
  • free legally and physically;
  • stop public transport- 3 minutes from the house;
  • availability of parking in the yard;
  • d / garden, school - within walking distance;
  • polyclinic - nearby;
  • supermarket in the house.

Found information on transactions with 5 similar objects sold over the past 2 months.

Note the differences between analogues in relation to the object of assessment:

  • Analogue 1 - 1,700,000 rubles. Lack of an elevator -300,000 rubles.
  • Analogue 2 - 1,900,000 rubles. An alternative is required -100,000 rubles.
  • Analogue 3 - 1,890,000 rubles. 6th floor -200,000 rubles.
  • Analogue 4 - 1,800,000 rubles. Areas 62/31/11 sq.m. -250 000 rub.
  • Analogue 5 - 1,980,000 rubles. Center - 250,000 rubles.

Calculate the value of the property being valued:

1,700,000 + 300,000 +100,000 + 200,000 - 250,000 - 250,000 = 1,800,000 rubles.

In fact, the calculation is of course much more complicated. In the example, not made market valuation factors, but was simply taken offhand.

Gross rent multiplier method (GRM)

The method is based on the hypothesis of a direct relationship between the selling price of an object and the potential rental income from renting it out. That is, the higher the potential rental income, the more expensive the object.

In the hypostasis of the unit of comparison, this method involves the use of BPM. It is equal to the ratio of the price of the sold object to the gross income from its use for commercial purposes.

Calculation algorithm:

  1. We determine the market rental income from the object for 12 months, i.e., we estimate how much it is realistic to rent it out, for example, for 300 thousand rubles. in year;
  2. We determine the BPM based on recent market transactions (the appraiser himself can calculate it based on recent transactions, but it is easier to use statistical data for the region, if available, let it be 20);
  3. Calculation of the value of the subject of appraisal by multiplying the market rental income from the object by BPM.

When applied to the data in our example, the cost of the object will be 6000 thousand rubles. (300 tr * 20).

The WRM method does not require additional corrections for differences in the characteristics of the object and analogues. This is a relative indicator in which such features are taken into account initially.

General capitalization method (CCR)

The NCR is applied to the entity's net operating income (NOI).

The NRR is the actual gross income (ARV) from which the annual operating expenses have been deducted. Operating expenses include all expenses without which the facility will not be able to function normally ( communal payments, maintenance, repairs, etc.).

GVA is calculated as the sum of potential gross income (GVA) and income from additional services, minus losses from lost profits.

PVH is the income that can be received when real estate is rented out without downtime. Depends on the size of the object and rental rate. Accordingly, if the object is idle, lost profit is formed.

The RCC is determined by the ratio of the NPC of the analogue object to its price and is used as a divisor to the NPC of the appraised object.

Calculation algorithm:

  1. Calculation of the NPC of the assessed object;
  2. Selection of analogues (from 3 objects or more), for which there is data from reliable sources on the actual sale price and the amount of the NPC;
  3. Amendments to increase the similarity of analogues with the subject of evaluation;
  4. Separate calculation of OKC for each analogue;
  5. Definition of the general OKK (arithmetic average on all analogs);
  6. Calculation of the market value as a quotient from the division of the NPC of the assessed object to the average OKC for selected analogues.

Consider an example.

An assessment of the market value of an object should be made, the NPV of which in the forecast period is 250,000 thousand rubles.

Suppose there is verified information about three analogues:

  • analogue 1: CHOD - 330,000 rubles, market value - 1,200,000 rubles;
  • analogue: CHOD - 360,000 rubles, market value - 1,250,000 rubles;
  • analogue 3: CHOD - 370,000 rubles, market value - 1,400,000 rubles.

Let's calculate the OCC for the subject of assessment:

(330 /1 200 + 360 /1 250 + 370 /1 400) : 3 = 0,276

Sale price - 1,278,000 rubles. (353,000 rubles * 0.276).

Analysis of results

When evaluating activities, it is important to be able to evaluate the results obtained using different SP methods. An experienced evaluator knows how much weight each method takes in evaluating a particular object.

If the property can be valued by all three methods (which is not always the case), a reconciliation stage will be required, during which the maximum probable price will be determined.

The market value is calculated by comparing the prices of similar objects.

Otherwise, a reasoned decision is given to refuse to use one or another assessment method.

Rejection of the comparative approach (SP)

JV is one of the most reliable and easy-to-apply approaches to determining the market value of real estate. The only, but the main disadvantage of this approach is the lack of a developed real estate market in the desired segment. In such conditions, the use of the joint venture will have to be abandoned. After all, you can only compare non-unique objects.