Foreign trade is trade between countries, consisting of the export and import of goods and services. Its volume is calculated by summing up the volumes of exports and imports. Export - the sale of goods, providing for its export abroad.

Import - the purchase of goods, providing for its import from abroad. Export and import are two key concepts characterizing international movement goods that are used for a comprehensive analysis of foreign trade and for practical purposes. total amount export and import is the foreign trade turnover with foreign countries. Exports and imports of goods for which payments are made during a given period form the balance of trade. The balance of trade is only part of the balance of payments. The balance of payments includes the sum of all monetary payments made by a given country to other countries for a certain period, and the sum of all monetary receipts received by it during the same period from other countries. It is possible to have a passive balance of trade, i.e., an excess of imports of goods over exports, and at the same time an active balance of payments, i.e., an excess of money receipts from abroad over payments to other countries.

There are a number of indicators characterizing the degree of a country's involvement in foreign economic relations. For example, the export quota shows the ratio of the value of exports to the value of GDP. The volume of exports per capita of a given country characterizes the degree of "openness" of the economy. Export potential (export opportunities) is the share of products that a given country can sell on the world market without harming its own economy (minus domestic needs).

It should be noted that the export orientation of production makes it dependent on changes in world prices, fluctuations in supply and demand, and competition in the world market. Such dependence is especially dangerous for countries with a narrow specialization of the economy, the development of which is predetermined by export earnings. Import dependence is no less fraught with dangerous consequences. Rising world prices, a trade deficit, restrictions on foreign trade deliveries in the exporting country - all this can adversely affect an economy that is overly dependent on imports. Production created with the participation of foreign capital and on the basis of imported technology can lead to dependence on foreign economic centers.

The country's foreign trade is regulated by the state in the course of implementing foreign trade policy. When developing and implementing foreign trade policy, two fundamental approaches are used. The first, free trade, implies freedom of trade, its implementation without restrictions; the second, protectionism, justifies state intervention in international trade in order to promote its growth, taking into account the interests of the national economy. Instability in world trade, world economic crises force countries to use the policy of trade protectionism. Previously, protectionism relied mainly on the tariff and customs system, but after the Second World War, the importance of non-tariff barriers increased sharply, the number of which is constantly growing. The purpose of non-tariff barriers is general restriction imports through trade discrimination of individual countries. Non-tariff barriers include the state monopoly of foreign trade, ensuring state consumption only in goods domestic production, complex currency control over the import of goods, sanitary standards for food products, etc. The most widespread in last years received such a type of non-tariff restriction as import quotas, i.e., a quantitative restriction on the volume of foreign products annually permitted by the state for import into a given country. At the same time, the state issues a limited number of import licenses and prohibits unlicensed imports.

To regulate relations between countries in the field of foreign trade, international organizations: GATT, UNCTAD, etc. GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) Since 1995, the World Trade Organization (WTO) began to function as a successor to the WTO.

More on topic 42. foreign trade and trade policy. Trade and balance of payments.:

1. 10. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN THE SPHERE OF TRADE RELATIONS
2. 1. FOREIGN TRADE OF RUSSIA AND ITS POSITION IN THE SYSTEM OF WORLD ECONOMIC RELATIONS
3. Classification of balance of payments items according to the IMF methodology
4. 42. foreign trade and trade policy. trade and balance of payments.

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Trade is the main form of economic cooperation between Russia and the EU countries, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Moreover, compared with the beginning of the 1990s, the relative importance of partners for each other has clearly increased. The share of the EU in Russia's foreign trade turnover increased from 43 to 51%, and Russia's share in the EU's foreign trade turnover - from 3 to 8.6% (Table 37.2). This data suggests that Russia is much more dependent on trade with the EU than the EU is on trade with it. However, it should be remembered that we are comparing one country with a large group of countries. The GDP of Russia and the EU correlate as 1:8, and the volume of their foreign trade (excluding trade between the EU member states) - as 1:5. However, the current concentration of Russia's trade ties in the European direction is excessive. Russia should diversify the geographic structure of its trade, primarily by expanding trade with China, India and the APEC countries.

Table 37.2

(1993-2001 - without unorganized trade)

Note. 1993 - EU consisting of 12 countries; 1997, 2000 and 2003 - EU consisting of 15 countries; 2005 and 2007 - The EU is composed of 27 countries.

Volumes of trade between Russia and 27 EU member states in 2007 (million dollars):

Russian exports: 1993 - 25,215; 1997 - 41,454; 2000 - 55,971; 2003 - 69,956;

Import to Russia: 1993 - 13,228; 1997 - 24,679; 2000 - 13,499; 2003 - 26,749.

Sources: Exports and imports of Russia for the period 1992-1998. (but according to the State Customs Committee of Russia). URL: http://www.rusimpex.ru/Content/Economics/Rustrade/eximp93-98.htm; Foreign economic complex of Russia: state of the art and prospects: stat. Appendix. Moscow: VNIKI, 2001-2007; External and Intra-European Union Trade. The European Commission, Brussels-Luxemburg, 1996-2005; Russia. EU bilateral trade and trade with the EU. P. 3. URL: http://ec.europa.eu/com\trade/issues/bilateral/ countries/russia/index, e n.

Dynamics and geography of trade. There are two main stages in the development of trade relations between Russia and the European Union: from 1991 to 1999 and from 2000 to the present. In the early 1990s, trade grew at an accelerated pace due to the fact that the Russian authorities abolished the state monopoly on foreign trade. Thousands of domestic enterprises entered the foreign market, millions of individual traders - "shuttle traders" joined them. By the mid-1990s, the foreign trade effect of liberalization was almost exhausted. The growth of commodity flows in both directions slowed down. The financial crisis of 1998 in Russia led to sharp drop turnover. In 1999, its exports fell by 10%, and imports (due to the devaluation of the ruble) - by more than 40%. Overall, between 1993 and 2000, the value of Russian exports to the EU increased by 88%, while imports returned to their initial levels. During this period of time, the trade turnover increased by 1.6 times.

Since 2000, the rate of trade growth has accelerated sharply. Exports grew mainly due to the fantastic rise in prices for oil and (to a lesser extent) for other types of raw materials. Imports expanded thanks to the economic recovery that began in Russia, which led to a rapid increase in domestic production and consumer demand. In the period from 2000 to 2007, the trade turnover between Russia and the EU-27 increased 4.1 times, including Russian exports - 3.5 times, and imports - 6.5 times.

Russia's trade relations with individual EU member states are developing in different ways. Its three main partners are invariably Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. They account for 19%, 16% and 13%, respectively, of the total value of trade between Russia and the European Union. This is followed by France, Finland, Poland and the UK, each with a share of about 5-6%. Thus, the seven named countries account for 70% of trade between Russia and the EU. As practice has shown, the accession to the EU of the CEE countries did not lead to a reduction in their trade turnover with Russia. The switching of trade relations of these countries to Western Europe occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, and in the current decade Russia's share in their foreign trade has stabilized. The share of the CEE countries in the total value of trade between Russia and the EU not only did not fall, but, on the contrary, increased from 17.5% in 2003 to 20.7% in 2006, which is almost twice their share in the total EU GDP .

Commodity structure and balance. The asymmetry of trade relations between Russia and the European Union is clearly manifested in their commodity structure (Table 37.3). Russia supplies the European Union mainly with raw materials, and imports machinery, equipment and other finished products. In fact, between Russia and the EU there is no intra-industry division of labor and deep production cooperation, which is the core of economic relations in all developed countries. As a result, export-import flows are weakly connected with each other, chronically do not coincide in value and are subject to sharp fluctuations due to changes in the current situation - world prices for raw materials, cycle phases, etc.

Table 37.3

Compiled according to: Standard International Commodity Classification (SITC). Food - sec. 0 and 1; raw materials (except for energy carriers) - sections 2 and 4; energy carriers - sec. 3; chemical goods - sec. 5; industrial goods - sec. 6 and 8; machines, equipment and vehicles- sec. 7; unclassified goods - Sec. nine.

Sources: Eurostat. external trade. 1990. No. 8/9; 1995, no. 8/9; External and Intra-European trade. Statistical Yearbook 1958-1996; Briefing No 22. Statistical Annex on Enlargement (5th update) // European Parliament. Secretariat Working Party Taskforce Enlargement. Luxembourg, 1999. 6 July. P. 59; Russia. EU bilateral trade and trade with the EU. P. 5-8. URL: http://ec.europa.eu/com/trade/issues/bilateral/countries/russia/index.en.

Russia's exports to the EU are almost 2/3 raw materials. Moreover, its lion's share falls on energy carriers. The dynamics and structure of Russian exports to the EU countries almost completely depend on the dynamics of Russian oil and gas supplies. The significant increase in the share of these goods in the total value of Russian exports (from 35% in 1998 to 67% in 2006) is the result not so much of the increased volumes of deliveries as of the rise in prices. During 1999-2005 the physical volume of exports of crude oil from Russia to the "far abroad" countries increased by 85%, while prices tripled. Similar situation developed in the trade in petroleum products. Although the figures given apply to all foreign countries except CIS members, they accurately reflect the trends in Russia's trade relations with the European Union, since its member states buy almost all of Russia's gas exports and approximately 90% of its oil and oil products exports.

Other items of Russian export to the EU are various types of raw materials and products of the initial stages of their industrial processing: ferroalloys, cast iron, some types of rolled products, steel sheets, copper, nickel and aluminum, plywood, round timber, fertilizers, etc. Prices for most of these goods have also increased by 2-3 times over the past 6-7 years, stimulating their export to the EU countries. The last place in Russian exports is occupied by machinery and equipment. Their value increased from $0.5 billion in 1994 to $1.2 billion in 2006 (1.2% of the total value of exports to the EU). Russia exports these goods to the EU countries 8 times less than Singapore, and almost 10 times less than Turkey.

Data on counter deliveries of industrial goods (goods classes 5-8 according to the SITC) give a clear idea of ​​the comparative competitiveness of Russian and Western European industry. For 2000-2006 Russian export specified goods to the EU countries increased from 13.5 to 20.2 billion euros, or 1.5 times. Their exports from the EU to Russia increased from $18.5 billion to $63.5 billion, or 3.4 times. Our country's liability in trade with the EU in industrial goods increased from 5.0 to 43.3 billion euros, or almost 9 times. The situation is even worse in trade in cars and transport equipment. In 2000, the value of their exports from Russia to the EU was 1074, in 2006 - 1204 million euros (an increase of 12%). During the same time, the value of their imports increased from 8,381 to 33,600 million euros (an increase of 4 times).

Given that world prices for oil and other raw materials may decline in the long term, Russia needs to radically improve the quality and expand the range of industrial exports. The solution of this problem should become one of the key directions of the national foreign economic strategy.

Russia's imports from EU countries increased in 1993-1998. faster than Russian exports. But after the 1998 financial crisis, it almost halved. The sharp depreciation of the ruble against the dollar and European currencies worsened the competitive positions of European manufacturers and created favorable conditions for the revival of domestic industry. If during 1992-1996. share of imports in commodity resources retail increased from 23 to 52%, then in 1999 it fell to 36%. But then the trend changed again. The economic recovery that began in the fall of 1999 stimulated domestic demand (industrial and consumer) for high-quality goods, which the domestic industry could not satisfy. Imports began to grow again, in 2005-2007. its share in the commodity resources of the retail trade rose to 45-47%. This means that the effect of substitution of imports by domestic products, caused by the devaluation of the ruble, has come to naught, while Russia's positions in the Western European market have not strengthened at all.

The commodity structure of Russian imports from EU countries has not undergone significant changes since the early 1990s. Its main items remain machinery, industrial equipment, vehicles and various consumer goods, mainly durables - refrigerators, televisions, washing machines, etc. In general, these categories account for approximately 70% of Russian imports. The only significant change in its structure was the reduction in the share of food. If in the early 1990s it was 20-22%, then in 2005-2006. - only 8%.

foreign trade balance. Russia constantly has a positive balance in trade with the EU. In the 1990s, it fluctuated within the range of 8-12 billion dollars. After 2000, the balance grew rapidly; its amount exceeded $450 billion. The continuous inflow of export earnings contributed to the accumulation of gold and foreign exchange reserves Central Bank RF ($550 billion in June 2008) and an increase in the Stabilization Fund (RUB 3,850 billion, or about $160 billion at the beginning of 2008).

However, Russia's surplus is likely to decrease in the future. Both the stabilization of world oil prices (although there are different forecasts on this score) and the resumption of the recovery of the Russian economy can lead to this. It will be accompanied by an increase in domestic demand for goods produced in the EU countries, as well as for domestic raw materials and semi-finished products. Russia will experience increasing difficulties in exporting raw materials, as export quotas are already very high. In 2006, the share of exports in production was: for oil - 52%, for oil products - 47%, for round timber - 61%. This also applies to mineral fertilizers, cellulose, sheet steel.

Trade policy. In general, the EU customs regime applied to Russian goods should be assessed as favorable. Energy carriers and other types of raw materials, which make up 60-70% of the value of Russian exports, are not subject to duties at all. Back in January 1993, the EU extended the regime of general preferences to Russia. Middle level customs tariffs applied to Russian goods is approximately 4%. However, Russia is not yet able to take advantage of the liberal customs regime due to the low competitiveness of its industry. The share of our country in industrial imports of EU countries is slightly more than 1%.

Despite this, in the 1990s, the European Commission and the EU Council applied anti-dumping legislation to Russian manufactured goods in its worst form - under discriminatory rules introduced against countries with state foreign trade during the Cold War. All this time, Moscow insisted on changing the rules of the EU anti-dumping policy. In the spring of 1998, Russia was excluded from the list of countries with state trade. In 2002, the European Union officially recognized the market nature of the Russian economy.

Since then, the same anti-dumping rules and procedures have been applied to Russian exporters as to manufacturers from the US, Japan and other developed countries. This somewhat improved the position of domestic companies in trade disputes, but did not rule out the possibility of anti-dumping sanctions. But as long as Russia is not a member of the WTO, its companies can only challenge them in the EU Court of Justice, which, by definition, cannot be a neutral arbitrator.

The main source of trade disputes between Russia and the EU in the coming years will be competition not on the European, but on the Russian market. The average level of Russian import tariffs in relation to goods imported from EU countries is kept at the level of 13-14%. EU criticizes measures taken Russian government in order to protect the domestic market and support domestic exporters. At the same time, he supports Russia's intention to join the WTO, hoping that this will lead to further liberalization of its foreign economic policy. However, the proposed dates for Russia's entry have been postponed more than once. Now they depend on what will be the choice of Russia - to enter independently or as part of a customs union, together with Belarus and Kazakhstan.

The economic crisis has caused a reduction in the volume of trade between Russia and the European Union. For 10 months of 2009, Russian exports fell by 46%, and imports from EU countries - by 39.8% compared to the same period in 2008. The trade surplus has almost halved. Therefore, the immediate task of foreign economic policy in relations with the EU will be a return to the previously achieved volume of trade. At the same time, it is necessary to start solving two strategic tasks. The first is the modernization of the economy (especially industry) and its radical restructuring. sectoral structure. The second is to increase competitiveness Russian goods both domestically and in foreign markets. This will allow Russia to change the model of participation in the international division of labor, move from the exchange of raw materials for finished products to international industrial cooperation and, consequently, to the exchange of one finished product for another.

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• Introduction
• Chapter 1. Theoretical aspects of foreign trade and foreign trade policy of the state
• Chapter 2. Analysis of foreign trade policy Russian Federation
• Conclusion
• Bibliographic list

Introduction

Modern world trade characterized not only by the growth dynamics of its physical volume, but also by a wide variety of commodity structure, directions and principles of product sales in foreign markets. Entering the foreign market, in addition to possessing information about the conditions for interstate and national regulation of export-import flows, is associated with the study of possible forms and methods for implementing a particular type.

Foreign economic activity is one of the main directions of development of many modern states, a source of goods, the production of which is impossible within the country, as well as income from export-import operations. For many countries where, for certain reasons, there are no production processes, FEA is the only way to provide yourself with the necessary goods.

The foreign trade policy of the state is the most important part of the economic course of the country, this is what determined the relevance of the chosen topic control work. It should also be taken into account that foreign trade policy is one of the areas of fiscal activity related to the regulation of volumes, commodity structure and geographical orientation of export-import trade flows.

The purpose of this test is to study the theoretical aspect of the concepts of foreign trade and foreign trade policy, as well as to analyze the foreign trade policy of Russia and the foreign trade statistics of the Russian Federation.

foreign trade import

Chapter 1. Theoretical aspects of foreign trade and foreign trade policy of the state

The main form of international economic relations is international trade, which includes trade not only in physical goods, but also various services(transport, financial, tourism, etc.) States and state formations, empires and principalities have been linked by trade relations since ancient times. The problems of international trade have been of interest to scientists and politicians for a long time. Naturally, various theories arose, explaining from the position of the corresponding time period reasons for the development of foreign trade relations, reasons for the interaction of economic entities, links between national economies. World economy: Textbook for universities / Pod. Ed. Prof. Yu.A. Shcherbanin. - M.: UNITY_DANA, 2012.- S. 241

International (foreign) trade is the main and most ancient form of international economic relations and represents the exchange of goods and services between different states, developing on the basis of the international division of labor and formed in the 19th century. world market. International trade is characterized by the categories of "export" and "import" of goods. World economy: O.V. Kornienko St. Petersburg: 2009. - S. 7

Under the conditions of an open economy and liberalization of foreign trade, foreign competition plays the role of a factor that reduces the level of concentration in the industry, where there is a monopoly power of market agents, and the degree of market imperfection also decreases. Thus, from the point of view of the development of a competitive environment, the presence of foreign participants in the national market is desirable, since it reduces the monopoly power of the national producer. The height of barriers to entry into the industry depends on the rate of import tariffs - the lower the import tariff, the lower the barriers to entry into the industry for a foreign competitor. Consider how you can evaluate the results of using various kinds tariff and import quota.

Measuring well-being in an open economy has the following feature: one can measure well-being on a global scale, or one can limit oneself to the scale of a national economy. In the latter case, tariffs and subsidies will have conflicting welfare effects if there is imperfect competition in the domestic market and domestic firms in a closed economy received economic profit. Under these conditions, the import tariff leads, on the one hand, to an increase in the equilibrium price and a reduction in consumer gain, on the other hand, an increase in sales and profits of the domestic firm. There is a possibility that the increase in welfare due to the increase in the import tariff - due to the increase in the profits of the domestic producer - will outweigh the reduction in consumer gain due to the price increase. If this happens, then we will deal with the optimal tariff, i.e. the tariff will lead to an increase in the welfare of the country. Thus, in markets with imperfect competition, the optimal import tariff may take on a non-zero value. This applies to other forms as well. state regulation foreign economic activity.

Thus, from the point of view of well-being in the national economy, society as a whole may be interested in non-zero barriers to foreign competition.

Foreign trade policy is an important component of sectoral regulation. Import-export flows, dumping, tariffs, subsidies and quotas have a significant impact on the development of markets within the country and on the formation of their structure.

International trade generated by comparative advantages in different countries and allowing the use of specialization and increase efficiency, leads to an increase in overall welfare. Any restrictions placed on exports/imports reduce production efficiency and impair economic situation countries using them. The history of foreign trade policy contradicts such a simplified interpretation of liberalism and protectionism in foreign economic relations.

Practice shows that in a number of cases the use of export/import tariffs and quotas can be justified when domestic producers are confronted on the world market by competitors with monopoly power. The state in this case may seek to improve public welfare either by limiting the monopoly power of foreign firms in the domestic market, or by helping domestic producers acquire/strengthen monopoly power in foreign markets.

In the first case, the state uses elements of protectionism to increase the competitiveness of domestic producers in relation to foreign competitors with cost advantages. State regulation instruments can be either import tariffs or import quotas. The main problem of regulation is to achieve a compromise between the interests of consumers, producers and state budget. In the second case, the state relies on export promotion to increase the profits of domestic producers, using export subsidies. The effectiveness of such a policy is determined by the ratio of the amount of subsidies and the growth of exporters' profits. Consider the problems associated with the implementation of the policy of protectionism and import substitution, if any:

Dominant foreign firm in the domestic market;

oligopoly in international trade. Gogoleva T.N. World Economy Trends theoretical analysis. Tutorial, Voronezh., 2003 - S. 16

Foreign trade-trade of any country with other countries, consisting of paid import (import) and paid export (export) of goods.

Export includes:

1) export of goods manufactured (produced and processed) in the given country;

2) export of raw materials and semi-finished products for processing abroad under customs control with subsequent return;

3) re-export - the export of goods previously imported from abroad, including goods sold at international auctions, commodity exchanges, etc.;

4) temporary export abroad of national goods (to exhibitions, fairs) with subsequent return or export of previously imported foreign goods (to auctions, exhibitions, fairs);

5) export of products in the order of direct production relations, as well as deliveries within the framework of TNCs.

Import includes:

1) import from abroad of goods, technologies for sale on the importer's domestic market, as well as receiving paid services from a foreign importer for industrial and consumer purposes;

2) import of raw materials, semi-finished products, assemblies, parts for processing in a given country and subsequent export abroad;

3) re-import - return import from abroad of previously exported national goods;

4) temporary importation of goods to international exhibitions, fairs, auctions;

5) import of products within the framework of TNCs.

Foreign trade is characterized by the following indicators:

1) trade turnover (total volume of trade) equal to the sum of exports and imports;

2) trade balance (net exports), equal to the difference between exports and imports;

3) the commodity structure of exports and imports, which is the ratio of commodity groups in world exports and imports (there are over 20 million types of goods in the world);

4) the geographical structure of exports and imports, which is the distribution of trade flows between individual countries and their groups, distinguished either on a territorial or organizational basis.

The study of the commodity structure of foreign trade is carried out on the basis of the Harmonized System for the Description and Coding of Goods that are the Subject of Trade.

The Classifier is also used for world trade statistics.

goods by enlarged economic groupings.

There are value and physical volume of foreign trade.

The value of foreign trade is calculated for a certain period of time in current (changing) prices, indicating current exchange rates.

The physical volume of foreign trade is calculated in constant prices and is used for the purpose of analysis, comparison, study of the dynamics of foreign trade activity. Traded goods-- goods that can move between various countries(Table 1).

Table 1. Incentivestoforeign trade activities

Non-tradable goods are goods that are consumed in the same country where they are produced and do not move between countries.

Differences between tradable and non-tradable goods:

* prices for traded goods are determined by the ratio of supply and demand in the world market and are influenced by supply and demand for them both domestically and abroad; prices for non-tradable goods are determined by the ratio of supply and demand in the national market;

* maintaining a balance of domestic demand and supply for tradable goods is not as important as for non-tradable goods, since the lack of domestic demand can be compensated by an increase in demand from abroad, and the lack of domestic supply by an increase in the supply of foreign goods; for non-tradable goods, maintaining an internal balance of supply and demand is critical;

* the dynamics and level of domestic prices for traded goods follows the dynamics and price levels in other countries; domestic prices for non-tradable goods may differ significantly from the prices of other countries, and the change does not lead to a change in foreign prices for such goods.

Aggregate demand is the amount of production of goods that consumers are willing to collectively purchase at the current price level. Aggregate demand is presented from within the country and from abroad. It consists of the purchase of goods by enterprises, people, government, domestic investment and export of goods abroad.

Aggregate supply is the volume of production of goods that producers are willing to collectively offer to the market at the current price level. Aggregate supply is provided from within any country and from abroad. It consists of domestic production of goods and their imports from abroad.

The distribution of benefits from foreign trade between individual countries largely depends on how domestic prices change under the influence of prices on world commodity markets. Of two countries, the one where prices have changed the most usually wins. This is the so-called benefit distribution rule, according to which the benefits of foreign trade are distributed in direct proportion to price changes in both countries. If in country A relative prices have changed compared to world prices by X%, and in country B by Y%, then

Country A Gain / Country B Gain = X% / Y%. World economy: textbook / T.E. Korchagin.- Ed. 2e, add. And a reworker. - Rostov n / a: Phoenix, 2008 - P.142

The economic efficiency of foreign trade activity is determined in general view the fact that the need of the national economy for products is satisfied not at the expense of its domestic production, but at the expense of the costs of manufacturing other (export) goods, for the currency proceeds from the sale of which import goods necessary for the country are purchased.

If the cost of domestic production necessary products, scheduled for receipt on import, are more costs for the production of export goods, then such a foreign trade exchange is economically beneficial. The difference between these costs is economic effect foreign trade, and the quotient from their division - economic efficiency. The effect is positive - trade is profitable. Therefore, when assessing the effect of the development of foreign trade relations of the country, it is advisable to take into account its manifestations in the following areas:

1) budget - due to the inflow of customs payments from the export (import) of goods and services; increase in tax payments of export-oriented enterprises;

2) production - due to the modernization of the technological and production base (when importing equipment);

3) social - by increasing employment while increasing export production.

As a result, the productivity and competitiveness of production increase, economic growth is observed, the needs of the population are more fully satisfied, and the prestige of the country in the world economy is growing. "Methodological support for the analysis of the country's foreign trade relations" Russian Foreign Economic Bulletin No. 3-2014 http://www.rfej.ru/rvv/id/C0039CCAF

Chapter 2. Analysis of the foreign trade policy of the Russian Federation

The Russian economy faced a crisis of growth sources back in 2012-2013. against the backdrop of stabilization in oil prices: external demand was no longer growing, but internal source growth - productivity - did not work because of the lack of investment associated with institutional constraints. The foreign policy confrontation in 2014 led to a reduction in foreign trade, devaluation, an outflow of capital and household deposits, a further drop in investment, and suppression of consumption: economic growth slowed to less than 1% in the first half of the year, while inflation accelerated to 8%. If in the III-IV quarters, GDP growth remains at the level of the II quarter, then the economy will show a zero result for the year, Natalia Akindinova from the HSE Development Center shared her calculations at the ANCEA conference.

Stagnation over the next two years is the most optimistic scenario, assuming the lifting of sanctions in the first half of 2015. “This is a necessary condition to restore ties with the global economy, but not enough for growth – changes are needed,” Akindinova says.

Maintaining sanctions will lead to a recession in 2015 and 2016. The outflow of capital will continue with the accelerated depreciation of the ruble, the shortage of resources will exacerbate the decline in investment (up to 5% against 3% in 2014), and increased inflation will lead to a fall in real incomes of the population. The budget will not be able to return to the policy of raising wages, their indexation, as in 2015, will be below inflation. The decline in consumption and investment will be compounded by problems with commodity exports (non-commodity exports began to decline in 2012) due to the technology embargo. In 2015, GDP may decline by 1.6%, in 2016 - by another 0.3%. If oil prices also fall (from $100 to $85 per barrel on average annually), then the decline will reach 2.1% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016, Akindinova calculated.

The continuation of the confrontation will lead to increased state intervention in the economy and attempts to compensate for the consequences of sanctions with administrative measures (price controls, capital controls), and may also cause a redistribution of property in favor of state-owned companies, Akindinov does not exclude. Severing ties with foreign contractors will lead to higher costs, as in the late USSR, she compares.

The economic shock came at a time when the consumer factor economic growth already exhausted, and the investment one has not yet begun to work, says Dmitry Belousov from the CMASF: “And without sanctions, we hit very hard. And now if the growth in 2015 is 0%, that's very, very cool.”

All Russian issuers are perceived as representatives of a country under sanctions, and it is impossible to understand in advance what the terms of loans will be and whether they are possible, says Natalia Orlova from Alfa-Bank. Informal "soft sanctions" are the main problem, she adds: "There is a huge zone of uncertainty." Transactions from or to Russian banks can now take up to six days, Orlova says. Restriction of access not only to the debt, but also to the money market led to a crisis in dollar liquidity, a second wave of devaluation and an increase in interest rates.

“The withering away of credit as a source of investment financing will mean that their decline in 2015 will be, although not very large (2.5%, as in January-August 2014), but “more malignant,” Belousov believes: “ This year it is still situational, and next year, I’m afraid, it will be much more fundamental.” Enterprises will start saving on wages, the reduction in real incomes will increase the credit burden on the population, which already at the beginning of 2014 exceeded 21% of income (against 16% in 2008): if the population has to return more than it will borrow, a decline is possible retail trade, says Belousov. “Here are the two halves of the critical mass: minus investment, minus trade turnover – and with an uncertain, but hardly good situation with exports and imports, we will get a slight minus in GDP,” he says.

Russia itself suffers from retaliatory sanctions, Natalya Volchkova from CEFIR concluded. The embargo on food imports not only launched a new wave of inflation - in 2014, according to Akindinova's calculations, it added 1.1 percentage points to inflation; in 2015, according to Orlova's calculations, up to 1.5 p.p., which is equivalent to supply contraction food products by 5%. It will not be possible to fully compensate for the failure, Volchkova believes: food imports from the countries that fell under the sanctions will fall by 70-90%, from other countries it will grow by only 10-50%. According to her calculations, the adopted embargo is tantamount to raising the tariff from less than 10% to more than 200%. Russia's real GDP losses from this embargo will amount to 0.6%, while for the countries of Europe and the USA the effect is close to zero, and the countries Latin America and Belarus is a winner.

The consequences of Russian anti-sanctions are rising prices, a decrease in household consumption and the welfare of the economy as a whole, Volchkova summarizes: “When they talk about import substitution, it is very surprising: these sanctions do not do anything that could support the expansion of production.” The basis of import substitution is the purchase of equipment, but the exchange rate policy does not contribute to this, and the Ministry of Industry and Trade promised to increase duties on the import of goods of machine-building, metallurgical and transport industries. “I tend to view these results as a model of the failure of economic policy,” Volchkova sums up. According to Akindinova, an attempt to reduce economic dependence on the outside world will lead to limiting Russia's already weak involvement in global value chains, further preserving the technological gap. http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/34286301/dva-goda-recessii#ixzz3G1cAYfA4 " The Russian economy is facing a two-year recession

Conclusion

In this work, the goal was to study theoretical aspects foreign trade and foreign trade policy of the state. The current state of foreign trade of our state was also studied.

Foreign trade is the total volume of a country's trade with other countries, which consists of imports and exports, characterized by a certain structure of exports and imports in a certain ratio of commodity groups and which has a certain geographical distribution between individual countries.

State regulation is a complex set of public services methods, methods and tools of influencing economic relations between countries in order to increase the competitiveness of domestic producers in relation to foreign competitors, who have great cost advantages. The problem of state regulation is to reach a compromise between consumers, producers and the budget.

The current state of Russia's foreign economic trade is unfavorable. The imposition of sanctions for political reasons led to negative consequences for the economy of our country - a reduction in foreign trade, an acceleration of inflation, and a slowdown in economic growth. In addition to the decline in non-commodity exports, 2041 is marked by a decline in commodity exports, which may be even deeper due to the continuous annual decline in oil prices.

The food embargo has led to a huge decline in foreign trade, as food imports from countries that are on the sanctions list fell by 70-90%, while imports from other countries are forecast to grow by only 10-50%.

Bibliographic list

1. Gogoleva T.N. World economy Trends in theoretical analysis. Tutorial. - Voronezh: Publishing House of VSU, 2003. - 165 p.

2. World economy: O.V. Kornienko Ed. Peter, St. Petersburg: 2009. - 256 p.

3. World economy: textbook / T.E. Korchagin.- Ed. 2e, add. And a reworker. - Rostov n / a: Phoenix, 2008 - 267 p.

4. World economy: Textbook for universities / Under. Ed. Prof. Yu.A. Shcherbanin. - M.: UNITY_DANA, 2012.-519 p.

5. http://www.rfej.ru/rvv/id/C0039CCAF "Methodological support for the analysis of the country's foreign trade relations" Russian Foreign Economic Bulletin No. 3-2014

6. http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/34286301/dva-goda-recessii#ixzz3G1cAYfA4 “The Russian economy is facing a two-year recession”

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Basic theories of international trade. The essence and role of foreign trade in the country's economy. Foreign trade policy of Russia. The possibility of developing the country's foreign trade policy in the context of the globalization of world trade. Trade policy instruments.

Trade between countries is carried out at world prices. They are based on international value. This means that the socially necessary international expenditures of labor find social recognition on the world market. A country with production costs higher than international loses in foreign economic relations, and vice versa.

The price in the world market is formed on market value goods and the world standard of its quality. However, in practice, the law of value in the world market is not realized in its pure form. The price of a product is influenced by many factors: foreign trade and currency restrictions, the policy of TNCs, exchange rates, exchange speculation, etc. But here, too, the law of value as a trend affects international exchange as a certain regulator of a market economy.

It must be borne in mind that the object of trade in the world market is not the products of the entire country, but only individual goods that make their way to the international market as a result of success in the most intense competition for lower production costs and high quality exported goods.

In the world market, the principle of equal profit for equal capital, which is one of the most important in the formation of prices in national markets, ceases to operate. World prices and profits in the world market are formed not by averaging national labor costs, but on the basis of averaging the labor costs of producers of goods participating in international trade.

The balance of payments is the result of all foreign economic transactions of the country and expresses the ratio of net changes in monetary requirements and obligations of the country in relation to the rest of the world over a certain period of time.

The most common approach to determining the balance of payments is to define it as the state of the sum of actual payments received by a country from abroad and the sum of payments made by it abroad for a certain period of time (usually a year).

With an active balance of payments, the country receives more payments from abroad than it paid itself, with a passive one, on the contrary.

The revenue part of the balance of payments includes receipts from foreign trade, chartering ships, investments abroad, income from foreign tourism, foreign exchange and credit transactions, etc. Accordingly, the same items are included in the expenditure part of the balance of payments.

The most important component balance of payments-trade balance. In him

the country's receipts and expenditures for exports, imports and re-exports are reflected.

Export - export of goods, works and services outside the state, import - import.

The ratio of imports and exports is called the trade balance or net exports.

The trade balance reflects the movement of goods, services, non-trade payments, etc.

The state of the balance of payments has a significant impact on the exchange rate. Both the balance of payments and the exchange rate in a concentrated form give an idea not only of the external economic situation of the country, but also of the state of its domestic economy.

One of the most important concepts of foreign trade is currency convertibility. Convertible are called currencies that are freely exchanged for other national currencies.

Existing species convertibility are divided into two conditional groups: full and partial convertibility. Full convertibility means the absence of any restrictions for national and foreign owners of the currency of a given country on its import - export or transfer abroad when making any transactions at any time. This form of convertibility was characteristic of the gold standard period.

Partial convertibility indicates the presence of certain currency restrictions that apply to subjects, objects and convertibility zones.

The main condition contributing to the introduction of currency convertibility is the balance of current payments, in other words, the country should not have a balance of payments deficit. Convertibility requires the greatest openness of the national economy, the unhindered movement of goods and the determination of the price level mainly under the influence of supply and demand. At the same time, the influence of the market mechanism on the formation of domestic and world prices should be equivalent in

largely predetermine the same trends in their dynamics and the impossibility of significant long-term differences in the levels of these prices.

Development of foreign economic policy and regulation foreign economic relations are the exclusive function of the state. The goal of the foreign economic policy of any country is to protect and implement national economic interests, solve foreign economic problems on a mutually beneficial economic basis, ensure economic security countries.

There are two options for foreign trade policy:

1 Free trade (free trade) - when the state refuses to protect domestic producers.

2. Protectionism - when the state protects domestic producers from dumping by foreign producers. Dumping is the sale of goods at a price below cost.

State protectionism is a system of relations that the state enters into as a spokesman for the interests of the national economy with internal and external economic entities regarding the creation and maintenance of the best conditions for the development of the national economy (in general), ensuring the sovereignty of economic development, maintaining and improving the country's position in the world economy.

It is necessary to distinguish between the narrow and broad meaning of the concept of "protectionism". In a narrow sense, protectionism is limited to the sphere of trade and is aimed at protecting national producers in the domestic market.

In a broad sense, protectionism is a system protective measures, covering the entire process of reproduction and aimed at realizing long-term national economic interests before foreign economic expansion.

In the framework of the policy of protectionism, the state protects broad public interests. Defending the economic interests of the nation, protectionism is an institutional regulator of the immunity of the national economy.

State protectionism is carried out in three directions:

1) to prevent an existing or potential threat to national economic interests from external forces - defensive or passive protectionism;

2) to create especially favorable conditions for the accumulation of domestic capital in order to accelerate the pace of economic growth and give stability to the entire national economy - active protectionism;

3) to strengthen the competitive opportunities of national entrepreneurs and enter the world market - offensive protectionism.

When developing foreign economic policy, it should be taken into account that protectionism and free trade are two interrelated contradictory processes in market conditions, in the development of which two trends can be distinguished.

The first is the struggle between protectionism and free trade in the same period. In this case, two participants in this struggle can be traced - large commercial and financial capital with the protection of free trade and productive capital, which is interested in protecting domestic producers from foreign competition.

The second trend is the struggle of these two tendencies (protectionism and free trade) over time. The bottom line is that when domestic production is just gaining strength, it is interested in implementing a protectionist economic policy. But as domestic production accumulates and grows, there is an interest in the free market.

The leading countries are interested in free trade. In practice, the policy of free trade for economically developed countries is a continuation of the policy of protectionism. Developed countries have had a long period of tough protectionism in their history. It should be noted that even now they are pursuing a selective policy of protectionism and tough trade (ensuring defense capability or national security, protecting young and weak industries from dumping, etc.).

In the implementation of protectionism in foreign economic policy, the state uses a whole system of economic institutions (benefits and restrictions, tariffs, duties, quotas, licenses, state legislation), determines the order of economic relations between economic entities and foreign countries.

1. Importance of foreign trade for the national economy. Foreign trade is the interaction of a country with foreign countries regarding the movement of goods and services across national borders.

Foreign trade allows the state:

• a) receive additional income from the sale of national goods and services abroad;
• b) saturate the domestic market;
• c) overcome the limited national resources;
• d) increase labor productivity by specializing in world trade in the supply of certain products to the world market.

Foreign trade is characterized by the concepts of export and import: the first involves the export of goods and services abroad and the receipt of foreign currency in return, and the second - their import from abroad with the appropriate payment. Export, like investment, increases a country's aggregate demand and sets in motion the foreign trade multiplier, creating primary, secondary, tertiary, etc. employment. An increase in imports limits this effect due to the outflow of financial resources abroad.

Foreign trade is organized on the principles developed in 1947 and enshrined in the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT). In 1996 it was replaced by the World trade Organization(WTO), which considers foreign trade more broadly, including the exchange of commodity services and the sale and purchase of intellectual property.

2. Profitability of foreign trade. The theory of comparative advantage. Export in foreign trade, according to A. Smith, becomes profitable if the costs of producing goods within the country are much lower than those of other states. In this case, goods produced by the national economy have absolute advantages over foreign competitors and can be easily sold abroad. On the other hand, no state can have an absolute advantage in all manufactured goods, therefore, it is necessary to import those that are more expensive domestically and cheaper abroad. Then at the same time there is a direct benefit from both exports and imports.

Based absolute advantages A. Smith D. Ricardo formulated the theory of comparative costs (advantages), according to which, when determining the profitability of foreign trade, one should compare not the absolute, but the relative effect, and not the costs themselves, but their ratios. At the same time, it should be taken into account that, by producing certain goods in conditions of limited resources, the country is deprived of the opportunity to produce others that are no less necessary for it, therefore, in accordance with the theory of comparative advantages of D. Ricardo, a situation is quite possible in which it is profitable for the country to import goods, even if their domestic production is cheaper. In this case, A. Smith's theory of absolute costs becomes a special case of the theory of comparative costs.

D. Ricardo's theory of comparative costs modern conditions supplemented by the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, named after two Swedish economists, who proved that countries tend to export not only those goods that have absolute and relative advantages, but also in the production of which relatively excess factors of production are intensively used, and import goods for the production of which in the country has a shortage of factors. Unlike A. Smith and D. Ricardo, their modern followers believe that both sides benefit from foreign trade - both this country and the rest of the world.