In 10-15 years, artificial intelligence will leave millions of people without work, experts warn

From the point of view of the employer, computers are more profitable than people: they are cheaper and work more efficiently, photo: Robohunter
Computers are already doing some tasks much better than humans today. Experts say that in just 10-15 years, artificial intelligence will force people out of many professions and leave millions of people unemployed.

What professions are under the threat of extinction, whether the power of computers is inevitable and how it threatens humanity, the "Country" understood.

Robot vs Human

The monopolization by artificial intelligence (AI) (scientifically correct name is "deep neural networks") of all spheres of human life is no longer a futurological idea, but economic calculations. Leading scientific research warns that the world will face appalling levels of unemployment in the coming decades. This can provoke riots, exacerbate social inequality, poverty and other social problems.

Thus, according to Oxford University, over the next 20 years in the United States every second workplace will be automated – 47% of workers will replace machines. In China - 77%.

The Youth Advocacy Group of Australia (FYA) warns that around 70% of young people in Australia are now in jobs where the impact of automation will be "radical". That is, in fact, in twenty years, their knowledge and professional skills will no longer be needed by anyone - computers will perform the same functions for them. The only difference is that the employer will not have to pay salaries to cars, and from it - taxes to the state.

From the point of view of the employer, a robot is more profitable than a person: it does everything faster and cheaper. Moreover, modern AI also knows how to learn. Moreover, if a person can take years to master a new skill, a computer spends seconds on it. Man cannot compete.

“We are approaching the time when machines will surpass humans in almost every field,” said a professor of computational engineering, director of the Institute information technologies Moshe Vardi. “I believe that society needs to face this problem before it rises to its full height. If machines are capable of doing almost everything that humans can do, what will they be left to do?"

Vardy predicts that in 30 years, robots will be able to do almost everything that humans can do. And this will lead to the fact that more than 50% of the inhabitants of the planet will become unemployed, and society will plunge into total procrastination.

According to the International Federation of Robotics, it is the leader in automation in South Korea, where there are 531 robots per 10,000 workers. China is still lagging behind: there are only 49 robots by 10 thousand, but the country ranks first in terms of the rate of increase in robotics units.

Ukraine, however, will not be captured by the automation trend as quickly as the West, experts say, because of relatively cheap labor. In general, in relation to Europe, Ukraine will begin to feel the invasion of computers with a delay of about 10 years. According to experts, the higher it will become average salary in Ukraine, the more employers will prefer robots over people.

Experts reassure: automation is a historically natural process, and humanity has experienced something similar before. In the 18-19 centuries, with the beginning of the industrial revolution, for example, cars first ousted horses from the sphere of transport, but now they can also replace people. ATMs, self-service centers, and more recently, online banking have already replaced a whole army of bank employees. And you need to take it easy.

"There was once such a profession - people who were calculators who counted on arithmometers. Some scientists believe that artificial intelligence appeared when people invented a calculator that could solve the same mathematical problems much faster and better than a person," says Artem Chernodub, Ph.D., AI researcher at Clikque Technology.

The strength of neural networks is that their teacher is the boundless Internet space. Robots can already do more than what they were originally programmed to do.

"Recently, a neural system has developed its own encryption system and taught this system to another neural network. Today, AI already works in such a way that even the architect of this network does not understand how it does it. It changes itself from the inside. It works on the principle of the human brain - therefore it and is called neural," says Boris Tizenhausen, an expert in reputation management.

It was Deep Learning ("Deep Learning" - algorithms that allow AI to self-learn and improve itself without human intervention - Ed.) Reduced the cost of computing, and therefore the cost of the computers themselves. This is now leading to mass automation of professions.

"One gigaflops (a measure of computer performance - the number of mathematical operations that a computing system performs per second, Ed. Note) - now costs about 6 cents, in 2008 it cost about 50 dollars, and in 1997 - about 40 thousand dollars, - leads example Artem Chernodub - Computers have become more powerful and, accordingly, cheaper. A modern mobile phone is more powerful than the most advanced computer was 10 years ago, and it is now available to most people, while a computer 30 years ago was a luxury. Today you can automatically train deep neural networks on large amounts of data, even just 1 terabyte of images, and get from them behavior that is similar to human behavior, and sometimes exceeds its capabilities. Even 10 years ago, this seemed fantastic."

The possibilities of neural networks are really impressive. Their influence is especially noticeable in the direction of chatbots. Take, for example, the Luka startup, which generates dialogues with the characters of various works: after the death of the singer Prince, they created a chat with the musician after analyzing interviews with him in public sources.

Two designs for the same item. The left one is human. The right one is suggested by the computer (Within Enhance program). The most incredible thing is that the design of the computer is more natural and pleasing to the eye. Although AI did not rely on personal experience He just wanted to be as efficient as possible.

Another impressive example is when the artificial intelligence AlphaGo, created by a division of Google, beat the European champion in Go checkers. Go surpasses even chess in complexity, with millions of unpredictable moves.

“Google trained the neural network in the following way: they loaded into it the data of all the games that it was possible to find, and the system gave priority to those moves thanks to which the computer won, and eventually learned to play at the level of an average player,” says Boris Tizenhausen. “Then Google forced this AI to play with another AI. They made millions of moves per second, and in the end, no one won. But playing with each other, they improved. In the end, AlphaGo beat the European Go drafts champion with a score of 5: 0. The champion is upset.

Martin Ford, author of Rise of the Robots, is convinced that automation is unstoppable. "It's part of capitalism - the constant drive to increase productivity," he says. Robotization of production is beneficial to almost everyone, except for workers without degrees, and it is they who will be most affected by mass robotization.

Dying professions

According to experts, almost any profession that is associated with a repeatable algorithm of actions is under the threat of extinction today. Roughly speaking, if you do the same routine work every day from morning to evening, associated with the constant collection, processing and analysis of data, it makes sense to think about changing your profession.

Some positions will disappear altogether, while others will be forced to modernize to meet the new realities of the technological world. "Strana", together with experts, compiled a list of 25 professions that are at risk.

1. Drivers

The development of AI will inevitably affect taxi drivers, and indeed all carriers. In the United States, it is predicted that in 15 years all transport will become automated. Self-propelled vehicles will replace taxi drivers and public transport, excavator operators, truckers, drivers.

Tesla and Google have been testing self-driving cars in the US for a year now. In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, as well as in Singapore, unmanned vehicles have already begun to be used as taxis. And the Russian Federation and Finland are even negotiating the creation of an infrastructure for unmanned communication between the countries.

By 2025, American automakers plan to mass-produce unmanned vehicles for a wide range of customers. They will not have a steering wheel or pedals. What for?

intellectual transport systems(ITS) will help avoid accidents: cars will read information from each other, know about oncoming traffic, and change the trajectory and speed of movement depending on this data. Even a traffic light will not be needed - the cars themselves will see that another car crosses the road and avoid collisions.

Flying car design project. Photo: 3DNews

The only thing hindering the ubiquitous distribution of cars on autopilot so far is the poor condition of the roads. But this obstacle is also temporary. It is possible that soon there will be no need for roads for cars - they will fly through the air. Terrafugia has been working on such a flying car since 2013, now it is being tested. The flight in it will also be controlled by a computer system - the user only needs to indicate the destination.

2. Conductors and controllers

Following the drivers, the conductors will also disappear. In some cities, trains already run on their own, and the fare in them from bank cards is read automatically using phones.

3. Working conveyors

Robots are replacing manual labor in manufacturing. So, Adidas is building a fully automated factory in Germany, where everything from designing clothes to tailoring is done by robots. The production process for a pair of sneakers from start to finish takes about five hours. By comparison, in the current Adidas supply chain in Asia, a similar process could take several weeks. Robots will also be able to quickly create custom-made shoes for a specific client - a significant competitive advantage.

4. Guards

The sphere of security services is also computerized. Concierges, security guards, watchmen will be replaced by person identification systems, which, due to the increased terrorist threats, are already being introduced everywhere at points of large crowds of people. This is convenient and effective: the computer recognizes a person's face and immediately determines whether he has a criminal record, is potentially dangerous or not, or has been seen in contact with criminals. By the way, in this regard, AI will significantly complicate the work of burglars: the computer will instantly determine whether a neighbor or an outsider has entered the entrance.

“Now in Britain, the face recognition system in the subway also connects to a person’s social media accounts, determines whether he is a member of terrorist groups – and if several suspicious people enter the subway at the same time, the system immediately sends a signal to the police,” Boris gives an example Tizenhausen.

5. Salesmen and cashiers

In Seattle, Amazon opened the world's first store without cashiers, sellers and queues. Scanning devices automatically pierce the goods at the exit and withdraw money from the account. This is a real revolution in shopping.

It is based on Just Walk Out technology. It automatically detects when products are removed from the shelves and returned to their place, and forms a virtual shopping cart. On its basis, immediately after the buyer left the store, he receives an invoice.

"All mass professions - such as cashiers, salespeople, resellers, merchandisers, warehouse workers, even waiters - can be automated, which means they will be automated. Go to McDonald's near the Louvre in Paris - very few people work there. Because social the standards are too high, and it's expensive to hire a person to work even at McDonald's, because he has to pay at least 1,600 euros. Therefore, everything is robotized," says Chernodub.

6. Consultants

Today, in the virtual world, they are successfully replaced by chatbots. They provide online shopping advice and help customers solve product problems. Experts do not rule out that special robots will soon appear in stores that will present company products, greet visitors, tell them about the characteristics of the product, showing its images on the screen. By facial expressions and body language, robots will recognize human emotions and respond appropriately to them.

7. Accountants

With an introduction electronic document management there is no need for a huge layer of people who were engaged in paperwork, transferred documents from place to place and entered data into databases. In fact, any person himself will be able to submit declarations, draw up basic documents for opening his own enterprise, for example. A few years ago, firms hired an accountant specifically for this.

8. Finance staff

Here we are talking not only about the banal rearrangement of pieces of paper. Software effectively replaces brokers and traders.

Thus, since 2000, the number of financial employees on Wall Street has decreased by about one-third. Instead, the computer conducts hundreds of thousands of transactions, within a fraction of a second, makes a decision on the purchase and sale based on data that is automatically collected on the market and exchange services. During this time, a person will only have time to sip coffee.

“Already now, on the American stock exchange, 40% of operations to make decisions on buying or selling shares are made by AI. Traders have many special programs that determine trends, analyze quotes on several exchanges at once and build a mathematical model of how they will move on. it is not capable," says Boris Tizenhausen.

9. Translators

In fact, each of us unwittingly contributes to the extinction of this profession: every time you enter text into an online translator, you teach it. If you indicate that a word in a sentence is translated incorrectly, the computer remembers it. With each such correction, he learns, and machine translation becomes more and more perfect. Google began using neural networks for translation at the end of 2016 - the number of errors in translations of texts decreased by 60%.

Now the search giants "Yandex" and Google are testing neural systems with in-depth morphological analysis, which take a radically new approach to the translation of texts. Here's an example: a "translator" was taught to translate from Japanese to English and from Korean to English. Suddenly it turned out that the AI ​​was able to translate directly from Japanese to Korean, although it had not been taught this. The neural network itself created its own translation algorithm, in which the intermediary language (English) was not needed.

Experts assure: over time, the vocabulary of a smartphone will equal that of a human. AI will even be able to create its own language. Humanity will forget what it is language barriers: you will no longer need to spend years studying a foreign language - your smartphone will easily and competently provide simultaneous translation into any language on the planet.

10. Call center operators

Many companies have already replaced call center operators with automated programs that respond to customer complaints and offer them appropriate solutions. If the robot cannot cope with the problem itself, it automatically switches the subscriber to a "live" employee.

11. Programmers and web designers

In the near future, specialties that are now considered intellectual will be recognized as “workers”: programming, web design, 3D design. All this for a person today can easily be done by a machine.

For example, in order to design and manufacture a dental prosthesis, now a dentist must study for many years and obtain the appropriate qualifications, and the manufacture of such a prosthesis is very expensive. But already today, 3D printers can print dentures quickly and cheaply. And soon such specialists will not be needed.

As for the development of sites, according to experts, neural networks will soon learn to independently develop both the layout and design of sites, applications and programs. A person will simply set the parameters he needs.

"Even now, programmers write code differently than programmers did twenty years ago, when you had to remember all the commands by heart. Now the program itself offers the programmer the codes, and he chooses the ones he needs. This will continue to be automated. I think it will come to the point that a person will say: “Siri, write me such and such a program.” And Siri will write,” says Artem Chernodub.

12. Tour guides

AI and today easily determines where we are, gives historical reference, shows pictures and virtual reviews terrain.

"The neural network can provide much more information and adjust to your interests. Targeted content is now coming out on top - Facebook works according to this algorithm, showing what you are interested in, Google, etc. The system understands what you are interested in and presents this is exactly in the vein in which it will be interesting for you to see it. It is clear that the "live" guides will remain, but they will become rather exotic," predicts Boris Tizenhausen.

13. Soldiers

Unmanned aircrafts, drones, security robots, monitoring systems already cope with many tasks much better than a man and even make decisions - to open fire or not, determining the enemy by the form and weapons. In the near future, according to experts, they will begin to replace living soldiers in ground missions as well. Soon, a person will remotely control tanks and aircraft without participating in battles.

Here it is impossible not to recall the autonomous tracked vehicle MAARS (Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System) - this is a robot. In his arsenal - a machine gun, as well as tear, fragmentation, high-explosive and smoke grenades. At the same time, MAARS is capable of not only killing, but also saving - clearing mines and pulling wounded people from the battlefield.

14. Builders

Construction is already partially automated. It is no longer necessary to build a house - it can be printed on a special construction 3D printer. A person chooses the design of the house they like, presses one button and a giant 3D printer prints the necessary blocks of concrete or other material.

WinSun in China has been developing such houses since 2014. And a Shanghai 3D house printer can create ten buildings from construction and industrial waste. The cost of production of one such house is not more than 5 thousand dollars.

15. Food producers

3D printers may also soon take over the mass production of food for humans. By and large, any materials can be loaded into them, and why not do this with edible products. Natural Machines has already presented a similar development. The Foodini 3D printer allows you to load up to five different ingredients into it - you can set necessary program, and the dish will be quickly "printed". The result is still more like fast food, so the chefs of elite restaurants do not have to worry for now.

16. Travel agents

"Five years ago, there were travel agency offices on every corner, but now travel agents have virtually disappeared: they have been replaced by automatic platforms for booking and ordering tickets and places to stay. Those who remain on the market now are mainly focused on older people who do not trust electronic systems payment, but like their clients, they are already living out their lives,” says Boris Tizenhausen.

17. Astronauts

There is a place for robotics in space as well. The robots are already doing the menial work at the station. And the Robonaut2 (R2) robot from NASA and General Motors is already plowing the expanses of the earth's orbit. R2 is capable of operating both inside the ISS and in outer space. And he doesn't need a bulky suit to do it. Subsequently, it is planned that R2 will land on the moon - it is safe and not expensive.

18. Postmen and couriers

Delivery services are already gradually being taken over by drones and other similar devices. From the warehouse - directly to the house, conveniently and quickly.

Medicine, along with defense, are leaders in investment in the development of AI.

For example, the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York has implemented an automatic medical diagnostic system using the Watson supercomputer. He determines the diagnosis more accurately than doctors, and selects the best method of treatment for each individual case. The accuracy of Watson's diagnoses is due to the fact that he studied 600,000 medical research(about 2 million pages of text).

Less complex diseases could soon be diagnosed using mobile phone. London-based startup Your.MD is improving an application for iOS and Android devices that can listen to a person's complaints in text or voice mode and determine his illness.

Robotic surgeons are already performing operations, sewing tissues at the micro level. Instead of stitching, doctors now use robotic staplers. There are also robotic anesthesiologists, since 2013 these systems have been allowed in the United States. Using them instead of the services of a professional anesthesiologist in the US market can save from $450 to $1850 per patient.

20. Pharmacists

Robots have already begun distributing medicines to patients. In San Francisco, the UCSF Medical Center has installed experimental machines in two hospitals that receive an electronic prescription from a doctor, weigh out the correct doses of medicines, pack them into pills and give them to the patient.

Robots can replace nannies and nurses. The Japanese company NEC has developed the PaPeRo robot, which is able to entertain people and care for children and the mentally ill, helping them develop communication skills. The robot can communicate in a natural and pleasant voice, tell jokes, tell fortunes, make riddles, remind you to take medicines, and transmit voice messages from a person to other people whom PaPeRo recognizes by their faces.

22. Fitness trainers

This profession, according to experts, is waiting for a serious transformation. Training is already in many mobile applications a robot is leading - it's cheaper, and online broadcasting can cover an unlimited number of users.

23. Teachers

Now you can get a diploma of any university remotely. One teacher can teach not ten people, how many will fit in the class, but thousands of people at the same time. Experts believe that some kind of natural selection will begin in the industry, and really highly qualified minds who are really valued in a professional environment and have exceptional knowledge will remain teaching.

24. Journalists

Yes, the person who writes this article may also be out of work in a dozen or two years.

Electronic media employees are at risk. The Los Angeles Times, Associated Press, Forbes and other well-known media are already actively using robots today - they create operational financial reports, sports scores and provide weather information. Robots will collect information much faster than journalists, find out "who, what, when, where, how and why", even interview experts and draw up the final information material. Narrative Science predicts that in 15 years, 90% of news reports will be generated automatically.

Of course, we are not talking about columnism and the genre of feature reporting bordering on literature - here, in the subtlety of observations, the skill of conveying lively emotions and the beauty of style, a computer cannot surpass a person. At least for now.

25. Priests

Don't be quick to get angry. Of course, robots will not be able to fully replace the clergy, but partially AI is already being introduced into the church. You don't have to look far for examples: last year, a service for ordering prayers via the Internet was created in Lviv. In addition, for several years now, in order to put a note in the Wailing Wall, it is not at all necessary to go to Jerusalem - you just need to leave your message in the Internet representation of the shrine.

All hope for creativity

Experts insist: only professions associated with monotonous manual labor will disappear, in which there is no creative, intellectual, creative component, and most importantly, the need for purely human empathy.

"Indeed, some professions will disappear, but only those that can be fully automated. Human staff will still be in demand, for example, in the Love and Care industry - those areas where a machine simply cannot replace the component of human warmth and participation. This and the work that volunteers are doing today – caring for the elderly and sick, supporting the victims, helping people with disabilities,” says HR specialist Larisa Bruver.

Brower does not believe that in 15 years we will all be looking for new job. "The work landscape will certainly change, but it will shift towards intellectual and creative work - into areas where even self-learning algorithms will either not be able to show the same performance, or robotization will be artificially limited due to the risk of losing control over the process," says expert.

The more complex and creative a profession is, the less it is threatened by automation. Artists, presenters, designers, actors, showmen, artists - they will remain in demand.

However, today robots have already learned how to create works of art. Andrey Karpaty from Stanford University has created a program into which you can load certain texts, say Shakespeare's sonnets, and it will itself begin to generate texts in the same style. By the same principle, neural networks can already draw pictures in the style of Van Gogh and Picasso, generate music a la Bach. There is even a music album "Neural Defense", the lyrics to which were written by a robot.

How valuable and qualitatively such "creativity" is another question. For those who are inclined towards primitive consumption, there will not be much difference between the work of Mozart and the robot. But can this be considered art?

"Here the question is rather for art critics. But on my own behalf: sometimes you come to the PinchukArtCentre, look at the piece of asphalt exhibited there and think - what kind of nonsense? And then a modern art critic will come up to you and explain that in fact this is art ", - says Artem Chernodub. - But seriously, I think that if paintings by artificial intelligence start to be bought, then this can be considered, if not art, then at least a product."

It is reassuring that the robot can repeat, calculate, copy - but cannot create anything radically new. So far, computer creativity is just imitation.

That is why the demand for human oddity and genius will remain. Scientists, inventors, researchers, creators of art - people who do not create, but create - without them, the development of society, even with total automation of labor, is impossible. In addition, the ubiquitous distribution of robots has a significant plus: against their background, the uniqueness and exclusivity inherent only in humans will be increasingly valued.

“No highly developed artificial intelligence is able to completely replace a person,” says Michio Kaku, an American physicist of Japanese origin. “We actually have much more advantages over machines than we can imagine. Robots have no imaginative thinking, they have no consciousness, intuition.

Therefore, the scientist advises: in order to succeed, you need to develop those abilities that are not available to robots: creativity, imagination, initiative, leadership skills. Much more likely to succeed are those countries that can balance commodity markets and cognitive-creative potential.

But even if you can't draw, sing, write music, and didn't get your doctorate from Harvard, don't panic. Technological progress both kills some professions and creates new ones.

According to the forecasts of scientists from Utrecht University, although labor automation will reduce the number of jobs, it will allow companies to reduce production costs, and at the same time, product prices, which will increase the purchasing power of citizens and create new jobs in other industries.

In addition, human supervision will still be necessary for robots for a long time. There will be a need for the profession of a roboticist - a professional who will train robots and make sure that they do not harm a person.

In any case, we need to learn how to interact with AI. Modern children are easier in this regard - they learn to handle the tablet before they speak. Older people, of course, will be more difficult to relearn. But now is the time to think about whether you want to do what you are doing now for the rest of your life. The main thing is to orient yourself in time and adapt to the new technological reality. Progress can no longer be stopped.

A recent study conducted by scientists at Oxford University showed that some professions that are in demand in our time will no longer be relevant in the coming decades, because all the functions of specialists will be performed by robots. We will talk about 10 professions that will soon be unnecessary.

10. Maintenance staff

Service staff will be made up of robots in 10-20 years

It is in the service sector that robots will first come to replace people. There is nothing to be surprised here - they are more reliable, faster, stronger. Robots do not need to be paid a salary, they do not make mistakes due to inattention and will not be able to due to bad mood to be rude to a client who seemed too picky to them.

Already today, part of the customer service systems is automated. In any major city you can find ATMs, terminals for payment various services, food vending machines, self-service checkouts, automated parking lots. In the last 2 years, even libraries have started laying off their employees and replacing them with robots. So far, this trend has not gained a mass character, but there is no doubt that this is a matter of time.

And what a marvelous invention electronic queues have been that have saved people from constant arguments about who is in front of whom, isn't it?

This is interesting: American giant in the field retail Wal-Mart Stores is building a fully automated warehouse. It is planned to start functioning in 2016.

9. Waiters

Robot waiters will replace people

Restaurants are already open in the world, on the tables in which tablets are installed that take orders from visitors. Waiters just bring dishes to the right table. And in one of the Chinese restaurants, robots are already doing even this today, so there is not a single waiter there.

There is no doubt that in ten years most establishments Catering prefer robots to manpower. Most likely, by that time they will have learned not only to take orders and bring dishes, but even put them on the tables. By the way, after that, chefs will gradually be replaced with robots. Processing products, mixing ingredients in the right proportions and performing other manipulations is not difficult for them. This will help to maintain the quality of cooking at a stable level. high level which customers will be delighted with.

8. Support specialists

Robots in the support service will answer any questions from customers

Calling the support service, we increasingly hear the voice of an answering machine on the other end of the line. If you are interested in one question, they offer to press the "1" button, if the other - the "2" button, and so on. It comes down to the need to contact the operator only in rare cases, because most often an automated answering machine is able to give an exhaustive answer to a question of interest to a person.

It is worth mentioning online consultations on Internet services. Robots were taught to form responses by analyzing the text of the message. For example, if you ask the bank support service a question online about how to unblock a credit card, the system will automatically generate and display necessary information. If the question is not clear, you will be prompted to select the appropriate section. background information by clicking on one of the options.

In the future, such automated systems will appear in almost every office, and it will be very convenient to conduct a dialogue with robots. Perhaps scientists will bring it closer to the level of ordinary human communication. To do this, it is enough to train robots to recognize and analyze human speech. Artificial intelligence systems have already been invented that have approached this bar at arm's length - remember at least the Sirie online assistant on the iPhone.

7. Real estate agents

Real estate agents will soon become redundant

This is interesting: And in 10-15 years, even the presence of a human agent will no longer be mandatory when inspecting real estate. The program will independently answer your questions, and if necessary, even open the locked door of the inspected room. You just need to install a lock on it, which opens automatically when a signal is received via the Internet.

6. Journalists

Journalists will be supplanted by programs with artificial intelligence

Even such creative profession, as a journalist, may become unclaimed. Analysts predict that in 15 years, 9 out of 10 news articles will be generated automatically by computers. Forbes magazine already today uses the services of robotic journalists to create and verify annual reports, and in the Big Ten Network, robots quickly write and publish the latest sports news.

Most copywriters will also have to look for a new job after 2020. Experts are confident that functional programs with artificial intelligence connected to databases with textual materials (laws, works of art, scientific literature) will be able to generate articles in some genres without human intervention. Prototypes of such programs - synonymizers, exist today, but only the quality of the text they create leaves much to be desired.

5. Pharmacists

Robotic pharmacists will produce medicines

The University of San Francisco Medical Center has an experimental robot that creates new drugs.

The day is approaching when leading companies will begin to commercialize pharmaceutical robots. The efficiency and productivity of machines is ten times higher than similar human indicators. Robots will never get tired or make mistakes because of inattention. It is clear why large pharmaceutical companies with a billion-dollar turnover, they see only advantages in replacing people with machines. Therefore, pharmacists will be one of the first to be replaced by robots. This is expected to happen by 2020.

4. Drivers

Robots will replace drivers on the roads

Following Google, other giants of the automotive industry began to develop their systems automatic control vehicles. As soon as two or three of them develop an accessible and easy-to-implement concept, the process of total mechanization will begin in this area. And our children will learn about the profession of a driver only from old films and adult stories.

In 2014, experts tested up to 10 cars that can do without drivers. So, a car from Google Corporation drove over 1 million kilometers along busy US highways without ever getting into an accident. In Australia, 45 "unmanned" vehicles are now being tested.

In replacing drivers automated systems only benefits can be seen. Firstly, they do not get tired and can work without interruption 24 hours a day. Secondly, the elimination of the human factor will help to reduce the number of accidents on the roads by tens or even hundreds of times and, therefore, save millions of lives.

3. Soldiers

Robot soldiers will reduce the number of victims

The military industry is developing by leaps and bounds. Combat systems are constantly being upgraded, regularly surprising us with technological innovations. And the military is increasingly using robots. Unmanned aerial vehicles, remote-controlled anti-aircraft systems, mine-clearing robots and other machines are widely used.

The speed of robotization of the armies of the leading countries will only grow. And this is good news. History shows that people cannot live without conflicts, but robots will at least reduce the number of victims. Another argument in favor of machines is that they will not get tired, will not make mistakes and will not go over to the side of the enemy. And tirelessness makes them ideal soldiers.

2. Teachers

Robot teachers will teach in schools

Teaching is one of the most honored professions today. But in 10-20 years pedagogical universities may be closed as unnecessary. Researchers are constantly working to create intelligent machines that can teach people about specific disciplines. Robots are also taught to interact with people, to conduct a natural dialogue. This helps students understand the material better.

This is interesting: In South Korea, the government has approved a program to introduce robot teachers into the educational process. A machine called Engkey is already teaching children the basics of math, science, grammar and other sciences. Of course, while not everything is perfect for him, but scientists are constantly upgrading the robot. And the company that created Engkey has already received hundreds of orders for similar machines.

1. Doctors

Robotic doctors will perform complex operations

Can you imagine a future without doctors? If not, it's time to start getting used to such a thought. Medicine is developing rapidly, and the gradual robotization of this profession is already gaining momentum. In the last 5 years, thousands of complex operations have been performed by robots that could not be trusted to living people. Machines are more accurate and faster than humans.

Leading clinics practice "remote" operations, in which the surgeon controls the actions of the robot, being in another corner of the globe.

In the near future, any operations will be performed by robots. They will also see patients, diagnose them, vaccinate them and keep medical records.

Total robotization of dozens of areas, according to experts, will occur in the next 15 years. There is no doubt that this will greatly improve the quality of our lives. It will be bad only for people who are forced to master new profession and look for another job.

Researchers and futurologists are divided over whether robots in the future can become a real threat to many professionals in one field or another. Some of them believe that this cannot happen in principle, while others agree that there are a number of professions in which robots can replace humans in the coming decades. Surely no one can know this, it remains only to wait and believe that in twenty years you will not be left without a job.

In 2013, scientists from the University of Oxford conducted one interesting study on this topic. More than 700 professions were selected for the experiment. For each of them, the minimum requirements for three indicators were determined: orientation in the surrounding world, creativity and intelligence. As a result, all professions were divided into two categories: those that, with a probability of more than 80%, can be successfully replaced by robots, and those that certainly cannot be mastered by machines. The second category included the professions of a scientist, engineer, actor, manager, teacher, doctor, social worker and a lawyer. The list of "dangerous" professions turned out to be much wider.

Service staff

The services sector is most under threat. There is nothing surprising here. Robots are more reliable, tougher and stronger. They do not have to pay a salary, they are less likely to make mistakes, and they are not subject to emotional swings. Already today, a significant part of customer service services will be performed by robots, albeit not in the way that most people imagine them to be. In any major city, you can find terminals, food vending machines, automated parking lots and cash desks. Imagine how much money could be saved on the work of waiters, maids, concierges or operators. For example, in the past few years, libraries have begun to fire employees and replace them with robots, and in China there is already a fully automated restaurant. Of course, while this trend is not widespread, but still it exists, and who knows what may happen in the near future.

Drivers

AT last years many giants of the automotive industry are working on the development of perfect unmanned vehicles. There is already a lot of progress in this area, take Google and Tesla cars. There are many advantages to automating vehicle management. Firstly, such systems will be able to work without interruption 24 hours a day, and secondly, they will help eliminate the human factor, which is the cause of thousands of accidents and lost lives.

Sure, self-driving cars are great, but the problem is that millions of drivers around the world could lose their jobs. And it's not just about car drivers. Unmanned ships and aircraft are known to have been successfully tested. Of course, in these cases, it will be much more difficult for the technique to take into account all the factors that affect safe control. So, the professions of pilots and navigators are still out of the risk zone.

Support Specialists

Most often when calling the service technical support we hear the voice of an answering machine making programmed consultations. This helps save a large number of time and resources. The need to contact the operator is extremely rare, because the program is able to independently give comprehensive answers to the most popular questions.

This includes online consultations in various services and online stores. The new robots are algorithms capable of generating responses by analyzing the text of a message. In the future, such systems may appear in most offices. Scientists will be able to bring the dialogue with the robot to the usual human communication. To do this, it is enough to teach the system to recognize and analyze human speech with high accuracy.

Factory workers

Recently, in the Chinese industrial city of Dongguan, the government launched an experiment called "Robot Replaces Humans." 4.2 billion yuan was invested in 505 Dongguan factories to replace 30,000 workers with robots.

In July last year, the People Daily published information about the success of the Chinese company Changying Precision Technology. At one of its factories, 650 employees were replaced by 60 robots. As a result, machines produced three times more parts in a month than highly skilled workers. Moreover, the work was done better, and the percentage of defects was reduced by 20 units. Today, the plant employs only 60 employees, and by 2018 the staff is planned to be reduced to 20 people altogether. If the Dongguan experiment ends successfully, then, most likely, widespread robotization will begin. production processes and millions of Chinese workers will be laid off.

Sellers and cashiers

The sales assistant profession is also under threat. Recently, the Japanese company SoftBank created the Pepper robot, which is able to perceive human emotions and speech. Already in March 2016, in one of the hardware stores, it is planned to replace all salespeople with robots that will independently advise and sell equipment. People will only help the robot in signing the contract, which Pepper is not yet able to do on its own.

As for cashiers, here the situation is even more deplorable. According to statistics, robots will be able to replace them by 97%. Machines will be able to do simple mechanical work much faster and for longer. Now this trend is already beginning to gain momentum, especially in Western countries.

Robot cashier in a South Korean cinema

Journalists

It is hard to believe that such a creative profession as a journalist can also be unclaimed. The advent of the Internet has destroyed numerous newspapers and publications. Analysts predict that in ten years, 90% of all news articles will be generated automatically. Forbes magazine is already using robotic journalists to produce its annual reports, and Big Ten has long been using machines to write sports news.

In the near future, the services of copywriters may also remain irrelevant. Experts are confident that functional algorithms with artificial intelligence, which will also be synchronized with various text sources, will be able to independently generate articles in various genres.

Ecology of knowledge. Robots. Oxford University researchers admit the estimates aren't entirely accurate, but they believe it's a picture of what the future might look like. According to the database, 14 out of 20 jobs are at risk of being automated.

So what kind of work is still difficult for robots? Any that requires intelligence, communication and constant interaction with people. What is the easiest position for a robot to fill? Telemarketer, and it's already being done.

Ability to automate: 0.3%

Occupational therapists help people improve their ability to perform tasks in Everyday life and working environment. They work with people in conditions that are mentally, physically or emotionally disabled. This profession also requires human interaction.

DENTIST

Dentists are difficult to replace as they need to be smart and savvy in various aspects of the job and able to communicate with patients.

SURGEON

Ability to automate: 0.4%

Of course, there are surgical assistant robots, but the work of a surgeon is pretty well protected from automation, according to the University of Oxford. There are many legal issues that can arise when entrusting a patient's life to a medical robot that can fail and make the wrong decision.

MAXILLOFACIAL SURGEON

Ability to automate: 0.4%

Again, there are skills in healthcare that robots simply cannot replicate: the ability to handle the sick, the need to make difficult decisions based on incomplete patient data, deal with human psychology, etc.

NUTRITIONIST

Ability to automate: 0.4%

Some of the health care professions that are currently being automated include nutritionists, assistants and pharmacists.

PRIMARY SCHOOL TEACHER

Ability to automate: 0.4%

It is unlikely that a computer will be able to understand the nuances of music, art and literature, let alone teach people to do this.

SCHOOL PSYCHOLOGIST

Psychology is a profession where human involvement is preferred, especially in schools. Working with robots cannot calm, which is why psychologists are safe.

MEDICAL SCIENTIST

Ability to automate: 0.5%

The goal of a medical researcher is to discover new methods for improving human health. This requires conducting clinical trials, interviewing patients and reviewing their medical records.

COMPUTER SYSTEMS ANALYST

Ability to automate: 0.6%

This work requires constant collaboration with others and is therefore nearly impossible for robots to perform. And computer systems analysts tailor technology needs to available companies so the job is never monotonous.

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This is inevitable: robots are taking a huge place in our lives and are getting smarter and more developed, which means that soon some of us will be out of work.

“Machines are starting to do low-skill jobs, and people have more time to develop creativity, which defines the boundary between mind and machine,” the report says. “And it’s about whether people move on or cars just push them out.”

Ian Pearson Researcher International Academy of Sciences and Arts, says that the ability of people to think creatively can protect a certain segment of the profession. Below are 3 professions where robots will never replace humans.

Human teachers are indispensable because robots will never be able to understand children.

“Of course, you can say that teachers are no longer needed, because through the Internet you can find any information. But it's not. Robots will never be able to understand children. And they will not be able to explain where children come from, because they themselves do not have such experience, - Pearson explains. “On an emotional level, a human will understand another person much better than a robot.”

Despite the fact that robots in the field of defense are increasingly used (for example, drones), they will not be able to replace policemen in the near future.

It is said that human judgment will always be an important factor in the police, and it cannot be programmed.

“Most of us wouldn't want to date Robocops. To judge people, we would rather prefer a human to a robot, on the grounds that we would not want a robot to judge the presence of a crime and immediately start shooting, ”says Pearson.

People who work in management, especially those who deal with personality and motivation, are also safe.

“This is human work. I can't imagine people following R2D2 as a motivation,” he says.

Pearson's main idea is that robots perform some tasks easily - for example, searching for data and information, while people do things that are beyond the control of robots.

“You spend more time with colleagues, in meetings, emotionally analyzing and persuading other people. These human abilities become more important the less important information skills become,” says Pearson.

What if your profession is not on this list?

Dont be upset. The likelihood that in most occupations in various fields, including production, people will be completely replaced by smart machines - not 100%.

The Merrill Lynch report says that in countries like South Korea and Germany, which are respectively the first and third countries in terms of the number of robots, the increase in unemployment in the manufacturing industry is less than in less automated countries such as the United States.

This means that even in those areas in which there is a high probability of replacing people with robots, this will happen.

But even then, according to Merrill Lynch's report, there will be another 3.5 million jobs.