Analysis of enterprise risk management by example. Risk management on the example of olis-dent LLC
Course work
"Risk classification (on the exampleJSC "Stavropolenergosbyt")»
Completed:
Gabdulkhakova N.A.
Checked:
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INTRODUCTION .................................................. ................................................. ................................... 3
CHAPTER 1. THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF RISK CLASSIFICATION 5
1.1. The concept and essence of risk .............................................................. ................................................. .... 5
1.2 Classification of risk............................................................... ................................................. ............ eight
CHAPTER 2. RISK ANALYSIS IN JSC STAVROPOLENERGOSBYT .................................................. 15
2.1 Characteristics of the electricity and capacity market of the Russian Federation .............................................. .. fifteen
2.2 ESC risk analysis on the example of JSC "Stavropolenergosbyt" .............................................................. 19
CHAPTER 3. WAYS TO REDUCE RISKS IN JSC STAVROPOLENERGOSBYT 24
CONCLUSION................................................. ................................................. ................ 31
LIST OF USED LITERATURE .............................................................. ............ 33
INTRODUCTION
Relevance. Entrepreneurial activity is characterized by information asymmetry and market uncertainty. One of the ways to minimize the impact of an unpredictable external environment on the FCD of an enterprise is to manage its risks. This discipline is based on a comprehensive definition of risk as an economic category that is an integral aspect of any business. Its fundamental nature (since there are random elements not only in FCD, but also in any other sphere of a person’s life and his relationships with other people) determines the enduring relevance of studying the concept of risk, which is the beginning of immersion in the discipline of risk management.
The purpose of this work— consider the risks and their classification in OAO Stavropolenergosbyt.
For the purposes of this work, we chose next approach: first, we will offer a detailed definition of risk, expanded by an analysis of its inherent properties. At the same time, it should be emphasized that a humanitarian understanding of risk was taken, which was stated, among other things, within the framework of the discipline of financial management. In addition, in order to comply with the format of the work, only one version of it was studied.
Further (with the same restrictions) we will also consider the classification of risks according to Balabanov. In addition to a more detailed analysis of the types and properties of risk categories, one of its classifications is necessary as a theoretical apparatus for considering a particular enterprise and risks in its FCD (risk management as a discipline has an applied character, so it is advisable to study it on real examples).
As object of study OAO Stavropolenergosbyt, one of Russia's energy sales companies, was chosen. Power supply companies are essentially trading, but operate in a complex regulated market.
Subject— classification of risks in OAO Stavropolenergosbyt.
The analysis of this company using open data and the successful application of the developments from the previous sections of this course work will be a verification of the correctness of Balabanov's classification for managing real risks in one of the world's markets, as well as proof of successful immersion in the topic of this course work.
Research objectives:
- To study the concept and essence of risk.
- Consider risk classification.
- Carry out a risk analysis at OAO Stavropolenergosbyt.
- Suggest ways to reduce risks in OAO Stavropolenergosbyt.
Work structure: course work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and a list of references.
CHAPTER 1. THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF RISK CLASSIFICATION
1.1. The concept and essence of risk
Integral parts of entrepreneurial activity, as well as the activities of other subjects of the world economy, are the uncertainty and asymmetry of information. The concept that aggregates the positive, neutral and negative impact of these phenomena is risk. It is difficult to give a general definition of risk because of its global nature and applicability in different fields of knowledge. Various eminent mathematicians, economists and philosophers have given different interpretations of risk.
For the purposes of this work, we propose as a basic definition of Kuznetsov's dictionary and Efremova's explanatory dictionary: "Risk is a potential danger ... or the possibility of causing damage." It should be noted that the risk is not always realized in the form of a negative impact of internal and external forces for the enterprise. In the general sense, this concept has many different definitions that do not contradict each other, each of which gives an idea of the specific aspects of the general phenomenon. However, the most common definition of risk in foreign sources is formulated as follows: “Risk is a deviation from the planned result.” Subsequently, this interpretation was supplemented within the framework of financial management by a frequently encountered, but more reliable definition in relation to the activities of enterprises: “Risk is the probability of deviation actually received income from its expected value.
Thus, when risk is considered in economic, financial or managerial texts, it is mainly about the expectations of economic entities associated with the constant presence in their activities of non-guaranteed and not reliably predictable neutral-negative factors. In its economic sense, the risk is associated with the future, but it is in the future that it is not predicted with complete certainty. In this regard, it is methodologically correct to quantify risk only by quantifying past phenomena, while quantitative methods for measuring risk in the future are, by definition, evaluative.
The above definitions make it possible to single out the main features of risk. First, risk is singled out as one of the economic categories. This characteristic is reflected in the Civil Code of the Russian Federation in relation to entrepreneurial activity. According to the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, entrepreneurial activity is “an independent activity carried out at one’s own risk, aimed at systematically obtaining profit from the use of property, the sale of goods, the performance of work or the provision of services by persons registered in this capacity in the manner prescribed by law.” This means that the risk is manifested in the economic and financial activities of the enterprise and is associated with the formation of profit.
Secondly, the risk is clearly negative. Despite the fact that the quantitative value of the risk can be both negative and positive, in their financial and economic activities (FEA), companies adhere to a conservative approach and focus primarily on forecasting and minimizing the impact of negative factors. This approach is logical, because an incorrect assessment by an enterprise of one or more important events can lead to negative consequences of varying severity from lost profits to losses that can lead to bankruptcy. In particular, a mortgage bank may go bankrupt due to the fact that the risk of non-repayment of borrowed funds was not taken into account when issuing loans. This is exactly what happened during the 2007 US crisis, when many mortgage banks filed for bankruptcy. A classic example of such a company is Lehman Brothers, a former powerful player in the credit default swap market.
The third characteristic is the uncertainty in the occurrence of consequences. In this regard, it is advisable to quote the statement of F. Bacon: “who is looking for only certain profits is unlikely to become very rich; and he who invests all his property in risky enterprises often goes bankrupt and falls into poverty; therefore, it is necessary to combine risk with known security in case of losses. Enterprises are not just recipients of risk. First of all, different sectors of the world economy have their own characteristics, including in terms of their inherent risks. In addition, companies often have to resort to risky measures or practices to increase profitability. In a number of cases, with a conservative low-income strategy, the company's marginality is too low for continuous operation in today's rapidly changing world. At the same time, the greater the risk in the Company's activities, the more attention it should pay to managing it.
Fourth, in a general sense, a random variable for a company is not only the strength of the impact of the risk, but also its implementation as a whole. If the risk does not materialize, its impact is zero. Thus, we can talk about the discreteness of the occurrence of risk cases in FCD. In addition, it should be emphasized that it is often within the power of an enterprise to use the available information, as well as the competencies of its key employees, to influence the likelihood and strength of risk realization.
Thus, for the purposes of this work, we propose the following definition of risk: “Risk in FCD is the probability of occurrence in the future (both in the short and long term) of negative (internal and external) events for the company, leading to negative consequences for it expressed quantitatively primarily in the loss of total income. The first step in risk management is the analysis of already realized risks, the initial stage of which is their classification according to firm-relevant criteria for subsequent use in the work of decision makers.
1.2 Risk classification
Risk classification is understood as its distribution into certain groups according to specific characteristics in order to achieve the set goals. The main view of this classification according to Balabanov's textbook is shown in Figure 1.1 in Appendix 1.
One of the most important is the classification of risks according to the nature of their impact. They can be divided according to this classification into pure and speculative.
The hallmark of pure risks is that their consequence is zero or (most often) a negative outcome. The emergence of pure risk is mainly due to objective events such as accidents, natural disasters, etc.
In the group of pure risk, the following 5 types are distinguished:
natural risks, which include risks arising from destructive natural phenomena. These include floods and mudflows, forest and city fires, tornadoes and hurricanes, tsunamis and others.
2) environmental risks that arise due to air pollution and destruction of ecosystems (for example, flooding of territories during the construction of hydroelectric power stations).
3) political risks caused by the unstable political situation in the country and the world or the ineffectiveness of the actions of government officials and bodies. In turn, political risks can be divided into:
Unwanted changes in tax legislation;
The inability to carry out important or necessary operations for the FCD due to the aggravated political situation both within the country and abroad. Such phenomena include hostilities, revolutions, confiscations of goods and enterprises, the imposition of an embargo, etc. This type of risk is now especially important in the context of sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation by a number of countries.
Introduction of deferrals on external payments due to emergency circumstances - wars, strikes, etc.;
Full or partial restriction of the conversion of the country's currency into the payment currency. In this case, the obligation to the exporter or group of exporters may be repaid in national currency (and possibly at a fixed rate that does not suit the recipients), the circulation of which is significantly limited.
4) transport risks associated with the implementation of various types of transportation: rail, sea, air, pipeline, etc.
5) commercial risks that carry the risk of losses due to activities in the field of finance and economics. They are divided into 3 types: property, production and trade.
Property risks are related to the fact that an entrepreneur may incur losses due to the negligence of employees, theft, overstrain of the technological base and technical capacities, etc.
Production risks - risks arising from the possibility of an unplanned stoppage of production as a result of various factors, ranging from damage or deterioration of fixed assets and inventories (such as raw materials, machinery, transport units, semi-finished products, finished goods for sale, etc. .) and ending with forced, imposed by state policy or simply unsuccessful introduction of technologies and equipment into production.
Trading risks are directly related to interaction with counterparties. The goods may be delivered late or not delivered at all, the buyer may not pay for the goods immediately in order to impose a favorable delay or simply lack of working capital.
Unlike pure risks, speculative risks can bring an entrepreneur both positive and negative returns. The reasons for their occurrence are different and are related to the peculiarities of the functioning of the real and stock markets. These include changes in the exchange rate, conditions and structure of investments, market conditions, etc.
The group of speculative risks includes all types of financial risks, which, in turn, are an integral part of commercial risks.
Financial risks are associated with the probability of loss of financial resources and are divided into:
1) risks associated with the purchasing power of money;
2) investment risks.
The first type of speculative risks includes four categories: inflationary, deflationary and currency risks, as well as liquidity risks.
Liquidity risks are associated with possible losses in the sale of securities or other goods due to changes in their quality and use value. In many ways, their implementation is connected with the dependence of exchanges on the expectations of players, including portfolio and speculative ones. In many ways, the actions of stock market players are associated with a momentary (sometimes panicky) reaction to a variety of world events, including wars and revolutions (including the events of the so-called "Arab Spring"), man-made disasters (for example, at the nuclear power plant in Fukushima ) and others.
In order to define inflationary and deflationary risk, we first need to define basic definitions of inflation and deflation.
Inflation means a decrease in the value of money and, consequently, an increase in prices. In turn, the process, the reverse of inflation (ie, deflation), is expressed in a decrease in prices and an increase in the purchasing power of the national currency.
Thus, inflationary risk is the risk that, as inflation rises, income in monetary terms will depreciate in terms of its real purchasing power at a faster rate than its growth in national currency. Under conditions of inflationary risk, the entrepreneur bears real losses.
Deflationary risk is the risk that, with the growth of deflationary processes, the price level decreases, business conditions in the economy worsen, and the amount of income decreases.
The third type of this risk - currency risk - is a threat of currency losses resulting from international transactions, credit transactions, currency transactions, as well as changes in the exchange rate of one foreign currency against another (for example, the euro against the dollar).
The second type of speculative risk is investment risk. It includes several subtypes:
the risk of lost profits, which occurs in the form of lost profits, that is, indirect financial damage. The reason is the failure to perform any event or action. In particular, insurance, investment, hedging, etc.
the risk of lower returns.
The risk of a decrease in profitability may arise as a result of a decrease in interest and dividends on loans, deposits, portfolio investments.
Portfolio investments are associated with the formation of an investment portfolio and with the acquisition of securities and other assets. The term "portfolio" comes from the Italian word "portofoglio", which means a set of securities that are in the hands of an investor.
In the risks of decreasing profitability, it is necessary to single out: interest and credit risks.
Interest risks are associated with possible losses by various organizations (selling companies, credit institutions, investment institutions, commercial banks) as a result of an increase in interest rates paid by them on attracted funds over rates on loans granted. They also include the threat of losses that investors may incur as a result of changes in market interest rates on bonds, dividends on shares, certificates and other securities.
An increase in the market rate of interest leads to a decrease in the market value of securities, especially bonds with a fixed interest rate. With an increase in the interest rate, a massive dumping of securities issued at lower fixed interest rates and under the terms of the issue, early accepted back by the issuer, may also begin. The interest rate risk is borne by the person issuing medium-term and long-term fixed-interest securities in circulation at the current decrease in the average market interest in comparison with the fixed level. In other words, the issuer could raise funds from the market at a lower interest rate. The investor could receive an increase in income due to an increase in interest, but cannot receive his funds invested on the above conditions.
This type of risk, with the rapid growth of interest rates in the context of inflation, is also important for short-term securities.
Credit risk arises as a result of the risk of non-payment by the debtor of the debt and the corresponding interest due to the creditor. In addition to credit risk, it is worth including the risk of such an event in which the one who issued debt securities, that is, the issuer, will not be able to pay the amount of the debt or interest on the loan.
Credit risk can also be a direct financial loss option.
Risk of direct financial losses.
The risk of direct financial losses includes 4 types. These include: stock risk, selective risk, bankruptcy risk, and credit risk.
Exchange risks represent the probable losses from transactions on the exchange. These risks include the risk of non-payment on commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of commission fees of a brokerage firm, etc.
Selective risks (derived from the Latin word selectio - choice, selection) is a subjective risk. It is expressed in the wrong investment of capital, the wrong choice of the type of securities for investment in relation to other types of securities in the process of forming the formation of an investment portfolio.
The risk of bankruptcy, in turn, is a danger as a result of an incorrect choice of types of investment sources, a complete loss of equity, and in addition to this, the entrepreneur may not be able to pay the amount of money on his obligations to other institutions (for example, to commercial banks or private investors) .
There are many different approaches to risk analysis. For example, the criterion for identifying certain types of risk is the type of funds used by the enterprise. In accordance with this criterion, the risk is divided into production and financial risks.
Thus, there are many ways to classify risk in FCD, but without the practical application of this knowledge, it is difficult to understand their meaning. An example of possible and realized risks in a particular industry will be presented in the next chapter.
CHAPTER 2. RISK ANALYSIS IN JSC STAVROPOLENERGOSBYT
2.1 Characteristics of the Russian electricity and capacity market
From the point of view of an energy retail company (ESC) operating in Russia, the electricity and capacity market looks like this. There are generating companies that own power plants. Separate legal entities are grid companies that own the distribution grids of the country (a natural monopoly of the Rosseti holding has been established in this market). In addition, there are groups of companies that generate electricity for their own needs. Generating companies supply electricity to end consumers directly, through the WECM (Wholesale Electricity and Capacity Market) or through contracts with ESCs. The function of the ESC is the purchase of electricity at the WECM or from generators and their sale to consumers. They own neither power plants nor distribution networks. The actual supply is carried out through the infrastructure of "Rosseti", which also compensate energy sales companies for losses in their networks (in fact, they buy them out). ESCs are not characterized by production risk (they deal with already generated energy) and currency risk (they operate in clearly defined regions within the Russian Federation, buy energy for rubles and attract loans in rubles).
The entire production chain is tightly regulated by the state, although the current legislation in the electric power industry is imperfect and has a lot of flaws. In relation to ESC, the following factors are important:
Changes that generators and grid companies are undergoing. Processes such as the dissolution of Inter RAO UES, the creation of a wholesale market with liberalized prices, and others affect the level of prices at which generators and Rosseti will be ready to provide their services.
ESCOs can obtain the status of a supplier of last resort (SO) in a certain region or regions. The economic benefit from this is ambiguous: the status of a GP means an obligation to conclude supply contracts with all consumers in the served regions (which is not always beneficial for the company, since they may turn out to be persistent non-payers), to comply with a number of criteria approved by regulators (which can be burdensome in case of poor financial condition companies) and sell energy at highly regulated prices by the state. At the same time, in a number of cases, the status of a SOE turns out to be beneficial for the company. For example, if its competitor in the region loses its status as a SOE, consumers that have contracts with it can transfer to serve the remaining SOEs.
An additional important point is the regulation of ESC relations with problem customers, the presence of which is due to consumers paying for energy after receiving it. The legal aspects of their cooperation are constantly reviewed by the state.
The above directions of regulation of energy retail companies indicate the presence of significant political risk. In particular, Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 877 of 04.11.2011 led to a significant reduction in the sales allowance. From 01.12.2011, energy retailers were prohibited from including provisions in energy supply contracts on the need to compensate for payment for deviations from contractual consumption volumes (except for consumers who carry out hourly planning and accounting). As a result, ESCs lost their main source of income - fines for shortfalls and overruns of the declared volumes of electricity.
Another realization of political risk was the Decree of the Government No. 442 of the Russian Federation dated 04.05.2012. The differentiation of prices by the number of hours of use of the declared capacity (indicator HCHIM) was cancelled. Until 04/01/2012, all consumers were ranked depending on the uniformity of energy consumption. The less evenly the energy consumption was distributed over the hours in the day, the higher the price for the consumer. After 04/01/2012, prices for consumers were equalized, which led to their reduction for small-scale consumers (small and medium-sized businesses, budget consumers). This ruling further reduced the profitability of ESCs. However, after assessing the impact of this draft law, the state issued FTS Order No. 703 dated 10/30/2012, which changed the methodology for calculating the sales premium for SOEs for consumers other than the population and equated to it. Differentiation was established according to the maximum power of receiving devices from consumers: the more powerful the devices, the greater the sales margin. Thus, the state has made it cheaper for SOEs to serve large consumers, improving their profitability and increasing competitiveness compared to other ESCs.
In addition to the constant risk of a change in government policy, an important risk for ESCs is trade risk. It arises in relations with consumers and network companies. Traditionally, problem consumers are the population and housing and communal services, as well as management companies. If industrial consumers are generally characterized by good payment discipline, then these categories of ESC clients historically only increase their debt on a national scale. Thus, in January 2015, the collection of consumer funds due to their above categories was only 77% (which is a rather low level). So far, legislative steps are being taken for ESCs, such as the possibility of not serving further customers with a significant delay. Relations with network companies are additionally aggravated by the fact that in recent years they have a tendency to lobby for a scheme that is unprofitable for ESCs to compensate for losses in networks. ESCs are satisfied with the mechanism in which compensation is carried out immediately upon delivery, while the structures of Rosseti want to work using the deferred mechanism. According to a scenario that suits ESCs, they order electricity in an increased volume (taking into account the supply needed by consumers and losses in the networks), but at the same time, immediately after shipment, they sign reconciliation acts with grid companies, on the basis of which the final payment is made adjusted for loss compensation. The lobbied scenario involves overcharging grid companies for services with subsequent periodic compensation.
ESC is also characterized by property risk. These companies can be launched without significant capital investments (unlike generating or grid companies). Because of this, ESCs are much more prone to mercenary manipulations by their management, largely due to the imperfection of the legislation (many of the loopholes for unscrupulous management were closed only in 2012). For example, Donenergosbyt and Rostovenergo suffered greatly due to the withdrawal of capital by shareholders, which in 2009 put them on the verge of bankruptcy. These companies survived only because of the reorganization carried out after their purchase by the new owner (TNS-Energo holding). Due to the susceptibility of ESCs to this type of fraud, they are more wary of servicing banks, which increases credit risk. ESCs are constantly in need of short-term loans to replenish their working capital (as well as other trading companies), but banks can refuse them borrowed funds, and in case of financial difficulties - restructuring the loans received. This happened in 2009 with Energostrim, which also underwent a withdrawal and eventually went through bankruptcy proceedings: none of the servicing banks met the company in its requests for restructuring and installment plans against the backdrop of scandals related to other ESCs.
Thus, the activities of ESCs are associated with significant political and trade, as well as property risks. These companies exist in an environment of ever-changing legislation that directly affects their profitability. They have significant difficulties in settlements with counterparties, which the state is unlikely to be able to eliminate in the short term. Finally, they are subject to manipulation by unscrupulous management, which complicates relations with banks and end users. Below we will consider the implementation of these main risk categories for ESCs in relation to a particular company.
2.2 ESC risk analysis on the example of JSC Stavropolenergosbyt
OAO Stavropolenergosbyt (founded on April 1, 2005; actual and legal address - Essentuki, Bolshevistskaya St., 59a) is the largest power supply company in the Stavropol Territory with a current market share of about 45% in this region. The company serves its customers in 90% of the territory of the region and since 2006 has the status of a supplier of last resort. As of December 31, 2013, the client base of SES was 18,380 legal entities. persons and 426,639 individuals. persons.
In its current form, the Company has actually been operating since the beginning of 2002 (when all divisions of the Stavropol Energosbyt were merged into a branch of OAO Stavropolenergo). In 2005, in accordance with the new legislation, the unbundling of the generating and energy sales lines of Stavropolenergo was carried out, which led to the organization of OAO Stavropolenergosbyt.
The Company has a history of active claims and lawsuits, which is carried out against them by the grid company IDGC of the North Caucasus. Both parties accuse each other of failing to fulfill obligations to each other, however, after the change in the management of the grid company in 2013, the volume of its claims against Stavropolenergosbyt has sharply decreased.
OAO Stavropolenergosbyt operates within the framework of the Stavropol energy system. According to the operational data of the North Caucasus Regional Dispatch Office, in 2014 electricity consumption in this energy system amounted to 9599 million kWh (+1.5% compared to 2013). At the same time, its power plants generated 18,672.1 million kWh of electricity (+16.4% compared to 2013). The historical redundancy of generation in the Stavropol energy system is associated with the presence of large generation facilities in it: Stavropolskaya GRES and Nevinnomysskaya GRES.
According to the rating of payment discipline of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in the retail electricity market of the non-profit partnership "Market Council" (http://www.ais.np-sr.ru/ratings/R410/) based on the results of January-December 2013 and January-December 2014 The Stavropol Territory took 10th place out of 41. This stable position in the ranking indicates a consistently favorable consumer environment in the region.
In the Stavropol Territory, the main share of electricity supplies (over 2/3) is accounted for by guaranteeing suppliers, the largest of which is SES, which is far ahead of competitors (the largest of which is SUE IC Stavropolkommunelectro with a share of ~ 11%) .
Below is the dynamics of SES productive output by main categories in the period 12m2012-9m2014:
Table 2.1 Dynamics of productive supply at Stavropolenergosbyt in full 2012, 2013 and the first three quarters of 2013, 2014
It should be emphasized that compensation for losses occupies a significant share in the company's revenue. It operates in a region with large amounts of energy generated but outdated and inefficient networks. Because of this, relations with IDGC of the North Caucasus are complicated, since this company needs to compensate for significant amounts of ESCs in the region.
Tariffs for "SES" are set by the Regional Tariff Commission of the Stavropol Territory (hereinafter - RTK SK). This executive body is the result of reforming the REC of the Stavropol Territory. It was approved by Decree of the Government of the Stavropol Territory No. 495-p dated 12/19/2011 as a successor to the REC.
The company is subject to the general pricing rules in the country's electricity market:
For the population and consumers equated to them, regulated tariffs are established, established by the RTK SK together with a sales allowance
For industrial consumers on the retail market, free competitive prices are provided, reflecting the cost of electricity on the wholesale market and limited by information published monthly by JSC ATS on weighted average unregulated prices on the wholesale market for the last month. ATS prices take into account state-regulated tariffs for electricity transmission services, operational dispatch management services, services of ATS JSC, sales allowance.
The population, equivalent consumers and compensation for losses together account for about half of the revenue, and other consumers account for the remaining half. A strong increase in the allowance from the 2nd half. 2013 was due to the regulator halving the required gross revenue of SES (which is a SOE) in 2012, due to which the sales mark-up was incorrectly calculated. Thus, growth in this period is of a recovery nature (the Company managed to defend its position in court in H1 2013). At the same time, SES did not receive any compensation for the damage received. This situation is a vivid example of the realization of political risk: the company has suffered from poor-quality regulation of its activities. At the same time, in its annual report, SES claims that the region's tariff regulation authorities are implementing a policy of curbing tariff growth due to low rates of economic growth in the region.
However, in recent years, the company's sales have been growing due to the annual increase in tariffs for consumers. In 2012 they amounted to 10.2 billion rubles, in 2013 - 11.3 billion rubles. (+10.8% compared to 2012), and for 9m2014 - 9 billion rubles. At the same time, net profit is at a very low level (less than 1%, in 2012 the company received a net loss) due to the elimination of the consequences of an underestimated sales margin. It should be noted that in order to avoid a net loss in 2013, SES sold promissory notes of Business-Invest Serving Company LLC to a friendly structure, Ultraform Project. This transaction can be considered suspicious, since the management of SES has a long-term relationship with the management of the buyer of bills, as well as the practice in the market to use bills as a surrogate for bank loans. The date and reason for the purchase of the bills is unknown.
In addition, SES has had significant interest expenses on loans since 2012. At the same time, the company's loan portfolio is much larger than necessary. The company has no significant cash gaps. However, it has a large loan portfolio, including as of September 30, 2014 - in the amount of 1.5 billion rubles. (more than half of liabilities) and financial investments of comparable size (1.4 billion rubles as of 9m2014).
The company's financial investments are shares of its Group companies (now SES is part of the Independent Energy Retail Company holding) and shares of Essentuki City Electric Networks OJSC. The current general director of SES (Mr. Ostapchenko) was previously the general director of this company. The meaning of its acquisition is not disclosed and is suspicious.
The credit history presented in the company's annual report confirms the nature of its loan portfolio. Until 2012, she mainly used small short-term loans to replenish working capital. In 2012, she abandoned them in favor of large non-revolving loans, which she repays by the end of their term and takes again for similar amounts. The whole situation around Essentuki City Power Grids can be attributed to property risks (due to the incomprehensibility of the management strategy), as well as investment or selective risks (from the company's point of view, risky acquisition of expensive shares may be unprofitable).
As part of the work done, it was possible to identify several categories of risk inherent in SES. The company is exposed to trading risks associated with IDGC of the North Caucasus (the relations of the companies are further complicated by the poor quality of networks in the region, which increases losses recoverable). She was hit hard by the low sales markup. Finally, the management of SES sells strange bills and attracts large loans that the company does not need to work. Taking into account the use of only open sources, the understanding of these aspects of the SES activity can be assessed as successful for the purposes of this course work.
CHAPTER 3. WAYS TO REDUCE RISKS IN JSC STAVROPOLENERGOSBYT
Possible negative factors that may affect the sale of the issuer's products:
Strengthening the advantages of competitors (price, quality, sales system);
A sharp increase in the cost of production;
Deterioration of the economic situation in the product sales market and a corresponding decrease in effective demand from consumers.
In order to reduce such influence, the issuer carries out activities in the direction of improving the quality of products at a constant cost, changing the system for marketing products (presence of deferrals of payments to the largest buyers).
Investment risks
Acquisition of the issuer's issued equity securities is associated with a number of risks, in particular: - industry risks; - country and regional risks; - financial risks; - legal risks; - risks associated with the issuer's activities. one of the important elements of corporate governance and internal control, pursues a conservative policy in the field of risk management, while using both its own experience and the experience of other companies. The issuer's risk management policy focuses on all categories of significant risks and is a combination of qualitative objectives and descriptions of the company's market strategy, as well as quantitative benchmarks in relation to target volumes of transactions and a possible measure of risk exposure. As part of its risk management policy, the issuer identifies, evaluates, controls and prevents threats and opportunities in order to reduce the likelihood and potential consequences for its activities. The main methods of risk management used by the issuer: rejection of risky investments; rejection of unreliable partners and clients; financial planning; observance and implementation of requirements of standards; coordination and consistency of management programs and processes, compliance with the requirements of the current legislation that contribute to the development of the issuer.
The Company's risk management activities are aimed at:
Improving operational efficiency through the implementation of programs to reduce production costs and save money;
Carrying out a balanced financial policy; - constant analysis of the electricity market;
Carrying out regular audits as part of the functioning of the internal control system. Continuous improvement of the internal control system.
Industry risks
The Issuer operates at regulated and non-regulated prices. State regulation of prices (tariffs) for electric energy in the Russian market is carried out in accordance with Federal Laws No. 147-FZ of 17.08.1995. "On natural monopolies" and No. 41-FZ of 14.04.1995. "On State Regulation of Tariffs for Electricity and Heat in the Russian Federation" and some other documents of the Government of the Russian Federation. The regulation of prices (tariffs) for products (services) of natural monopolies in the fuel and energy complex is entrusted to the Federal Tariff Service (FTS) (Formerly the Federal Energy Commission (FEC)).
In accordance with the current procedure, the following are subject to regulation:
Tariffs for electricity (capacity) on the federal (all-Russian) wholesale electricity (capacity) market (FOREM);
Tariffs for electricity in the retail market;
Maximum fees for services for the transmission of electrical energy (capacity) through the networks of organizations included in the register of natural monopolies;
Tariffs for end consumers of electric energy in the retail market.
For the issuer, there is a risk associated with the possibility of freezing or directive reduction of tariffs, or approval of tariffs below an economically justified level.
Possible impact of negative changes:
deterioration of the financial and economic condition of the issuer.
Issuer's actions to mitigate these risks:
Improving operational efficiency by implementing programs to reduce production costs;
Carrying out work on the conclusion of long-term contracts for electricity supply;
Expansion of sales markets in order to diversify the sales structure;
Carrying out a balanced financial policy;
Strengthening work with state legislative and executive authorities.
The Issuer does not plan to carry out significant activities in the foreign market.
Regional risks
The Issuer is registered as a legal entity and taxpayer in the city of Pyatigorsk, Stavropol Territory. The Issuer operates in the Stavropol Territory. The Company operates in a region that is politically and economically stable, where there is practically no risk of military conflicts and states of emergency. However, there is a risk of terrorist attacks, to minimize which all measures are taken to ensure security at the enterprise. The social situation on the territory of the Company's activities is characterized as calm, the absence of pronounced interethnic conflicts, religious extremism allows carrying out economic activities with minimal socio-political risks.
In the event of a negative change in the situation in the regions, including an increase in the tax burden or a deterioration in the investment climate as a whole, the issuer plans to take appropriate measures to minimize production and sales costs.
The risks associated with the geographical features of the region, including the increased risk of natural disasters, the possible termination of transport communications due to remoteness and/or inaccessibility, do not have a significant impact on the issuer's activities, since the issuer's region of activity is little exposed to such risks.
Financial risks
a) Currency risks. Given that the main share of the Company's revenue comes in rubles, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations at the moment on the Company's activities is not significant.
b) Interest rate risk. Due to the limited funds of banks for issuing loans to legal entities, despite the reduction in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to 8.75% per annum, interest rates on loans remain at the level of 16-20% for long-term loans, and at the level of 10-12% on short-term loans.
c) The risk of inflation. The probability of occurrence of this type of risk exists, but is predictable, and can be taken into account in the next period of electricity price regulation. As the overall economic situation in Russia improves, this risk will gradually decrease.
d) Risks of refusal or inability of consumers to fulfill payment obligations. The risks of this group are high, first of all, because a significant share of electricity sold by the Company falls on insufficiently solvent wholesale enterprises - resellers (Urban Electric Grids). The Company does not supply on a deferred basis.
Legal risks
As of December 31, 2009, there were no legal risks affecting the Company's activities. Also, there are no legal risks associated with the Company's activities in connection with changes in currency regulation, because The Company does not enter into transactions with payment in foreign currency. Legal risks, in particular, those associated with ambiguous interpretations of legislative norms, may lead to incorrect calculation and payment of taxes.
To reduce them, the issuer's accounting department is constantly working on improving the methodology for calculating the tax base for various taxes and monitoring their compliance with current legislation. In the event that changes are made to the current procedure and conditions of taxation, the issuer plans its financial and economic activities taking into account these changes. All transactions related to support of the issuer's activities undergo mandatory legal due diligence and legal assessment. The adopted normative acts in the field of customs regulation and duties do not entail significant risks for the issuer, since the issuer does not carry out activities for the export (import) of goods (works, services). A change in judicial practice cannot significantly affect the activity of the issuer, since the issuer adheres to the position of resolving all disputes that arise in the pre-trial (claim) procedure, and in case of going to court, it takes into account the newly established judicial practice. These processes will not have a significant impact on the legal risks and financial position of the issuer, since the Company timely monitors judicial practice and, if existing trends are identified, measures are taken to build relationships with counterparties and government agencies, taking into account these circumstances.
The Company organizes systematic work to protect its rights and legitimate interests using all legal mechanisms. When the facts of legislative initiatives are revealed, the probability of approval of which is assessed as high, the Company's management takes actions to build relations with counterparties, taking into account the possible entry into force of the adopted regulations.
The main factors influencing the activities of JSC "Stavropolenergosbyt" are:
Correctness of regulation of tariffs by the RTC of the Stavropol Territory and the likelihood of OAO "Stavropolenergosbyt" losing income;
The risk of an increase in the Company's expenses when operating in the wholesale market under free bilateral agreements.
The methods used by JSC "Stavropolenergosbyt" to reduce the negative effect of these factors and improve performance are:
Involvement of independent experts at the stage of tariff regulation for the next planning period, to assess the economic feasibility of the expenses declared by the Company, which form the sales margin of the Guaranteed Supplier;
Consideration of disagreements with the RTK SK in the FTS of Russia;
Efficient work in the wholesale electricity market.
An important factor is the reduction of consumer non-payments. The main method of achieving the set task is effective control over the receipt of payment, timely identification of non-payers and the use of all methods of influence on this category of consumers provided for by the current legislation in relation to these non-payers.
CONCLUSION
In the course of this work, the definition of risk as an integral aspect of the FCD of any enterprise was considered. An analysis of a number of sources that consider risk allows us to conclude that this concept is complex. In this regard, for the purposes of this work, the risk was considered through the basic definition (“Risk is the probability of deviation of actually received income from its expected value”), which was supplemented after considering its main characteristics: “Risk in FCD is the probability of occurrence in the future (both in the short and long term) negative (internal and external) events for the firm, leading to negative consequences for it, expressed quantitatively primarily in the loss of total income.
As part of this course work, work was also done to analyze the risk classification in FCD according to Balabanov. According to it, risks are divided into pure (associated with objective events and leading in almost all cases to negative consequences for the company) and speculative (arising due to the volatile nature of the stock market and characterized by the presence of both negative and positive possible impact on the company's FCD). Understanding the types of possible risks entrepreneurs face is essential to effectively manage them. Despite the many possible classifications, only the Balabanov model was chosen for the purposes of this work: this limitation is set both by the scale of the work and by the need to choose a theoretical apparatus for risk analysis in the FCD of a particular legal entity.
To consider the implementation of risks according to Balabanov in practice, the power supply company JSC Stavropolenergosbyt was taken. This company is the leading guaranteed supplier of electricity and capacity, as well as heat in the Stavropol Territory. The profile of this business corresponds to the specifics of a trading enterprise, but is burdened with significant political, commercial, property and investment risks. Despite the possibility of using only open sources, the study of available information allows us to conclude that the business of Stavropolenergosbyt is quite risky, even taking into account the efficiency of its business processes.
LIST OF USED LITERATURE
Normative acts of Russian legislation:
1. Civil Code of the Russian Federation, article 2, clause 1 of November 30, 1994 N 51-FZ (current version of December 31, 2014).
- Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 877 dated November 4, 2011 No. 877 (as amended on October 22, 2012) "On Amendments to Certain Acts of the Government of the Russian Federation in order to improve relations between suppliers and consumers of electrical energy in the retail market"
- Order of the Federal Tariff Service No. 703 of October 30, 2012 "On Approval of Guidelines for Calculating Sales Margins of Last Resort Suppliers and the Size of Return on Sales of Last Resort Suppliers" (current version)
Monographs, textbooks, teaching aids:
- Balabanov I.T. Risk management. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1996.
- Ivanov A.A., Oleinikov S.Ya., Bocharov S.A. RISK MANAGEMENT. Training and metodology complex. - M.: Ed. center EAOI, 2008.
- Innovation management. Textbook: - Moscow, Yurayt, 2014 - 528 p.
- Management. Short course: - St. Petersburg, Okay-book, 2015 - 128 p.
- Organization of entrepreneurial activity. Theory and practice. Textbook: E. E. Kuzmina, L. P. Kuzmina - St. Petersburg, Yurayt, 2014 - 508 p.
- Fundamentals of risk management. Textbook: M. Krui, D. Galay, R. Mark - Moscow, Yurayt, 2015 - 390 p.
- Pinegina M.V. Financial management in examples and tasks Training module second edition, 2014
- Risk management. Textbook: V. N. Vyatkin, V. A. Gamza, F. V. Maevsky - St. Petersburg, Yurayt, 2015 - 354 p.
- The financial environment of entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial risks: N. A. Kazakova - Moscow, Infra-M, 2012 - 208 p.
- Financial risks: M. L. Krichevsky - Moscow, KnoRus, 2013 - 248 p.
Literature in foreign languages:
14. Sheeba Kapil, Financial Management, Pearson Education India, 2010
15.DB "SPARK-Interfax": http://spark-interfax.ru/
16. Reporting and annual reports of JSC "Stavropolenergosbyt": http://staves.ru/stocks/otchet/
Work description
Risk analysis - procedures for identifying risk factors and assessing their significance, in essence, an analysis of the likelihood that certain undesirable events will occur and adversely affect the achievement of project objectives. Risk analysis includes risk assessment and methods for reducing risks or reducing the adverse effects associated with them.
Introduction
1 Brief description of Comfort LLC
2 Calculation and analysis of risks LLC "Comfort"
3 Measures to reduce risks and their significance for Comfort LLC
Conclusion
Bibliography
Files: 1 file
1. Introduction
An analysis of the economic literature on the problem of risk as an economic category has shown the existence of various approaches and opinions. This set is due, firstly, to the specifics of the problem itself, its relative underdevelopment and versatility, and secondly, to the unpredictability and variety of factors influencing the activities of subjects. The content of the term "risk" is determined by the tasks of the area where it is used. The definition of this concept also changes over time, speaking of the first definition of risk in economics, they usually refer to F. Knight (1921), who proposed to separate risk and uncertainty.
Initially, the study of the problem of risk was carried out mainly in limited areas of human activity within certain sections of mathematics, statistics, psychology, medicine, and some economic disciplines. At present, the problem of analyzing any particular type of risk is becoming the subject of interdisciplinary research and goes beyond the boundaries of a particular science.
The economic downturn in Russia has led to a decrease in interest in the study of the category of economic risk associated with the financial and economic activities of enterprises, deepening the lack of developments of this kind. Which is especially keenly felt during the exit from the crisis and the increased need for risk management.
Among the researchers of this problem there is no single point of view regarding the definition of this term. As an economic category, risk characterizes various aspects of economic relations that arise in the process of functioning of the analyzed object and can lead to any losses.
Often, the risk of making a decision in the production and financial activities of enterprises is understood as the probability of a discrepancy between the actually obtained results of the implemented decision and the goals set.
Kreinina M.S. proposes the definition of risk as "a possible danger of losses arising from the specifics of certain natural phenomena and human activities." Buyanov V.P. emphasizes that risk is a perceived danger.
Risk is also defined as "the level of variability (variability) of return on investment. The higher the level of volatility (fluctuations in dividends, stock prices, etc.), the higher the risk."
However, most often the concept of "risk" is defined as "danger, the possibility of loss or damage", which corresponds to the classical theory of risk.
Currently, the risk is characterized as a potential, numerically measurable possibility of adverse
situations and related consequences in the form of: losses, damages, losses, for example - expected profit, income or property, cash and due to uncertainty, that is, with an accidental change in the conditions of economic activity, unfavorable, including force majeure, circumstances, a general drop in prices in the market; the possibility of obtaining an unpredictable result depending on the economic decision or action taken. The probability of risks is the probability that as a result of making a decision there will be losses for the enterprise, that is, the probability of an undesirable outcome. Probability means the possibility of obtaining a certain result.
Project risks are a set of risks that threaten the implementation of an investment project or can reduce its effectiveness (commercial, economic, budgetary, social, etc.).
Types of investment risks are diverse. For example, one of the possible classifications:
1) By spheres of manifestation:
economic,
political,
social,
ecological,
other types.
2) By forms of investment:
real investment,
financial investment,
3) According to the sources of occurrence:
Systematic (or market).
Non-systematic (or specific).
Some sources also highlight such risks as:
the risk associated with the industry of production - investing in the production of consumer goods is on average less risky than in the production of, say, equipment; managerial risk, i.e. related to the quality of the management team in the enterprise; time risk (the longer the period of investing money in the enterprise, the greater the risk); commercial risk (associated with the development indicators of the enterprise and the period of its existence).
Risk analysis - procedures for identifying risk factors and assessing them
significance, in essence, an analysis of the likelihood that certain
undesirable events and adversely affect the achievement of project objectives.
Risk analysis includes risk assessment and methods for reducing risks or reducing the adverse effects associated with them.
At the first stage, the relevant factors are identified and their significance is assessed. The purpose of risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary data to make decisions about the advisability of participating in the project and develop measures to protect against possible financial losses.
Risk analysis can be divided into two complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis aims to identify (identify) factors, areas and types of risks. Quantitative risk analysis should make it possible to numerically determine the size of individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole.
Risk assessment is a quantitative or qualitative determination of the magnitude (degree) of risks. It is necessary to distinguish between qualitative and quantitative assessment of entrepreneurial risks.
Qualitative assessment can be relatively simple, its main task is to identify possible types of risks, as well as factors that affect the level of risks when performing a certain type of activity.
Quantitative risk assessment is determined through:
a) the probability that the result obtained will be less than the required value (planned, planned, predicted);
b) the product of the expected damage by the probability that this damage will occur.
2 Brief description of the company "Comfort" LLC
Comfort Limited Liability Company is a furniture company producing cabinet furniture and office chairs according to individual design projects and some types of serial furniture. The authorized capital is formed from the shares of the founding members, between whom a memorandum of association is concluded and there is a Charter of the organization. The supreme body of the company is the general meeting of its members. An executive body has been created for the current management of the company's activities. In Comfort LLC, he is the sole person in the person of the General Director. The branch of activity is industry. Consumers of LLC "Comfort" products are mainly end users (individual customers, population), as well as enterprises and organizations (legal entities) that take furniture for their office space. OOO "Comfort" was founded in 1994 on the basis of a sawmill processing wood for the purpose of manufacturing joinery products. During this time, the assortment has changed more than once, only the main idea of creating the enterprise - the mission of the organization - has remained unchanged. And it consists in the following: providing individual customers and firms in Novosibirsk and the Siberian region with high-quality inexpensive furniture.
Today "Comfort" is a stably operating enterprise of the city, whose products are well known not only in the Novosibirsk region, but also in the Altai Territory, Tomsk, Kemerovo regions.
At the moment, Comfort LLC produces furniture for bedrooms, dining rooms, as well as office furniture. The nature of production is mainly single or small-scale. In the manufacture of furniture, the most advanced technologies and materials are used, so the quality of the furniture products of Comfort LLC is very high. Fully equipped with modern imported equipment and materials, production allows to produce high-quality parts with high precision.
Furniture designers are subordinate to the production director, brand departments of stores are subordinate to the commercial director.
A wide range of materials is used: chipboard of various colors, decorative plastics of imported production, including natural wood.
In addition to technologies and equipment, the company has:
- own raw material base (400 m²) for production; necessary transport;
- production and storage facilities;
Company salons.
There are only five branded salons in the Siberian region. All of them have the same assortment and price policy. However, it should be noted that there is no unified design style for these salons. Currently, the company employs 95 people. All suppliers of materials for the production of Comfort LLC are located in the Siberian region. In this regard, the delivery of raw materials and components is not difficult.
The location of LLC "Comfort" also allows you to easily supply products to customers, directly communicate with them.
The company pursues a flexible pricing and marketing policy.
Although the effectiveness of the organization as a whole can be assessed as high, the financial and economic condition of the enterprise is characterized as unstable. Therefore, in order to increase financial stability, it is necessary to use the on-farm reserves of Comfort LLC and start organizing the production of a more advanced product.
3 Calculation and analysis of risks LLC "Comfort"
To assess the risks of LLC "Comfort" activities, the method of expert assessments and the method of prioritization were used. In the process of project implementation, the main task of the financial director will be to identify the main risks, the likelihood of risks occurring by various methods, and develop a set of measures to reduce the risk or to completely eliminate it.
Let us group the risks of the enterprise according to the nature of their occurrence, the results will be reflected in Table 1.
Table 1
Grouping risks by the nature of their occurrence
Internal |
|
1. Socio-political |
|
1) refusal of the employee to go to work |
15) changing relations with local authorities and government |
2) change of management of the enterprise |
16) the possibility of committing theft, arson |
3) change in personal relationships between leaders |
|
4) difficulties in recruiting qualified personnel |
|
2. Technical and technological |
|
5) equipment failure (accident, repair, etc.) |
17) changing the terms of cooperation with suppliers |
6) mistakes of managers |
18) the emergence of new production technologies, which leads to a decrease in product prices or the emergence of substitute goods |
7) disconnection of communications (ventilation, water supply) |
19) changing GOSTs |
3. Economic. |
|
8) non-compliance with contractual obligations by the enterprise (late shipment, wrong quality, regrading) |
20) products are not sold at planned prices and within the estimated time |
9) growth in receivables |
21) the emergence of direct competitors |
10) suboptimal resource allocation |
22) termination of relations with supplier enterprises (their closure, liquidation) |
11) lack of working capital |
23) change in interest rates on bank loans |
12) decrease in the solvency of buyers |
24) establishing regional restrictions on the movement of goods and capital |
4. Environmental. |
|
13) non-compliance with environmental standards in the production of products |
25) tightening environmental standards for storage and transportation of products |
14) possibility of fire |
26) extreme weather conditions and cataclysms |
Having grouped the risks of the LLC “Comfort” organization by the nature of their occurrence, we will assess the risks. In such cases, resort to methods of expert assessments and use the method of prioritization.
The priority method is that all possible risks are distributed into groups, and experts evaluate the likelihood of a risk occurring and assess the significance of this risk for the project.
Let's consider the risks for a specific project or enterprise, estimating the probability of the risk occurrence (B i) based on the following system estimates.
Probability of occurrence of a specific risk:
0 - the risk is considered as insignificant;
25 - the risk is most likely not realized;
50 - nothing definite can be said about the onset of the event;
75 - the risk is likely to manifest itself;
100 - the risk is inevitable.
Let's place the corresponding coefficients of significance (Kzn i) for each risk. Significance factors represent the likely magnitude of the negative impact that a risk could have if it occurs.
The sum of the significance coefficients for all risk groups is one.
Kzn = Σ Kzn i =1, (1)
where Kzn is the total significance factor of all project risks;
Kzn i - coefficient of significance of the i-th risk;
n is the number of risks of an innovative project.
After determining the probability of occurrence and the coefficient of significance of each risk by expert means, the risk severity coefficient is calculated using the following formula:
Ktya i = B i х Kzn i , (2) where Ktyazh i is the severity coefficient of the i-th risk;
B i is the probability of the occurrence of the i-th risk;
Kzn i - coefficient of significance of the i-th risk.
The integral value of all risks is determined.
In = Σ Str i , (3)
where Bi is the integral value of the risk occurrence probability;
Ktyazhi - severity coefficient of the i-th risk;
The results of the calculations will be entered in table 2.
table 2
Risk assessment of LLC "Comfort"
Name of risk |
Coef. value |
Points*coefficient value (Ktyazh) |
|||
Internal risks |
|||||
employee refusal to go to work |
|||||
change of company management |
|||||
changing personal relationships between leaders |
|||||
difficulties in recruiting qualified personnel |
|||||
equipment failure (accident, repair, etc.) |
|||||
managerial mistakes |
|||||
disconnection of communications (ventilation, water supply) |
|||||
non-compliance with contractual obligations by the enterprise (late shipment, wrong quality, regrading) |
|||||
increase in receivables |
|||||
suboptimal resource allocation |
|||||
lack of working capital |
|||||
decrease in the solvency of buyers |
|||||
non-compliance with environmental standards in the production of products |
|||||
the possibility of a fire |
|||||
External risks |
|||||
changing relations with local authorities and administration |
|||||
possibility of theft, arson |
|||||
changing the terms of cooperation with suppliers |
|||||
the emergence of new production technologies, which leads to lower prices for products or the emergence of substitute products |
|||||
change in GOSTs |
|||||
products are not sold at planned prices and within the estimated time |
|||||
emergence of direct competitors |
|||||
termination of relations with supplier enterprises (their closure, liquidation) |
|||||
change in interest rates on bank loans |
|||||
establishing regional restrictions on the movement of goods and capital |
|||||
tightening environmental standards for storage and transportation of products |
|||||
extreme weather conditions and cataclysms |
|||||
Integral value of risk |
|
Types of risks |
Line code |
Causes of risk |
Risk Prevention Measures |
|
Demand volatility |
1. increase in product prices as a result of an increase in the cost of production 2. decrease in the level of solvency of consumers 3. change in product quality 4. change in consumer requirements 5. price cuts by competitors 6. emergence of an alternative product 7. emergence of new competitors |
Continuous analysis of market conditions in order to identify new consumers of products; Market research to assess changes in the level of demand; Efficient accounting, pricing and tax policy pursued by the enterprise; Continuous application of measures to reduce the cost of products. |
|
|
Rising prices for raw materials, electricity and fuel |
1. Increase in production costs and, as a result, an increase in cost 2. Increasing demand for cheaper sources of production |
Search for alternative suppliers; Formation of stocks of raw materials and materials. |
|
|
Non-fulfillment of contracts for the shipment of products |
1 Dependence on suppliers, untimely delivery of the necessary raw materials; 2. Bad faith of the personnel of the supplier and our organization; 3. The attitude of local authorities: the possibility of introducing additional restrictions (taxes) that complicate the sale of products and the project as a whole; 4. Force majeure. |
Formation of stocks of raw materials (mainly flour) and products in case of receipt of an order for the supply of products; The conclusion of the contract for the supply only with advance payment for the products. |
Continuation of Table 17
|
Decline in production and sales |
1. Increase in prices for raw materials, materials, fuel, electricity; 2. Reduced product quality; 3. Emergence of new competitors on the market. |
Conclusion of firm contracts for the supply of products; Direction of processes to improve product quality and improve technology. |
|
|
Deterioration in product quality |
1. Reducing production capacity; 2. Decrease in the quality of raw materials and materials |
Constant control of product quality; - improvement of production technology; Formation of a list of alternative suppliers. |
|
|
Risk of not receiving materials due to the termination of concluded supply contracts |
1. Acceptance by the supplier of a decision to change the terms of the contract for the supply of raw materials; 2. Force majeure circumstances leading to the impossibility of delivering raw materials necessary for the production of products (transport accidents). |
Expansion of the composition of suppliers; Creation of insurance stocks of raw materials; Development of a system for the functioning of the organization in the search for alternative suppliers. |
|
|
Political risk |
The possibility of losses or reduced profits as a result of government policy. |
Constant monitoring of the political situation in the country, as well as paying attention to changes in legislation. |
Continuation of Table 17
The value of the break-even point of production is determined in physical and cost terms based on the results of the implementation of this investment project:
Based on the data obtained, it can be seen that with a production volume of 5353114 pcs. and revenue 37900047.12 rubles. The company is not yet making a profit, but it is not making any losses either. The volume of production and revenue after the implementation of the investment project is characterized by the following indicators: output in physical and monetary terms will reach 11,653,000 units. and 82503240 rubles. respectively.
It is also necessary to determine the margin of safety for the production of Zheleznodorozhny bread:
So, the excess of the volume of production of Zheleznodorozhny bread after the implementation of the project and the volume of production at the break-even point is 54.06%.
Thus, we can conclude that this investment project is resistant to various fluctuations of external factors (inflation rate; refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; risks associated with the activities of the bakery), since the break-even level is 45.94%.
2. Qualitative analysis of financial risks on the example of a manufacturing enterprise
We will carry out a qualitative analysis of the risks of a machine-building enterprise, including financial risks, - OJSC Automobile Plant Ural (abbreviated as OJSC AZ Ural).
Guided by general considerations about the structure of risks by their types in the engineering industry, we will conduct a general qualitative risk analysis.
We identify risks in order to determine how to manage and minimize these risks. The balance of risk would mean that the company's resources are not fully concentrated on a particular strategy - a reasonable balance will be required between various risks, including risks related to the market, supply, technology and policy issues.
In the process of carrying out the activities of the enterprise, the main types of unforeseen circumstances will be physical and financial accidents. Physical accidents are associated with possible fluctuations in the reliability of expected sales, the cost of the engineering part of the project, etc.
Financial errors (such as inflation) will have a stronger effect on the financial viability of an enterprise than material errors, as they will change fixed investments, production and marketing costs, and sales. However, it is very difficult to assess the impact of inflation on wages and the cost of equipment.
Consider the main types of risks that the company under study may face.
The types of such risks are indicated in Table 1.
Table 2 presents a generalized risk assessment from the point of view of the business climate in the Russian Federation. Table 1. Structure of risks by their types
| Types of risks | Negative impact on expected profit, % |
| Commercial risk | 66 |
| Russian competitors | 95 |
| Western competitors | 90 |
| No well-known brand | 90 |
| Bankruptcy of buyers | 99 |
| Decrease in quality volumes | 100 |
| No distribution network | 90 |
| Discounts | 97 |
| Direct losses and non-payment for products | 99 |
| Organizational risk | 76 |
| No command | 90 |
| Logistics disruptions | 96 |
| Organizational and financial scheme | 90 |
| Internal irregularity | 98 |
| Technical risk | 94 |
| Shortage of constructors | 98 |
| Greater product complexity | 98 |
| Insufficient technology (equipment) | 98 |
| Political risk | 100 |
We will distribute the risks by their types and groups, give them an assessment on a scale from 1 to 10 (ranking from (1) - the best to (10) - the worst), expertly evaluate their weight (we assign a qualitative weight value to each risk) and value. In this case, the risk value is the result of multiplying the score and the weight.
The results of the distribution of risks by groups and types for the enterprise under study (JSC "AZ" Ural ") are presented in the table of Appendix 3.
So, the generalized risk assessment from the point of view of the business climate of the Russian Federation is as follows (risk level - nationwide / regional).
1. The risk can be classified as domestic economic, foreign economic and socio-political, which makes it possible to assess the investment attractiveness of both the South Ural region and Russia as a whole. Each type of risk is characterized by several indicators. The values of these indicators are determined in points by an expert, and each of the indicators in the evaluation system has its own weight corresponding to its significance. The scores obtained during the examination are summarized for all indicators, taking into account weight coefficients. The formed generalized assessment of this type of risk for this region is calculated as:
where r is the value of each indicator in points;
A is the weighting factor;
R - generalized risk assessment.
2. The most significant are such risk groups as socio-political risk (generalized score 6.57) and domestic economic risk (generalized score 6.85).
3. The general economic or national risk associated with the political and economic situation in the Russian Federation is determined by the business climate created in the South Ural region and the Russian Federation according to the expert estimates indicated above (Table 2).
Let's give an assessment of risks by their types from the point of view of the impact on the profitability of the enterprise, the results are presented in table 3.
Table 3. Assessment of risks by type in terms of impact on the profitability of the enterprise
| Risks | Coefficient of impact on profitability |
| Competition of other enterprises with a lower price Compensatory measures: Carrying out marketing research | 0,95 |
| Lack of information about our company Compensatory measures: | 0,95 |
| Lack of consumer demand for this type of product Compensatory measures: Search for new market niches | 0,99 |
| Reducing the volume of production for products with given consumer properties | 1,0 |
| The project provides for the cost of upgrading products, increasing costs due to the need to create a dealer, service network Compensatory measures: Provide for the cost of adding to the functions of an existing dealer network | 0,9 - 0,95 |
| The need to introduce a system of discounts (this probability is taken into account in the price of products) | 1,0 |
| Delay in payment (this probability is taken into account in the calculation) | 1,0 |
| insurance costs | 0,99 |
| Organizational risks | |
| Difficulties with the selection of personnel for the working group Compensatory measures: Structural reorganization of project departments and introduction of an incentive system | 0,95 |
| Problems with timely deliveries material and technical resources | 0,97 |
| Difficulties with the organization of the distribution network | 0,95 |
| Intra-factory irregularity of production | 0,98 |
| Technical risks | |
| The need for design improvements during production | 0,99 |
| The need to refine the technology for manufacturing components and assemblies during production | 0,99 |
| due to poor quality components. | 0,99 |
So, based on the assessment of risks in terms of their impact on the profitability of the enterprise (risk level - risk at the level of a single enterprise), the following general measures to reduce risk are proposed:
1. Marketing research.
2. Confirmation by consumers of need.
3. Combining the efforts of manufacturers of individual components and assemblies.
4. Combining the efforts of developers who have worked and are working in this area.
5. Acquisition of already completed developments.
6. Cooperation with high-tech manufacturers.
7. Cooperation with foreign enterprises.
8. Expansion of car modifications.
Industrial analysis (determining the stage of the life cycle of the engineering industry, establishing the position of the industry in relation to the business cycle and macroeconomic conditions, qualitative analysis and forecasting the prospects for the development of the engineering industry) allows us to draw the following conclusions: the industry risk is assessed as a risk at the average market level.
An assessment of the cyclical nature of the development of the engineering industry, based on a comparison of its dynamics with general economic trends, gives the following results:
fluctuations in prices and volumes occur in unison with general economic changes (the industry is cyclical);
The mechanical engineering industry is in the expansion stage, its main features are sales growth with some slowdown, high costs for the creation, purchase of machinery and equipment, other capital investments, investment inflow.
Therefore, for investors, investing in securities of the machine-building industry, which is in the expansion stage, is favorable (stable dividends are combined with a relatively low level of risk).
Let's evaluate the variational risk caused by the volatility of securities: how investors' expectations regarding future dividends and growth in market value will be justified (to a greater or lesser extent). Since this risk is associated with the deviation of actual returns relative to the expected ones, we calculate it as a coefficient of variation or the standard deviation of possible future returns relative to the most probable value of this indicator. The statistical modeling method used is beta analysis. The parameter b was estimated by an expert (since there is no representative statistics). Its value is taken in the range of 0.5 + 2 (subjective assessment of riskiness is slightly higher than the average market level for this type of investment, that is, slightly more than 1). We use the data in Table 4.
The assessment of risk factors in table 4 was made based on the results of industry, general economic risk, analysis of the financial condition of the issuer and its activities.
Fundamental “beta” according to the estimates, which are indicated in table 4, is calculated as follows:
Thus, an investment in the shares of the enterprise under study (JSC AZ Ural) is assessed lower relative to risky (when choosing the beta parameter in the range from 0.5 to 2, depending on the assessed risk factors).
Table 4. Variation risk assessment by expert way
| risk factor | Degree of risk | |||||||||||||||
| 1. low | 2. medium | 3. high | ||||||||||||||
| Risk class | ||||||||||||||||
| 11.1 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 2.3 | 33.1 | 33.2 | 3.3 | ||||||||
| Corresponding b | 00 | 00,25 | 0,5 | 00,75 | 11 | 1,25 | 11,5 | 11,75 | 2 | |||||||
| 1. General economic factors (Accounting for risk. Inflation) | ||||||||||||||||
| - special political risk rating | xx | |||||||||||||||
| - internal economic risk rating | X | |||||||||||||||
| - external economic risk rating | xx | |||||||||||||||
| 2. Industry factors | ||||||||||||||||
| - cyclic nature | xx | |||||||||||||||
| - stage of development | xx | |||||||||||||||
| - competition | X | |||||||||||||||
| - regulation | xx | |||||||||||||||
| - barriers to market entry | X | |||||||||||||||
| risk factor | Degree of risk | |||||||||||||||
| 11.1 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 2.3 | 33.1 | 33.2 | 3.3 | ||||||||
| 3. Risk factors at the firm level | ||||||||||||||||
| - liquidity | xx | |||||||||||||||
| - income stability | X | |||||||||||||||
| - financial leverage | xx | |||||||||||||||
| - operating lever | xx | |||||||||||||||
| - market share | xx | |||||||||||||||
| - clientele diversification | X | |||||||||||||||
| - product diversification | X | |||||||||||||||
| - diversification by territory | X | |||||||||||||||
| - technological level | xx | |||||||||||||||
| 4. Possibility of pursuing a policy to the detriment of the interests of security holders | ||||||||||||||||
| xx | ||||||||||||||||
| Total number of observations | 00 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 5 | 44 | 11 | 2 | |||||||
Conclusion
So, risk is an objective phenomenon in any sphere of human activity. This is a diverse category. It is almost never possible to say unequivocally what the consequences of an undesirable event will be.
Risk is the hypothetical possibility of harm occurring. Risk is an objective phenomenon in any sphere of human activity and manifests itself as a set of individual isolated risks. At its core, a risk is an event with negative, unfavorable economic consequences that may occur in the future at some point in an unknown amount. Risk is also understood as the possibility of not achieving pre-set goals.
In conditions of market uncertainty, the role of random and unaccounted for factors with the entire set of information sources is significant. Therefore, intra-company planning forecasts are probabilistic in nature.
Risk theory considers not only types of risks, but also methods of their analysis and risk management.
When identifying and analyzing risk, choosing alternatives, in some cases, when making calculations, it is necessary to quantify the probabilities of the initial data contained in sections of the business plan and other planning documents.
Thus, aspects and methods of analysis under risk are discussed in the economic theory of investment planning in the analysis of break-even, sensitivity and probabilistic analysis.
Risk can be managed by predicting the occurrence of a risk event and taking measures to reduce the degree of risk. The effectiveness of risk management is largely determined by risk classification.
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Attachment 1
Approximate lists of simple risks by stages
investment project
| Preparatory stage | |
| Type of risk | Negative impact on the expected profit from the implementation of the project |
| Distance from transport hubs | Additional costs for the creation of access roads, increased operating costs |
| Distance from engineering networks | Additional capital investments for the supply of electricity, heat, water |
| Attitude of local authorities | The possibility of introducing additional restrictions that complicate the implementation of the project |
| Availability of contractors on site | The danger of overestimation of the cost of work due to the monopoly position of the contractor |
| Availability of alternative sources of raw materials | The danger of overpricing under the monopoly position of the contractor |
| Construction stage | |
| Simple Risks | Negative impact on expected earnings |
| Solvency of the customer | Increase in borrowings and decrease in net income due to interest payments |
| Unforeseen costs, including due to inflation | Increasing the amount of borrowed funds |
| Disadvantages of design and survey work | Rising construction costs, delays in commissioning capacities |
| Late delivery of components | Increased construction time, payment of fines to the contractor |
| Contractor dishonesty | Increase in construction time |
| Untimely preparation of engineers and workers | Increase in the period of reaching the design mode |
| Stage of operation: financial and economic risks | |
| Simple Risks | |
| Demand volatility | Falling demand with rising prices |
| The emergence of an alternative product | Decrease in demand |
| Price cuts by competitors | Price reduction |
| Increasing production from competitors | Falling sales or price cuts |
| Tax increase | Decrease in net profit |
| Continuation of the table. Attachment 1. | |
| Consumer solvency | Drop in sales |
| Rising prices for raw materials, materials, transportation | |
| Dependence on suppliers, lack of alternatives | Decline in profits due to rising prices |
| Lack of working capital | Increase in creditors |
| Stage of functioning: social risks | |
| Simple Risks | Negative impact on earnings |
| Difficulties in recruiting skilled labor | Increase in picking costs |
| Strike Threat | Penalties for breach of contracts |
| Attitude of local authorities | Additional costs for fulfilling their requirements |
| Insufficient wages | Staff turnover, decreased productivity |
| Personnel qualification | Decrease in rhythm, growth of marriage, increase in accidents |
| social infrastructure | Growth of non-production costs |
| Stage of operation: technical risks | |
| Simple Risks | Negative impact on earnings |
| Wear and tear of equipment | Increase in projects and repair costs |
| The instability of the quality of raw materials and materials | Decrease in production volumes and materials due to changeover of equipment, decrease in product quality |
| Novelty of technologies | Increase in development costs, decrease in production volumes |
| Insufficient reliability | Increasing the accident rate of technology |
| Lack of power reserve | Inability to cover peak demand, loss of production in case of accidents |
| Stage of operation: environmental risks | |
| Simple Risks | Negative impact on earnings |
| Probability of volley ejections | Increasing contingency costs |
| Emissions to air and discharges to water | Treatment equipment costs |
| Proximity to the village | Increasing costs for wastewater treatment plants and environmental impact assessment of the project |
| Harmfulness of production | Rising operating costs |
| Waste storage | Rising cost |
Appendix 2
Classification of investment project risks
| External unpredictable risks |
| 1. Unexpected government regulatory measures in the areas of: · material and technical supply; · environmental protection; design standards; production standards; · land use; export-import; · pricing; taxation. |
| 2. Natural disasters: · floods; earthquakes; storms; climate change, etc. |
| 3. Crimes: · vandalism; · sabotage; terrorism. |
| 4. Unexpected externalities: ecological; social. |
| in the creation of the necessary infrastructure; · due to the bankruptcy of contractors for design, supply, construction, etc.; in financing; due to errors in defining the goals of the project; due to unexpected political changes. |
| External predictable (but uncertain) risks |
| 1. Market risk due to: Deterioration of the possibility of obtaining raw materials; an increase in the cost of raw materials; changing consumer requirements; · economic changes; increased competition; Loss of position in the market The unwillingness of buyers to comply with trade rules. |
| 2. Operating: Impossibility to maintain the working state of project elements; a breach of security; Departure from project goals. |
| 3. Unacceptable environmental impacts. |
| 4. Negative social consequences. |
| 5. Change in exchange rates. |
| 6. Off-set inflation. |
| 7. Taxation. |
| Internal non-technical risks |
| 1. Disruptions to work plans due to: lack of labor force; lack of materials late delivery of materials; poor conditions on construction sites; Changes in the capabilities of the project customer, contractors; Design errors |
| lack of coordination of work; Changes in leadership incidents and sabotage; difficulties of the initial period; unrealistic planning; · weak management; inaccessibility of the object. |
| 2. Cost overrun due to: disruption of work plans; Wrong strategy of supply; · unqualified personnel; overpayments for materials, services, etc.; parallelism in the work and inconsistencies in the parts of the project; contractor protests; Incorrect estimates Unaccounted for external factors. |
| Technical risks |
| 1. Technology change. |
| 2. Deterioration in the quality and productivity of production associated with the project. |
| 3. Specific risks of the technology included in the project. |
| 4. Errors in design estimates. |
| Legal risks |
| 1. Licenses. |
| 2. Patent law. |
| 3. Failure to fulfill contracts. |
| 4. Litigation with external partners. |
| 5. Domestic litigation. |
| 6. Force majeure (extraordinary circumstances). |
| Insured risks |
| 1. Direct damage to property: transport incidents; · equipment; materials; property of contractors. |
| 2. Indirect losses: dismantling and relocation of damaged property; rearrangement of equipment; Loss of rental income Violation of the planned rhythm of activity; · increase in necessary financing. |
| 3. Risks insured in accordance with regulatory documents to third parties: infliction of bodily harm; damage to property; damage to the project due to design and implementation errors; violation of the work schedule. |
| 4. Employees: · injuries; The cost of changing employees loss of profit. |
Annex 3
Distribution of risks by groups and types
(using assessments of the business climate in the Russian Federation by the Inivers agency /10, p.147; 13, p. 59/)
| Risks by groups and types | The weight | Grade | Meaning |
| 1. Socio-political risk |
|||
| 1.1. External threat to stability (10) extremely high | 0,03 | 3 | 0,09 |
| 1.2. Government stability (1) no change (10) under the threat of change | 0,1 | 8 | 0,8 |
| 1.3. Characteristics of the official opposition (1) constructive (10) destructive | 0,05 | 3 | 0,15 |
| 1.4. Influence of illegal opposition (1) does not exist (10) threat of revolution | 0,04 | 6 | 0,24 |
| 1.5. Assessment of social stability (1) stability (10) extreme tension | 0,1 | 7 | 0,7 |
| 1.6. The relationship of the labor force with the administrative apparatus (1) cooperation (10) frequent strikes | 0,04 | 5 | 0,2 |
| 1.7. Estimated unemployment rate in the next 12 months (1) no unemployment (10) exceeds 25% of the economically active population | 0,15 | 7 | 1,05 |
| 1.8. Assessment of the distribution of total income (1) uniform (10) sharp stratification of society | 0,07 | 7 | 0,49 |
| 1.9. The attitude of the authorities towards foreign investment (1) incentives and guarantees (10) hard limits | 0,1 | 5 | 0,5 |
| 1.10. Risk of nationalization without full compensation (1) practically absent (10) very high | 0,02 | 4 | 0,08 |
| 1.11. The attitude of the local bureaucracy (1) facilitating and efficient (10) corrupt and opposing | 0,12 | 7 | 0,84 |
| 1.12. Government intervention in the economy (1) minimum (10) permanent and defining | 0,07 | 8 | 0,56 |
| 1.13. State ownership in the economy (1) very limited (10) dominant | 0,07 | 9 | 0,63 |
| 1.14. Probability of armed conflicts with CIS countries (1) missing (10) conflicts are inevitable | 0,04 | 6 | 0,24 |
| TOTAL: | 1,0 | 85 | 6,57 |
| 2. Domestic risk | |||
| 2.1. The general state of the economy in the next 12 months (1) very good (10) serious problems | 0,1 | 9 | 0,9 |
| 2.2. GNP growth in comparable prices (1) growth over 10% (10) fall more than 10% | 0,05 | 9 | 0,45 |
| 2.3. Expected increase in GNP at constant prices compared to the past (1) significant acceleration (10) plummet | 0,05 | 8 | 0,4 |
| 2.4. Growth in industrial production in the next 12 months (1) growth over 10% (10) fall more than 10% | 0,1 | 9 | 0,9 |
| 2.5. Growth of capital investments in the next 12 months (1) growth over 10% (10) fall more than 10% | 0,1 | 8 | 0,8 |
| 2.6. Growth in consumer demand over the next 12 months (1) growth over 10% (10) fall more than 10% | 0,05 | 7 | 0,35 |
| 2.7. Current inflation (1) more than 5% (10) more than 100% | 0,05 | 10 | 0,5 |
| 2.8. Inflation dynamics in the next 12 months (1) significant slowdown | 0,05 | 7 | 0,35 |
| (10) hard acceleration | |||
| 2.9. Access to foreign funding (1) available (10) extremely hard to get | 0,05 | 8 | 0,4 |
| 2.10. Availability/cost of labor (1) an abundance of cheap labor (10) labor shortage | 0,05 | 1 | 0,05 |
| 2.11. Qualification, quality of workforce (1) high (10) Skilled labor force is almost non-existent | 0,05 | 3 | 0,15 |
| 2.12. monetary policy (1) soft (10) rigid | 0,05 | 4 | 0,2 |
| 2.13. fiscal policy (1) stimulating demand (10) rigid | 0,05 | 5 | 0,25 |
| 2.14. Level of taxation (1) relatively low (10) extremely high | 0,05 | 7 | 0,35 |
| 2.15. Dynamics of the level of taxes (1) will decline (10) will rise | 0,05 | 4 | 0,2 |
| 2.16. Development of the oil and gas complex (1) more than 10% growth (10) fall more than 10% | 0,1 | 6 | 0,6 |
| TOTAL: | 1,0 | 105 | 6,85 |
| 3. External economic risk | |||
| 3.1. General State of Balance of Payments with Dollar Area (1) good (10) serious problems | 0,1 | 7 | 0,7 |
| 3.2. Trade balance with the dollar zone in the next 12 months (1) sharply positive (10) sharply negative | 0,1 | 8 | 0,8 |
| Continuation of Appendix 3 table | |||
| Risks by groups and types | The weight | Grade | Meaning |
| 3.3. Growth of exports to the dollar zone in the next 12 months (1) growth over 10% (10) fall more than 10% | 0,05 | 4 | 0,2 |
| 3.4. Growth of imports from the dollar zone in the next 12 months (1) growth over 10% (10) fall more than 10% | 0,05 | 5 | 0,25 |
| 3.5. General state of balance of payments with the ruble zone (1) good (10) serious problems | 0,1 | 2 | 0,2 |
| 3.6. Trade balance with the ruble zone in the next 12 months (1) sharply positive (10) sharply negative | 0,1 | 2 | 0,2 |
| 3.7. Growth of exports to the ruble zone in the next 12 months (1) growth over 10% (10) fall more than 10% | 0,05 | 6 | 0,3 |
| 3.8. Growth of imports from the ruble zone in the next 12 months (2) growth over 10% (10) fall more than 10% | 0,05 | 3 | 0,15 |
| 3.9. Official restrictions on the movement of capital (1) free movements (10) movement prohibited | 0,05 | 6 | 0,3 |
| 3.10. Dynamics of official restrictions on the movement of capital (1) is greatly simplified (10) much more difficult | 0,05 | 5 | 0,25 |
| 3.11. Dynamics of restrictions on trading with the dollar zone in the next 12 months (1) is greatly simplified (10) much more difficult | 0,05 | 5 | 0,25 |
| 3.12. Dynamics of restrictions on trading with the ruble zone in the next 12 months (1) is greatly simplified (10) much more difficult | 0,05 | 6 | 0,3 |
| 3.13. Changes in the ruble exchange rate in the next 12 months (1) more than 20% increase (10) more than 20% drop | 0,1 | 8 | 0,8 |
| TOTAL: | |||
LLC "Liask-T"
Annotation:
This article presents the process of risk analysis, as well as considers logistical risks and suggests possible options for their elimination on the example of a real-life company "LIASK-T" - an official dealer of leading manufacturers of equipment for heat and water supply and sanitation.
This article presents a risk analysis process, and considers the logistics risks and proposes options for an exemption to real companies "LIASK-T" - the official dealer of leading manufacturers of equipment for heat, water supply and drainage.
Keywords:
Logistic risks, dealer, stages of risk analysis, probability assessment, logistics system.
The logistical risks, dealer, the stages of the risk analysis, estimation of probability, the logistics system.
UDC 656.073
Introduction.
Minimizing logistical risks in the enterprise is one of the most important tasks facing any company that focuses on success. The ability to quickly respond to changes in the environment, the ability to conduct a competent analysis of the current situation and find leverage for the emergence of a problem - this is what is most in demand in today's business environment. This issue is very interesting for research and attracts many theorists and practitioners of economic science, such as Sergeev V.I., Ayupov R.K., Moiseeva N.K., as well as foreign scientists.
This article analyzes logistical risks on the example of a particular enterprise and suggests ways to solve emerging problems.
Liask-T LLC is an official dealer of leading manufacturers: Danfoss, Grundfos, Ridan. DANFOSS - automation for heat supply systems, pipeline fittings, thermostats. GRUNDFOS - pumping equipment. RIDAN - plate heat exchangers.
Liask-t LLC is a dealer, namely a market participant, carrying out trading activities on its own behalf and at its own expense. The most important feature of a trading and intermediary enterprise is a high degree of turnover, that is, the movement of goods in the sphere of circulation and sale.
Risk is the possibility of the occurrence of an event that, if realized, would have a negative impact on the company's achievement of its long-term and short-term goals. Risk is measured by evaluating the consequences and likelihood of events occurring.
Risk assessment is a process of systematic study and generalization of professional judgments about the likelihood of adverse conditions and (or) events.
Uncertainty can be considered as a set of situations that can be foreseen in advance, but it is impossible to determine how much they will affect the result of logistics activities. Counteraction is the intentional resistance of the participants in the logistics process to the prevailing circumstances.
A successful risk assessment very often relies on the professional judgment and experience of internal auditors and the head of internal audit.
At the Liask-T LLC enterprise, the logistics risks are assessed by the head of the logistics department.
The main goal of the head of the logistics department is to combat the negative consequences of risks, that is, to reduce losses from logistics activities at the Liask-T LLC enterprise and, if possible, increase the positive risk, that is, profit. Decisions on specific actions to protect and reduce (increase) the risk can be detailed only with a thorough study and analysis of risk situations that are possible in the future and the present.
The whole process of risk analysis can be divided into eight stages that help manage the risk (reduce its negative consequences).
Consider the content of all stages.
1. Risk identification
This stage of the analysis of logistical risks consists in the formation of a complete list of adverse events.
When identifying risks, both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment can be obtained.
To perform these tasks at the first stage of the analysis, it is necessary to use all types of risks. Since they all have a certain degree of influence on each other.
At the enterprise Liask-T LLC, the risks can be presented in the form of Table 1.
Table 1.
|
Type of risk |
|
|
1. Organizational |
1.1 Risks associated with supplier errors, errors of the logistics manager of Liask-T LLC, as well as errors of employees of outsourcing firms. 1.2 Risks associated with the internal organization of the company |
|
2. Market |
2.1 Risks, decrease in demand for products 2.2 Liquidity risk |
|
3. Entrepreneurial (commercial) |
3.1 Acceptance risk; 3.2 Risk associated with the sale of goods; 3.3 Risk associated with the transport of goods 3.4 Risk of profit reduction; 3.5 Risk of reduced turnover; 3.6 Risk of increase in purchase (wholesale) prices; 3.7 Risk of rising commodity and transport costs; |
|
4. Credit |
4.1 The risk that the counterparty will not fulfill its obligations on time (violation of contractual conditions for payment); 4.2 Risks associated with payment terms; |
|
5. Technical |
5.1 Risk of fires, accidents and breakdowns, suspension of the network. 5.2 Force Majeure; |
|
6. Technical and technological |
6.1 The risk associated with the breakdown of computer equipment and other equipment, with the help of which part of the logistics functions are carried out. |
Figure 1. Morphological chain of risks at the LLC "Liask-T" enterprise.
The morphological chain presented above shows the influence of risks on each other. By identifying one risk, it is easier to identify other risks that result from it.
For example, if we consider the morphological chain, we can see that “the risk of fires, accidents and breakdowns, network interruption” leads to the emergence of such risks as:
− risk associated with acceptance;
− risk associated with the sale of goods;
− the risk associated with the transportation of goods;
− risks associated with supplier errors, errors of the logistics manager of Liask-T LLC, as well as errors of employees of outsourcing firms.
Next, we highlight the logistical risks. Logistics risks are the risks of performing logistics operations of transportation, warehousing, cargo handling and inventory management and the risks of logistics management at all levels, including management risks arising from the performance of logistics functions and operations.
In order to identify all logistical risks, it is necessary for the logistician of the Liask-T LLC to designate official risks. They include:
− ordering equipment;
− planning and coordinating the schedule of shipments from suppliers optimization of schemes;
− calculation of terms and cost of delivery;
− choice of carrier and optimal vehicle;
− search for new carriers, preparation and conclusion of contracts, execution of accompanying documents, transportation insurance;
− preparation of documentation for the production of certificates;
− settlement of disputes, work with claims;
− warehouse operation control;
− inventory optimization;
− control of completeness and readiness of orders for shipment;
− conducting inventories.
2. Assessment of the likelihood of adverse events
3. Determination of the structure of the alleged damage
4. Construction of damage distribution laws.
5. Risk assessment
6. Identifying and evaluating the effectiveness of possible risk mitigation methods
Such methods are divided into groups:
- methods that help avoid risk;
- methods that reduce the likelihood of an adverse event;
- methods that reduce possible damage;
- methods, the essence of which is to transfer the risk to other objects;
- methods that are based on compensation for the damage received or caused.
7. Deciding on the definition of a list of risk management actions
8. Monitoring the effectiveness and results of the implementation of risk mitigation measures.
So, in each logistics subsystem of Liask-T LLC, you can identify your own risks, examples of which we will consider in the table below.
Table 2 . Morphological table of logistical risks of the enterprise LLC "Liask-T"
|
Name of logistics subsystems |
Solution to the problem |
|
|
The price does not match the quality of the product. Increase in the cost of purchasing 1 batch of goods |
Functional price analysis. Compliance with budget constraints. Optimization (by Pareto) of transaction conditions |
|
|
Transportation |
Increase in transport costs Violation of the delivery schedule. Loss of property |
Route optimization Dispatching. Property protection. Property insurance. Liability Insurance |
|
Storage |
Immobilization of material resources. Loss (theft) of property |
Inventory Management. Property protection. Fire fighting measures. property insurance |
|
Logistics |
Imbalance (non-compliance of supply with needs) Inconsistency in the quality of material resources. deficiency situations. Excess stocks and illiquid assets |
Rationing of the consumption of material resources. Input control. operational purchases. Inventory management. Just-in-time deliveries |
Let's consider each of these subsystems.
Based on the invoices issued by the supplier, the responsible logistician checks the correctness of the supplier's invoice, as well as the compliance of the supplier's invoice with the organization's pricing policy. It is important to check the discounts provided.
LLC "Liask-T" is an intermediary, which means shortage, regrading, goods of inadequate quality - something that a company may encounter when working with a supplier. In the event of such situations, the company's logisticians should write official letters asking for an inventory at the supplier's warehouse, as well as delivery of goods as soon as possible and at the expense of the supplier. In the event that clients impose penalties on Liask-T LLC for failure to meet delivery deadlines, the enterprise has the right to apply in writing to the supplier company with a claim for damages.
Storage:
Warehouse complex of the company "Liask-T" LLC allows you to place the goods for both short-term and long-term storage.
For such a retail warehouse, goods are placed in accordance with the size grouping on the racks. The warehouse of Liask-T LLC has sections for large and small goods. For different products, different ratios of the quantities of small, medium and large cells in the warehouse, different cell sizes in depth are needed.
Since 2013, a new system of targeted placement of goods has been introduced into the warehouse, which will help to avoid the loss of goods, regrading and losses. This is important to ensure an increase in turnover, avoid errors in the placement of goods and quickly find them even for new employees after a short briefing. Each storage location will be assigned a code (address) indicating the number of the rack (stack), the number of the vertical section and the number of the shelf. When issuing documents for the shipment or acceptance of goods, the invoice will indicate the place where this goods should be placed.
In order for all the goods to reach the address safe and sound, you should carefully consider the choice of packaging. Packaging materials can be represented by a variety of types: wooden boxes and pallets, plastic containers, rag bags, polyethylene rolls and much more. In each case, you should choose the appropriate packaging, based on the characteristics of the cargo itself and the type of its transportation.
The most important need is inventory in the warehouse:
The main tasks of the inventory are:
- identification of the actual presence of property;
- control over the safety of goods and materials, by comparing the actual availability with accounting data;
- identification of goods and materials that have lost their original qualities, stale and not needed by the organization;
- verification of compliance with the rules and conditions of storage of goods and materials.
Transportation:
The company "Liask-T" LLC often uses the services of third-party organizations, namely, the transportation of goods from Omsk to other cities of Russia shifts to the shoulders of transport companies. Using outsourcing services, you may face the risk of delayed delivery, loss of goods in transit, as well as damage during transportation or reloading. In order to avoid the above consequences, it is necessary to use the services of goods insurance against damage, loss and damage. So, for example, when compiling rational routes, not only the location of loading and unloading points in the transportation area is taken into account, but also the type of goods transported, the type of transport used for transportation, shift work, and the remoteness of motor transport enterprises. Therefore, Liask-T LLC has preferences in using the services of transport companies. So, each TC has its pros and cons.
Conditions for choosing a TC:
- Geography of presence;
- Cost and terms of cargo delivery
- Optimization by terms-rates and service
- Collection of cargo on time;
- Collection of cargo on the day of treatment;
- Daily shipments to any destination;
- Intra-container recalculation of cargo;
- Round-the-clock tracking of cargo in transit.
- The possibility of "SMS" notification of the location of the cargo;
- Possibility of delivery and receipt of goods on weekends;
- Suspension of the execution of the delivery service, change of direction of movement, return;
- Availability of official state registration;
- Availability of a license for the implementation of transport services, in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation;
- Experience in the field of cargo transportation;
- Availability of a standard contract, the possibility of drawing up additional agreements;
- Availability of an insurance policy of a transport company;
- Good dispatch service;
- Availability of an official website;
- Regularity of flights, etc.;
Each of these conditions must be taken into account in order to nullify all logistical and other risks arising from them.
Calculating the terms and cost of equipment delivery, the logistician of Liask-T LLC must take into account all the conditions. So, for example, not knowing the terms of equipment delivery, the logistician can designate the delivery amount at 1000 USD, counting on one delivery, in fact, the equipment can arrive in several stages and the cost of its delivery will be much more than the pledged amount.
Logistics:
For the successful implementation of economic activities, the enterprise must have a sufficient minimum of its own working capital. The financial position of enterprises largely depends on the state of their own working capital, their safety and proper use.
Inventory management risks in this enterprise are quite high, since it is the level of inventory that is the main reason for satisfying customer demand. If the enterprise, without predicting demand, replenishes the warehouse stock, then it will face the fact that it will spend money on unsold goods, which in the future will be able to move into the group of illiquid assets. When an enterprise reduces the risk of a shortage of material resources, it tries to increase the level of stocks, but stocks can play a negative role in the enterprise, freezing the financial resources of business organizations in large volumes of inventory.
The lack of funds is fraught with a decrease in trade, the emergence of debts to suppliers and banks for loans. As a consequence, these debts lead to the risk of delayed shipments, increased delivery times, and further along the chain the same penalties for late delivery of goods to the client.
In order to replenish commodity stocks, a trading enterprise resorts to loans, which means that it increases its overall risk. Indeed, many large client companies purchase goods under a contract based on payment after delivery. This means that the company "Liask-T" LLC is forced to take out a loan in case of a lack of its own financial resources to purchase the necessary consignment of goods.
As a result, an increase in accounts payable leads to the fact that the company will constantly divert funds from the turnover to pay interest on the loan, fines. The enterprise may not have sufficient funds to purchase the quantity of goods corresponding to demand. And this leads to a decrease in turnover, and, hence, profits, and so on along the chain. The absence of the necessary goods in the warehouse provokes lost profits.
In order to maintain the company's own working capital, the logistician needs to predict the stock, using, for example, economic and mathematical methods and models.
When forecasting the demand for durable goods, one cannot do without data on their actual consumption during the analyzed period and without the actual availability of these goods among the population, as well as the patterns of their obsolescence.
So, for example, at the supplier of Liask-T LLC, one pumping equipment can be replaced by another more energy-saving one, the price of which is lower than that of the first one.
Exploring all the logistical risks inherent in this type of enterprise, Liask-T LLC has the opportunity to warn itself against negative consequences at all stages, namely at the stage of supply, transportation and marketing.
Bibliographic list:
1. "Main page" [Electronic resource]// http://liask.ru/ (date of access: 12/15/2013).
2. "Dealer" [Electronic resource]// http://ru.wikipedia.org/ (date of access: 10.12.2013).
3. "Risk" [Electronic resource]// http://ru.wikipedia.org/ (date of access: 10.12.2013).
4. "Risk Analysis Stages" Electronic resource // http://www.cfin.ru/finanalysis/risk/stages.shtml/ (date of access: 12/16/2013).
Reviews:
12/31/2013, 13:43 Skripko Tatyana Aleksandrovna
Review: In the annotation it is necessary to indicate what the author stated in the article, and not to characterize in detail the object - the enterprise. Supplement with the necessary standard headings: relevance, purpose, research objectives, theorists who worked on this problem, etc. The article in the main part is interesting, but so far it is not recommended to print, finalize it.
01/05/2014 17:17 Response to the author's review Lushnikova Maria Andreevna:
Dear Tatyana Alexandrovna! Thanks for the review. I tried to take into account your comments. Please read the article again. Lushnikova Maria.
01/01/2014, 14:23 Krug Eleonora Aleksandrovna
Review: The article presents interesting material that needs some stylistic improvement. Also, for the completeness of the analysis of the information presented, the author should present the economic consequences of the impact of logistical risks on the enterprise. The article can be recommended for publication after revision.
01/01/2014, 16:47 Degtyar Andrey Olegovich
Review: I fully agree with Tatyana Aleksandrovna Skripko. The article is not ready for publication.
3.01.2014, 15:14 Shargorodskaya Natalya Leonidovna
Review: The article is of interest and can be recommended for publication after revision. The author needs to substantiate the relevance of the research topic, indicate the authors who studied this problem. The list of references is not compiled according to the standard.
01/5/2014, 2:56 Nazarova Olga Petrovna
Review: Good analysis, just redo the annotation. After revision, it is recommended for printing. Recommended for printing.
01/05/2014 18:18 Response to the author's review Lushnikova Maria Andreevna:
Dear Olga Petrovna! Thank you for your review of my article. I tried to correct your comment. Please see the edited version.
12.01.2014, 13:21 Orekhov Vladimir Ivanovich
Review: recommended for printing
01/14/2014, 08:52 PM Orekhova Tatyana Romanovna
Review: recommended for printing
17.01.2014, 13:24 Chernova Olga Anatolyevna
Review: The article presents not an analysis, but a methodology for its implementation. I recommend changing the title. In general, the work was done at a high level. Recommended for printing