Examples of positive management decisions in organizations of the Russian Federation. Types and types of management decisions
On discipline "Management"
On the topic: Methods of making managerial decisions on the example of an enterprise Company "Industrial materials"
Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….3
1. Methods of making managerial decisions……………………….……...…4
2. Identification of problems in the activities of CJSC Prommaterialy………………7
3. Decision making on the example of the activities of Prommaterial CJSC……..13
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….18
List of used sources…………………………………………...20
Introduction
Creation of a large number of enterprises various forms ownership during the formation of a market economy in our country led to the fact that managers had to learn to manage on their own, and not at the behest of "above". One of the elements of independent management of the enterprise is the adoption of managerial decisions.
The process of making managerial decisions is relevant due to the fact that the scale, number of elements and relationships of subsystems in organizational systems are expanding more and more.
Management decisions can be made in relation to any area of the organization: personnel management, financial management, production process management, including marketing service management.
The purpose of writing this work is to eliminate the unsatisfactory work of the enterprise through the development and adoption of a management decision in the field of the marketing component of the company's activities.
The object of the study is the company CJSC Prommaterial.
The relevance of the work is explained by the fact that the existence of any organization is impossible without the constant daily adoption and implementation of certain decisions at various levels of management. At the same time, managerial decisions are aimed at achieving the most optimal result of the activity of the organizational and production system.
The object of management is the marketing structure of the analyzed enterprise. The subject of management is the management system of Prommaterial CJSC.
The result of making a rational management decision is to increase the performance indicators of CJSC Prommaterial.
1. Methods for making managerial decisions.
A management decision is a fixed management act expressed in writing or orally and implemented to solve problem situation.
Making a managerial decision is the process of choosing a reasonable alternative to solving a problem, which is a key moment in the management system. The results of the implementation of the adopted management decisions serve as the most objective assessment of the art of the leader.
Management decision-making methods are specific ways in which a problem can be solved.
Management decision-making methods:
Presentation of complex problems as a set of simple questions.
2. Diagnostics.
Finding the most important details in the problem, which are solved first. Used with limited resources.
3. Expert assessments.
Any ideas are formed, considered, evaluated, compared.
4. Delphi method.
Experts who do not know each other are asked questions related to solving the problem, the opinion of a minority of experts is brought to the opinion of the majority. The majority must either agree with this decision or refute it. If the majority disagrees, then their arguments are passed to the minority and analyzed there. This process is repeated until all experts come to the same opinion, or go to the fact that groups stand out that do not change their minds. This method is used to achieve efficiency.
5. Non-specialist method.
The question is solved by persons who have never dealt with this problem, but are specialists in related fields.
6. Linear programming.
7. Simulation modeling.
8. Method of probability theory.
9. Method of game theory.
Problems are solved in conditions of complete uncertainty.
10. Method of analogies.
Search possible solutions problems based on borrowing from other control objects.
In order to be effective, i.e. to achieve certain goals, the solution must satisfy a number of requirements:
1) be real, i.e. proceed from achievable goals, actually available resources and time (therefore, the solution should contain goals, decomposition (partitioning) of goals into tasks, assessment of available and required resources, a scenario for achieving goals as a result of solving problems and other elements of an appropriate focus);
3) be stable in terms of efficiency to possible errors in the determination of the initial data (robust);
4) prepare, accept and execute in real time those processes that are controlled, taking into account the possible rates of development of contingencies, emergencies(sometimes they try to ignore this most important requirement. Only control in regular situations is considered);
5) be realizable, that is, do not contain provisions that will disrupt execution as a result of the conflicts it generates (For example, the discrepancy between the functions of departments and the technologies used generates a linear-functional conflict in the organizational and production system (OPS0);
6) be flexible, that is, change the goal and (or) the algorithm for achieving the goal when external or internal conditions change, contain a description of the states of the control object, the external environment, in which the implementation of the solution should be suspended and the development of a new solution should be started;
7) provide for the possibility of verification and control of execution.
Goals and objectives must be realistic, correlated with the available resources and their types for solving specific problems, as well as the methods and technologies that are supposed to be used. This involves the use of various types of normalization in forecasting and planning decisions.
2. Identification of problems in the activities of CJSC"Industrial materials".
The enterprise CJSC Prommaterialy considered in the work is engaged in the production and sale of building materials. The company was founded on the basis of a former supply base six years ago. This explains the fact that the company has a staff of production specialists, and the sale of products is ill.
You can imagine the enterprise under consideration as a system. The following is a table of functions and elements of the organization.
To diagnose problems and further forecasting, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the object of forecasting.
The purpose of the analysis is to obtain the information necessary to diagnose the problem and predict the development of the control object in the interests of making a decision by the manager.
The analysis involves the study of:
macro environments;
Competitive environment;
internal environment.
In the influence of tastes and preferences of consumers on the range of products;
In the actions of competitors;
In the regulation of the organization's activities by state and other authorities, etc.
An analysis of the macro environment showed that the enterprise is influenced by the legal authorities in the field of compulsory licensing of activities and certification of products. This influence is felt in daily activities, but does not carry negative impact and reduced performance. The costs incurred by the enterprise in the course of the implementation of the listed activities are attributed to the decrease in profits.
The political processes taking place in the country also have an indirect impact to the extent that the purchasing power of the population decreases in relation to all goods and services, and in particular to building materials.
Compared to the previous parameters, the development of scientific and technological progress and achievements modern technologies. This is expressed in the development of modern materials and technologies for their production, as well as in the improvement of traditional construction methods. This process reduces the competitiveness of traditional building materials and technologies and forces them out of the market.
The analysis of objects and subjects of management is carried out in a systemic unity with the analysis of the external environment.
The analysis involves the study of the macro environment, the competitive environment, the internal environment.
Like any system, the organization under consideration operates in the aggregate and in interaction with the external environment. This interaction is manifested in the following:
In the procurement of raw materials and materials from third-party suppliers;
In the selection and change of personnel;
Influencing the tastes and preferences of consumers on the assortment
manufactured products;
* This work is not a scientific work, is not a graduation qualifying work and is the result of processing, structuring and formatting the collected information, intended to be used as a source of material for self-preparation of educational work.
1. The essence of management decisions and their place in the information system of the organization.
1.1. The essence and content of management decisions.
1.2. Methods and approaches to making managerial decisions.
1.3. Classification of management decisions.
2. Practical implementation of managerial decisions on the example
LLC "Factory of Simbirsk Windows"
2.1. Characteristics of the activities of Simbirsk Windows Factory LLC.26
2.2. Making a managerial decision.
3. Development of management decisions.
3.1.Practical use of management decision development technology.
Conclusion.
Bibliography.
Introduction
Management is a process of purposeful influence on a managed system or object of management in order to ensure its effective functioning and development.
A managerial decision is the result of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification and choosing an alternative from a variety of options to achieve a specific goal.
Making a managerial decision is a choice of how and what to plan, organize, motivate and control.
Managers have to go through numerous combinations of potential actions in order to find the right solution for this organization at this time and in this place. The relevance of this work lies in the fact that for the successful functioning of the enterprise, it is necessary to make a series of well-founded management decisions.
The variety of solutions is a certain complex, the understanding of which is facilitated on the basis of systems approach, presented in this work, which allows you to open and arrange solutions in accordance with a specific system.
The objectives of this work are:
revealing the essence of management decisions
classification of management decisions based on various criteria
consideration of information support for management decisions based on CVP analysis
In order for the presentation of the material of the work to be the most connected and consistent, the movement in it is carried out directly from the definition of the general essence of managerial decisions and ends with a consideration of the information support of managerial decisions, as well as an analysis of one of the models for making managerial decisions.
1. The essence of management decisions and their place in the information system of the organization
1.1. Essence and content of management decision
A decision is the result of a person's mental activity, leading to some conclusion or necessary actions, for example, the development of an action or the choice of an action from a set of alternatives and its implementation. The decision can be viewed as a product of managerial work, and its adoption as a process leading to the emergence of this product.
Decision making is a conscious choice among available options or alternatives to take a course of action that bridges the gap between the present and future desired state of the organization. This process includes many different elements, but certainly there are elements such as problems, goals, alternatives and solutions as the choice of alternatives. This process underlies the planning of the organization's activities, since the plan is a set of decisions on the allocation of resources and the direction of their use to achieve organizational goals.
In the management of an organization, decision-making is carried out by managers of various levels and is quite formalized, since the decision concerns not only one person, but most often it refers to a unit or to the organization as a whole.
Decision making in an organization is characterized as:
Conscious and purposeful activity carried out by a person;
Behavior based on facts and value orientations;
The process of interaction between members of the organization;
The choice of alternatives within the framework of the social and political state of the organizational environment;
Part of the overall management process;
An inevitable part of a manager's daily work.
There are two categories of problems that arise in the implementation process. management activities. Routine or recurring problems are categorized as structured, while opportunities and crises are classified as unstructured. Accordingly, for each type of problem, solutions of a different type will be required: for structured - programmed solutions, for unstructured - non-programmed.
If we proceed from the fact that the decision is an organizational reaction to the problem that has arisen, then the stage of studying the situation is aimed at recognizing or not recognizing the problem existing in the organization. The process proceeds differently for structured and unstructured problems. In the first case, the recognition of the problem will occur quite straightforwardly. In the second case, the recognition of the problem itself becomes a problem. This happens when there is unclear and inadequate information about developments and trends in the organization and its external environment.
The definition and subsequent formulation of the problem allows the manager to rank it among other problems from the most important to the least important.
It should be noted that not every decision developed and implemented by the manager is managerial. So, decisions related to the technical side of the company's activities, for example, decisions aimed at summing up its activities or drawing up documentation, are not managerial. We give more precise definition term "management decision".
A managerial decision is a creative, volitional action of the subject of management based on knowledge of the objective laws of the functioning of the controlled system and analysis of information about its functioning, consisting in choosing a goal, program and methods for the team to solve a problem or change the goal. Management decision is the basis of the management process. To manage means to decide. The term "management decision" is used in two main meanings: as a process and as a phenomenon. As a management decision process, it is a search, grouping and analysis of the required information, development, approval and implementation of a management decision. As a phenomenon, a management decision is an action plan, a resolution, an oral or written order, etc.
A managerial decision can be represented by a set of smaller decisions, including managerial, technical and biological ones. Each of them must contribute to the solution of a common problem.
Each management decision affects the economic, organizational, social, legal and technological interests of the company. Therefore, the criteria for choosing the best management decision should include those that reflect this set of company interests.
The economic essence of a management decision is manifested in the fact that the development and implementation of any management decision requires financial, material and other costs. Therefore, every management decision has a real value. The implementation of an effective management decision should bring direct or indirect income to the company, and an erroneous decision or a decision misunderstood by subordinates leads to losses, and sometimes to the termination of the company's activities.
The organizational essence of the management decision is that the company's personnel are involved in this work. For effective work, it is necessary to form a workable team, develop instructions and regulations, empower employees, rights, duties and responsibilities, establish a control system, allocate the necessary resources, including information, provide employees with the necessary equipment and technology, constantly coordinate their work. This is a very essential part of the whole management decision. Many authors of publications on managerial decisions call them organizational decisions.
The social essence of a managerial decision lies in the mechanism of personnel management, which includes levers of influence on a person to coordinate their activities in a team. These levers include human needs and interests, motives and incentives, attitudes and values, fears and anxieties. The social essence of a managerial decision is manifested, first of all, in the goal of a managerial decision. The goals of the management decision should be focused primarily on creating a comfortable human environment, the comprehensive development of the individual.
The legal essence of the management decision is the strict observance of the legislative acts of the Russian Federation and its international obligations, statutory and other documents of the company itself. Violation of the law in the development of a management decision can lead to the cancellation of the decision, responsibility for its implementation or even development. The company may suffer significant losses if the already developed solution is canceled, and for an illegally implemented solution, the company may be fined or criminally prosecuted by one of the initiators of the management decision. Ignorance of the law does not exempt the violator from liability. Therefore, in many companies, management decisions undergo legal and environmental review.
The technological essence of a management decision is manifested in the possibility of providing personnel with the necessary technical, information tools and resources for the development and implementation of a management decision. Sometimes the developers of a management decision do not really imagine the object to which the management decision is directed, or they use outdated information. There are cases when the development of a management decision is suspended due to lack of necessary financial or material resources, and at the same time, the management decision may lose its relevance.
1.2. Methods and approaches to making managerial decisions
The method or method of decision-making is understood as a specific technological process - the process of forming in the mind of the manager a state of the organization headed by the manager that has changed compared to the moment the decision was made and is actually achievable through specific actions and the means that were used in the formation of such a changed state in the mind of the manager.
The following methods of making managerial decisions can be distinguished:
− spontaneous method;
− intuitive method;
− method of judgments;
− binary method;
− method of multivariance;
− search method.
The spontaneous method is based on the emotions of the manager himself. Emotions are known to be a bad helper. Especially this thesis concerns a business person. Being under the strong influence of emotions, it is impossible to make an effective decision, since the advantage will always be on the side of the real emotions, and not the mind. Emotional decisions are not the most thoughtful and should be avoided. As a rule, these are hasty, ill-conceived decisions, which you can later regret. In this regard, it is necessary to pay attention to the absolutely polar meaning of such categories as emotional state, emotions.
The intuitive method of making managerial decisions is based on sensations and belongs to very specific methods of decision making. Feelings are very personal, subjective, obscure and hardly acceptable to outside observers. Such decisions can be effective in people with innate intuition. Psychologists interpret intuition as a very specific concept, putting a certain content into this phenomenon. Intuition - they say - is knowledge plus experience, excited in the mind of a person at the right time. Also, intuition is understood as the subjective ability to go beyond the limits of experience by mental grasping or generalizing in a figurative form of unknown connections, patterns. The manager turns to the intuitive method in situations where the necessary information is missing and when there is no hope of receiving it or receiving it in a timely manner, i.e. when the manager is not able to "turn on" the process of rational (logical) thinking. Intuitive decision making can be addressed by those managers who are intuitive. Therefore, the manager must make sure that he has intuition. This can only be verified experimentally. The intuitive method of making managerial decisions is risky. But managers continue to turn to him, because they understand that it is better to make a decision in the absence of the necessary information today, i.e. in a timely manner than to sit and wait for the receipt of such information for a certain time and make a decision with a clear delay, when the need for such a decision has disappeared. Thus, it can be concluded that this method should be used with caution. Even after making a decision in this way, it is necessary to carefully monitor the results of the implementation of the decision so that you can suspend or correct the process of implementing the decision at the right time.
In managerial practice, the manager is faced with situations in relation to which it is impossible to use the rational method, i.e. a method based on the use of rigid logic - such situations do not require this. Senseless and useless in relation to such situations is the possibility of using spontaneous and intuitive methods of decision-making. These situations require a simple reasoning from a manager, a simple analysis based on taking into account the factors that underlie and construct such a situation. At the same time, reasoning is based not on the identification of logical relationships and the implementation of logical conclusions, but on taking into account one's own knowledge or individually accumulated experience. So, when deciding to hire a person for the position of head of a department, a manager proceeds from the idea that has developed in his mind that this should be a person with a higher financial (at least economic) education and practical work experience of at least three years. Such an idea at the level of his consciousness was formed under the influence of past experience (for example, there was a case in his practice when a university graduate was hired for a similar position, but he did not cope with the work, because he did not have any experience). Or another example: a manager knows that in order to ensure the break-even level of functioning of the organization headed by him at the current price for the goods supplied to the market, it is necessary to sell at least 500 commodity units. In both cases, he makes a decision based on his own judgments, which in turn are based on his individual knowledge or his individual experience. Therefore, the decision-making method based on judgment is a choice based either on the knowledge accumulated by the manager or on personal experience. On this basis, a manager develops a stereotype of actions to make a decision in relation to different blocks of similar situations. If, for example, you already have some managerial experience, then you know what decision to make if you receive a message about the unplanned, i.e. unexpected, arrival at your address of a railway wagon with raw materials (if this happens not for the first time), as well as you know what decision you should make if a case of non-payment by the consumer of your products is detected (this has already happened in your practice ). The method of decision-making based on judgments is the result of your mental activity, and if so, then over time you already cease to perceive it as a special method, since it already begins to be used by you at an automatic level - as inertial from the movement you once set. “We always do this,” you will answer if someone asks you on what basis you made such a decision. However, in this position of the manager there may be some danger that the automatism of actions developed by him may prevent him from addressing the need to consider alternative solutions under changed circumstances, although the situation itself remains the same.
In management practice, there are situations when a manager needs to make a decision based on only two possible and diametrically opposed alternatives: on the principle of "yes/no", "either/or". For example, when making a hiring decision, a manager faces a dilemma (two possible alternatives): to hire this person or not on a yes/no basis. The manager may also face another dilemma: whether to switch to the production of a new modification of the product or not (again, the “yes / no” principle). A binary decision-making method is an action based on the analysis of two alternatives, each of which is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and risk and the compulsion to choose one of the available alternatives. The method of making a binary decision most often reflects an unnatural representation (reflection) in the mind of the manager of the situation that has arisen. The situation on the basis of a conscious or unconscious desire is artificial. Such unnaturalness or artificiality of the situation is determined by the restrictions within which a choice is possible: either only this, or only this. A professionally oriented manager should move away from such a representation of the situation and resort to such a decision-making method. The practice of referring to such a decision-making method and such a form of presenting the situation is caused by certain reasons that can be eliminated if desired. These reasons include: transferring the right to make a decision to higher management, presenting a situation in relation to which a decision needs to be made in binary form. In this case, subordinates seek to influence the nature of the decision being made in a direction that is beneficial to them. This attempt may be intentional or unintentional. The same form of behavior in the field of business activity can be chosen by a partner who declares, for example: "Either I supply you with raw materials on such and such conditions, or I refuse to supply." Or another situation may arise: “Either I buy goods from you on such and such conditions, or I refuse to purchase.” The lack of time for a deeper understanding of the problem and the development of multi-alternative options for resolving the problem that has arisen can also be a reason. An erroneous professional position of a manager, orienting subordinates to the presentation of a binary solution project, and a false understanding of such managerial quality as decisiveness, when the so-called courage to resolutely and clearly say “yes” or “no” is valued or even encouraged, it replaces the very procedure for making effective managerial decisions, which is characterized as reinsurance, slowness, slowness. From this point of view, binary solutions represent the principle of "cavalry charges", "cavalry attacks". Recourse to this method of decision-making happens much more often than it is realized by the practicing managers themselves who use this method. For example, if you are trying to make a decision on a problem that has arisen, which can be formulated as follows: to open a branch of an organization in a neighboring city or not, then you should resort to using the binary decision method. In this case, there are only two alternatives, and the choice can be made in favor of only one of them, or rather, it is necessary to make a choice between "yes" and "no". When such a situation arises, resorting to a binary solution is not only justified, but also objectively natural. At the same time, the decision-making procedure itself is built according to the decision-making scheme. rational decision: it is necessary to carry out an analysis of each of the possible alternatives (to open not to open) in the same way as in the case of a rational decision to fix the actions that must be taken in order to open a branch, to valuation such actions, identify possible income, as well as profit and payback period (identify the time point of extraction " net profit”, i.e. excess of return over investment). Only after understanding all the stages, you can make an effective decision. The problem of binary solutions should be treated very carefully. A binary decision is justified in the case of its objective nature and unjustified if it is a desire (conscious or unconscious) to narrow down the possible choice base when making a decision. Although rare (compared to others), but in management practice there may well be a need to turn to a multi-variant (multi-alternative) solution. For example, going to announce a vacancy, it was revealed that 50 people can offer their services. How to choose the most suitable candidate among them? In this case, making an effective decision introduces certain criteria (for example, educational level, appearance, manner of dealing with customers, etc.). At the same time, for each candidate, in relation to each fixed criterion, points can be set (for example, 5 points as the highest possible assessment of the applicant's compliance with a specific criterion). The person with the highest total score will be hired. By the way, it is this method that underlies the decision to admit students to a university on a competitive basis.
A multivariate decision, therefore, is a choice in favor of one of the many alternatives through the fixation of certain and specific criteria and the evaluation of such criteria in relation to each of the considered alternatives.
Appeal to the search method of decision-making (innovative decision) means for the manager switching from rational to creative thinking, since an innovative decision implies the absence of ready-made alternatives that serve as the basis for choice in rational decision-making methods. An innovative solution means a manager's “enlightenment”, his discovery, since such managers find themselves in a situation where they are forced to develop new, more effective ways solving a problem or achieving a result. Most often, the procedure for making an innovative decision is based on the use of the criteria optimization method.
(IOC). The underlying idea of the IOC is the assumption that the combination of the best characteristics, features of alternatives known to the manager can lead to a more effective solution (innovative solution). The content of the criteria optimization method is reduced to the fact that the desired one is modeled first, i.e. the desired result, which is decomposed into separate components, called criteria. These components are called design criteria, since further management actions consist precisely in designing or modeling processes and procedures (i.e. specific actions or blocks of actions), the application of which would lead to the achievement of each of the selected components of the desired result and the result as a whole. If you try to express the same thing in a different way, then managerial actions in this case come down to the fact that each component of the result is presented to the manager’s attention, i.e. each criterion, and the manager develops and makes a separate decision in relation to the way to ensure achievement in practical activities each fixed criterion.
The following methods are used to make optimal decisions:
− payment matrix;
− decision tree;
− forecasting methods.
The payoff matrix is one of the methods of statistical decision theory that assists the manager in choosing one of several options. It is especially useful in a situation where the leader must determine which of the strategies will most contribute to the achievement of goals. In the very general view the matrix means that the payment depends on certain events that actually occur. If an event or state of nature does not actually happen, the payoff will invariably be different.
In general, a payoff matrix is useful when:
1. There is a reasonably limited number of alternatives or strategies to choose from.
2. What can happen is not known with certainty.
3. The results of the decision taken depend on which alternative is chosen and what events actually take place. In addition, the manager must be able to objectively assess the likelihood of relevant events and calculate the expected value of such a probability.
The probability directly affects the definition of the expected value - the basic concept of the payoff matrix. The expected value of an alternative or option is the sum of the possible values multiplied by the respective probabilities. By determining the expected value of each alternative and arranging the results in the form of a matrix, the manager can easily choose the most optimal option.
Decision tree - a method of management science - a schematic representation of a decision problem - is used to select the best course of action from the available options. The decision tree method can be used both in situations in which the payoff matrix is used, and in more complex situations in which the results of one decision affect subsequent decisions, i.e. A decision tree is a convenient method for making sequential decisions.
forecasting methods. Forecasting is a technique that uses both past experience and current assumptions about the future to determine it. The result of qualitative forecasting can serve as the basis for planning.
Forecasting is one of the main components management process. Without forecasting, without an idea of the expected course of events, it is impossible to make an effective management decision.
Forecasting as a science began to take shape by the middle of the 20th century.
There are different types of forecasts: economic forecasts, technology forecasts, competition forecasts, survey and research forecasts, and social forecasts.
All types of forecasts use different forecasting methods. Prediction methods include:
− informal methods;
− quantitative methods;
− qualitative methods.
Informal methods include the following types of information:
Verbal information is the most frequently used information for the analysis of the external environment. This includes information from radio and television broadcasts, from suppliers, from consumers, from competitors, at various meetings and conferences, from lawyers, accountants and consultants. This information very easily accessible, covers all major factors external environment that are of interest to the organization. However, it is very variable and often inaccurate.
Written information is information from newspapers, magazines, newsletters, annual reports. This information has the same advantages and disadvantages as verbal information.
Industrial espionage.
Quantitative forecasting methods are used when there is reason to believe that activities in the past have had a certain trend that may continue into the future, and when there is enough information to identify such trends.
Quantitative methods include:
− Analysis of time series. It is based on the assumption that what happened in the past gives a reasonably good approximation of the future. It is carried out using a table or graph.
− Causal (casual) modeling. The most mathematically complex quantitative forecasting method. Used in situations with more than one variable. Casual modeling - forecasting by examining the statistical relationship between the factor under consideration and other variables. Of the casual predictive models, the most complex are econometric models designed to predict the dynamics of the economy.
Qualitative forecasting methods involve predicting the future by experts. There are four most common methods of qualitative forecasting:
1. Jury opinion - combining and averaging the opinions of experts in relevant fields. An informal variation of this method is brainstorming.
2. Aggregate opinion of marketers. The opinion of dealers or distributors is very valuable, as they deal directly with end users and know their needs.
3. Consumer expectation model - a forecast based on the results of a survey of the organization's customers.
4.Method of expert assessments. Represents a procedure that allows a group of experts to come to an agreement. According to this method, experts from various areas complete a questionnaire on this issue. Then they are given questionnaires filled out by other experts and asked to reconsider their opinion or justify the original one.
The procedure takes place 3-4 times until a common solution is developed as a result. Moreover, all questionnaires are anonymous, as
and the experts themselves are anonymous, i.e. experts do not know who else is in the group.
Consider the following types of forecasting. Technological forecasting is divided into exploratory (exploratory) and normative. At the heart of exploratory forecasting lies an orientation towards the opportunities that present themselves, the establishment of trends in the development of the situation on the basis of the information available during the development of the forecast.
Exploratory forecasting corresponds to the movement of technologies in space from a low level to a higher one, i.e. from means and possibilities to needs and goals (for example, forecasting in electronics, i.e. the sequential transfer of technologies from a local network to a worldwide network).
In normative forecasting, the approach to developing a forecast is characteristic, based on the goals and objectives that the organization sets for itself in the forecast period.
1.3. Classification of management decisions
At first glance, it may seem that classification is a purely formal and optional moment in the decision-making process, but in fact it is not. It must be remembered that it is necessary to make not just a decision, but an effective decision, i.e. giving the greatest result, which will largely depend on how well the decision rules are observed. Each type of solution has its own rules.
Only a correctly classified decision will allow the person making it to answer the questions:
How urgent is the decision?
Who is empowered to make the decision?
Who should be consulted?
Who will approve the decision?
Who needs to be informed about this decision?
Depending on the answers to these questions, the information needed to make a decision will be determined; possible restrictions on its adoption; method of fixation and registration; direction of use of communications.
In the modern literature on management decisions, there are a large number of a wide variety of criteria that can be used as the basis for classifying decisions.
According to the source of appearance, decisions are divided into two groups: initiative and by prescription.
Initiative decisions are made, as a rule, by an individual or a group of individuals who occupy a fairly high, dominant position in the organization. This does not mean that middle and lower-level managers cannot make initiative decisions, but the decisions they make are more often a specification of decisions made at the highest level.
Decisions on prescription (in execution) are made mainly in the development and addition of initiative decisions, taking into account the goals and objectives that this unit faces.
According to the degree of impact on the object, operational, tactical and strategic decisions are distinguished, we will consider them comparative characteristic(Appendix 1.).
Depending on the procedure for making decisions, they can be individual, collective or collegiate.
The individual (one-man) form is characterized by the fact that the leader alone makes a decision and bears personal responsibility for it, while in the process of preparing a decision, he can listen to the opinions of his subordinates, consult with specialists and experts.
Sole decision-making greatly increases the responsibility of the manager for the results, the decision-making process, as a rule, is accelerated, and the identification of the source of success or failure in this case is simplified.
The collective form of decision-making means that the decision is made by members of a certain group, connected with each other by formal or informal relations. The decision is made either by voting or by consensus. A decision may require a simple majority or a qualified majority, depending on the rules established for this procedure.
The collective order allows the final decision to take into account the opinions of many members of the group, and in this sense, the group decision seems to be more objective than the individual one.
The collegial form of decision-making is that decisions are made by a group of specialists authorized for this by the team. Thus, in modern joint-stock companies, the most fundamental issues - the distribution of income, the amount of dividend payments, reorganization, the election of the governing bodies of the company - are collective and are adopted by the general meeting. Decisions related to the current economic activity companies accepted by the board or board of directors, i.e. a group of managers who manage the company are collegial.
Collective and collegial forms of decision-making significantly reduce responsibility and practically exclude the possibility of identifying those responsible for a poor-quality and ineffective decision.
According to the method of fixing the decisions are divided into written and oral. Management decisions are mainly recorded in writing in the form of orders, instructions, instructions, etc. An order is the most imperative form of a decision that determines the timing and methods for implementing the task. A kind of order - an order - regulates more specific issues and may exist in some cases orally.
The oral form of the decision is also used in emergency situations. Its disadvantage is that participants in the implementation of the solution can distort the content and interpret the solution in a different way. Moreover, this process is not always conscious, but is associated with a misunderstanding of the information received.
The solution fixation method in automated systems is coding (floppy disks, tabulagrams, etc.).
According to the degree of repetition (novelty), solutions are divided into two groups: traditional (programmed), original (non-programmed).
Programmed decisions make up about 90% of the bulk of decisions made in typical situations. These solutions do not require additional collection of information, analytical and research work, i.e. accepted by stencil. As a rule, programmed decisions form the basis of the activities of managers of middle and lower levels of management.
Unprogrammed decisions include decisions made in new situations that require the collection and analysis of information and the manifestation of the talent of a leader.
Routine decisions are made according to a certain program, as a rule, they do not require high qualifications and a creative approach. They can be entrusted to employees who are disciplined and have a certain level of specific knowledge in the area in which the decision needs to be made.
Selective decisions involve greater freedom of choice, however, within limited limits. They can be entrusted to people who have the required level of qualification in terms of both theoretical training and practical experience. Usually these are middle managers.
Adaptive solutions require combining a large baggage of previously developed methods for solving problems with the ability to assess the features of the current situation and implement a combination original ideas with already gained experience. This type of decision requires both high qualifications and the presence of excellent managerial abilities, combined with fairly broad job powers.
Innovative Solutions Basically, they imply managerial abilities, certain character traits and a high official position, i.e., as a rule, these are decisions made at the highest level of management.
Decisions that have quantitative characteristics (achieving a certain volume of production, the level of profitability, investing certain funds in marketing research) can be made using various kinds of mathematical and statistical methods. The evaluation of the quality of these decisions is greatly facilitated by the fact that it is possible to compare the achieved level with that which was planned.
Decisions that do not have quantitative characteristics (for example, the formation of a psychological climate in the team, many personnel problems) are made by other methods. These decisions are subjective in nature, as they are determined by the personality of the subject making the decision.
The classification of decisions depending on the field of their adoption (management functions) defines decisions as economic, organizational, social and technical, or as related to the functions of strategic planning, delegation, motivation and control.
According to the duration of the validity period, long-term, medium-term and short-term solutions are distinguished.
Long-term solutions are predictive in nature, which is due to the vision of the future based on the needs and conditions of the present. These decisions may remain unrealized if the future situation changes or needs change.
Medium-term solutions are reflected in binding plans and programs in accordance with which specific practical measures are being implemented.
Short-term decisions are made without prior preparation.
According to the degree of regulation, decisions are divided into directive (normative), orienting and recommending.
Directive (normative) decisions are developed by the highest management bodies in stable conditions regarding the current and future problems of the enterprise and are intended for mandatory execution at its lower levels.
Orientation solutions are designed for lower levels of management operating in conditions of considerable freedom.
The same decision for different categories of performers can be directive, orienting and recommending.
According to the method of adoption, selective and systematic decisions are distinguished.
A selective decision concerns one or more closely related aspects of the problem under consideration.
Systematic solutions cover the problem as a whole in all its diversity and interrelationship.
According to the breadth of coverage, general and special solutions are distinguished.
Common solutions deal with the same problems related to different parts of the organization.
Special solutions refer to problems specific to only one unit.
Depending on the performance evaluation system, single-criteria and multi-criteria decisions are distinguished.
Single-criteria decisions, as their name implies, allow alternatives to be evaluated on the basis of a single “master” indicator, the degree of importance of which may follow from objective conditions or be determined subjectively by the decision maker (profit, market share, first place at a trade show, etc.) .).
Multi-criteria solutions require a system of indicators to evaluate, which creates additional difficulties, since it is necessary to select indicators and evaluate their impact on the final result. As a rule, strategic decisions (selection of a supplier, buyer, determination of the optimal implementation according to price and volume criteria, etc.) belong to multi-criteria decisions.
2. Practical implementation of management decisions on the example of Simbirsk Windows Factory LLC.
2.1. Characteristics of the activities of Simbirsk Windows Factory LLC.
Simbirsk Windows Factory Limited Liability Company is a commercial organization that manufactures and installs plastic windows. The organization was founded in 2008, is located in Ulyanovsk and, in addition to the central office, has sales points throughout the Ulyanovsk region.
Simbirsk Windows Factory LLC is currently engaged in the manufacture and installation of plastic windows in Ulyanovsk and the region. The total number of full-time employees is 18 people,
The linear organizational structure of the organization allows the manager to be in close proximity to all areas of management of the organization. This scheme is ideal for an organization with a small staff in mind.
The clients of the organization and consumers of services are the population and organizations of the city of Ulyanovsk and the Ulyanovsk region wishing to install plastic windows. To perform fabrication and installation work, the organization has its own production line. The main supplier of profiles for the manufacture of windows is a large Moscow company Cascade Via LLC. The supply of accessories for windows is carried out by Zigenia-Aubi KG LLC
The main competitors in the market for the provision of services for the installation of plastic windows are LLC "Elite Master", LLC "Okna SOK", LLC "Riom". These are the largest organizations for the manufacture and installation of plastic windows with their own production line.
Simbirsk Windows Factory LLC has its own corporate website http://fabrikaokon73.ru/. The site contains information for customers, as well as for organizations wishing to become partners or suppliers.
2.2. Making managerial decisions in real life.
Until now, the development and adoption of a managerial decision has been considered as a rational process, i.e. as a series of stages and stages through which the manager must go from beginning to end in order to reach the full implementation of the solution and the elimination of the problem that has arisen. In real life, not quite like that, because. There are a number of "real world" constraints that prevent the application of a rational model in the decision-making process:
often managers are unaware that a problem exists. They are either overloaded or the problem is well hidden from them;
it is not possible to collect all available information around the problem for technical or cost reasons;
time constraints force you to make not the best decisions;
in many cases, not all alternatives are considered, and it is difficult to take into account qualitative factors when evaluating and choosing them;
implementation of the solution is not associated with the solution itself by many managers, which allows the problem to continue to develop;
However, the general decision-making mechanisms in real life remain.
The decision can be viewed as a product of managerial work, and its adoption - as a process leading to the emergence of this product. Making the right decisions is an area of managerial art. The ability and ability to do this develops with the experience acquired by the leader throughout life. The totality of knowledge and skills make up the competence of any leader and, depending on the level of the latter, they speak of an effective or inefficient manager.
Theoretically, there are four types of situations in which it is necessary to analyze and make management decisions, including at the enterprise level: under conditions of certainty, risk, uncertainty, conflict.
In this section, I will consider only the adoption of managerial decisions under conditions of uncertainty (some points) and in conditions of conflict, since these situations are most often encountered in real life.
Analysis and adoption of managerial decisions under conditions of uncertainty. This situation has been developed in theory, but formalized analysis algorithms are rarely used in practice. The main difficulty here is that it is impossible to estimate the probabilities of outcomes. The main criterion - profit maximization - does not work here, so other criteria are used:
maximin (minimum profit maximization)
minimax (minimization of maximum losses)
maximax (maximization of maximum profit), etc.
Analysis and management decision-making in a conflict. The most complex and little developed analysis from a practical point of view. Similar situations are considered in game theory. Of course, in practice, this and the previous situations are quite common. In such cases, they are trying to reduce them to one of the first two situations, or use non-formalized methods to make a decision.
Estimates obtained as a result of applying formalized methods are only the basis for making a final decision. In this case, additional criteria, including those of an informal nature, may be taken into account.
3. Development of management decisions.
3.1. Practical use of management decision development technology.
As a rule, quite often managerial decisions are made by business leaders on the basis of their personal experience, that is, purely subjective. Feedback - there is practically no control over the implementation of decisions. But, oddly enough, most often the adoption of the correct managerial decision is subject to all the processes described in the work, and regardless of the knowledge of the decision makers, it goes through all three stages, but in a much more complicated way.
I would like to consider the practical use of technology for developing a management solution using the example of Simbirsk Windows Factory LLC.
Simbirsk Windows Factory LLC is engaged in several activities, such as: installation, repair and maintenance of plastic windows and structures. At this enterprise at one time there was a need to increase the efficiency of work. To increase the profit received by the enterprise, it is necessary to reduce the cost of the enterprise's products, that is, to introduce effective cost control.
The first step on this path is the creation of a system for obtaining prompt, accurate and reliable information about the activities of the enterprise - a management reporting system.
Management reporting is a problem for almost all business leaders due to the lack of an appropriate system for recording, processing and presenting data. Some managers simply do not know what types of information they need to more effectively control the work of subordinates and more productive work of the enterprise. Often decisions are made on the basis of the tax reporting system. At many enterprises, there are two accounting systems in parallel - accounting and practical, that is, serving to ensure the fulfillment of everyday work tasks of employees and managers of the enterprise.
The consequence of this approach to the formation of a reporting system is that, as a rule, there is a conflict between the information that management wants to receive and the data that performers can provide. The reason for this conflict is obvious: different levels the hierarchy of the enterprise requires different information, and when building a reporting system “from the bottom up”, the basic principle of building an information system is violated - orientation to the first person. Performers either have the wrong types of data that management needs, or the right data with the wrong degree of reliability.
In order for the management of the enterprise to receive the data necessary for it to make managerial decisions, it is necessary to build a reporting system “from top to bottom”, formulating the needs of the upper level of management and projecting them to the lower levels of execution. This is the only way to get. Fixing at the lowest executive level of such primary data that, in a generalized form, can give the management of the enterprise the information it needs.
The most important requirements for the management reporting system are the timeliness, uniformity, accuracy and regularity of obtaining information by the management of the enterprise.
Obviously, these requirements can be most fully implemented using an automated system. The use of electronic accounting system technology promised serious advantages in terms of the speed of obtaining and processing information, and, consequently, serious advantages in terms of the speed of making managerial decisions.
The decision to create a reporting system was assigned to the automation department, which was also busy with other problems.
There is a problem, its misunderstanding on the part of management and the complete absence of ready-made solutions.
The automation department completed the first stage of making a management decision: all information related to this problem was collected, namely, the products available on the specialized software market, their shortcomings and advantages were studied. Several versions of our own automated reporting system have been developed.
As a result, several projects fell on the manager's desk. He did not accept sole decision, but gathered all the specialists of the departments working on this problem. At a joint meeting, a solution acceptable to all was developed, namely, one of the projects was selected, and the automation department developed the necessary software.
In this example, all three stages of developing a management decision are clearly traced: clarification of the problem, leaving a solution plan (development of alternative solutions) and implementation of the solution.
Conclusion
Designing and making a decision is essentially choosing from among several possible solutions to a given problem. Options for decisions can be real, optimistic and pessimistic. sign scientific organization management, scientific style and methods of work of the leader is the choice of the best solution from several possible ones. The final solution of the problem comes after "playing" various options, grouping them according to their significance, rejecting those that are obviously unsuitable and unrealistic. One should also beware of the desire to speed up the decision-making process, which sometimes entails inaccuracies and distortions in the decisions made. When choosing the final version of the solution, it is necessary to take into account a huge variety of different influences and miscalculation possibilities, explained both by the subjective data of the employee himself, and by some objective data of the calculation accuracy mechanism itself. The leader must take into account that in practical, real reality, the possibility of implementing only one option rarely arises, which has a clear and significant advantage over others. When making a final decision, it is also necessary to foresee the possibility of only partial success or failure of the decision being made, and therefore it is recommended to pre-plan auxiliary (reserve) activities that, in case of failure of the decision taken, can be carried out instead of the planned ones.
List of used literature
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Sheremet A. D. Management accounting: a textbook for universities / ed. A. D. Sheremet. - 3rd ed., revised. and additional - M.: FBK-PRESS, 2005. - 342 p.
1. Classification of management decisions
To characterize the presented classifications of management decisions:
On the basis of acceptance: intuitive, based on judgment, rational;
According to the degree of impact on the object: operational, tactical and strategic;
In order of adoption: individual, collective and collegiate;
According to the criterion of novelty: routine, selective, adaptive and innovative;
According to the degree of regulation: directive, orienting and recommending;
By the style of decision-making - by the ratio of efforts at the stage of developing alternatives and their choice: inert, cautious, balanced, risky, impulsive.
Present and characterize three more approaches to the classification of management decisions (10 classifications in total).
Give examples of each listed classification of management decisions.
The classification of managerial decisions according to the degree of impact on the object is shown in fig. 1.1.
Rice. 1.1 - Classification of management decisions on the basis of adoption
Intuitive Solutionsis a choice made only on the basis of the feeling that it is correct. In a complex organizational situation, thousands of choices are possible. For a manager who relies solely on intuition, statistically speaking, the chances of making the right choice without any application of logic are low.
Example:
When making a purely intuitive decision, people are based on their own feeling that their choice is correct. Here there is a "sixth sense", a kind of insight, visited, as a rule, by representatives of the highest echelon of power. Middle managers rely more on the information they receive and the help of computers. Despite the fact that intuition sharpens along with the acquisition of experience, the continuation of which is just a high position, a manager who focuses only on it becomes a hostage to chance, and from a statistical point of view, his chances of making the right choice are not very high.
Judgment Based Decisionsis a choice based on knowledge or experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the current situation. However, we note that a leader who is overly committed to judgment and accumulated experience may consciously and unconsciously avoid interacting with new technologies and developments, which leads to irrational decisions.
Example:
The decision to give the competent secretary the right to answer all routine correspondence without external control. The manager's decision on where to build a warehouse for finished products.
Rational Decisionis a decision that is based on an analytical process and is often independent of prior experience.
Stages of making a rational decision: diagnosis of the problem, formulation of constraints and criteria for decision-making, identification of alternatives, analysis and evaluation of alternatives, final choice of an alternative, implementation of the solution, feedback, evaluation of results.
Example:
Choosing (purchasing) a car. The choice of the sales market for goods based on the marketing research.
The classification of managerial decisions according to the degree of impact on the object is shown in fig. 1.2.
Rice. 1.2 - Classification of management decisions according to the degree of impact on the object
Strategic Management Decisions- these are decisions that are made at the highest level of management for the long-term development of the organization. Such decisions are followed by the development of: a strategic plan, an organization's production program. Strategic decisions involve fundamental restructuring of the organization: changing directions financial flows into food groups or target segments, transformation of the structure, entry into new regional markets, expansion or reduction of activities, changes in the assortment policy. Strategic management decisions are made at the level of directors, vice presidents of the company, deputy. directors, heads of production departments and workshops. In a small business, all responsibility for making strategic decisions is concentrated in the hands of the manager and his team.
Strategic - these are directive acts that direct, organize and motivate the collective actions of people to achieve strategic goals. Strategic planning includes:
policy development in various fields that determine the life of the organization;
development of programs and projects, forecasting and determination of socio-economic development.
Strategic management decisions are designed to ensure that the organization fulfills its mission and, due to this, its survival in a highly competitive environment.
Example:
The car manufacturing plant decides whether to produce any spare parts for the cars themselves or find a supplier to purchase them from.
Operational management decisionsperform a corrective role directly in the course of the production activities of the enterprise, solving problems that suddenly arise and cannot be delayed.
Operational management decisions are made on a daily basis based on the conditions of production activities, resource provision, market demand, prices, social requests, events of the political, economic, social, environmental environment. Feature: operational decisions are sensitive to the emerging unforeseen situation, in this regard, they are called situational.
Subject of operational decisions: organizational arrangements, urgent orders, replenishment of emerging losses, losses, replenishment of missing material, labor, financial resources, adjustment of planned, program activities, obtaining current benefits.
Programmed decisions have the greatest weight in the totality of operational management decisions, since operational decisions are fleeting, urgent in nature, require the fastest possible execution and immediate response to the situation.
Example:
Repairing a broken machine in the workshop. Fixing a computer in the office. Software installation.
Tactical Management Decisions, as a rule, are focused on the short and medium term and problems of an industrial and technical nature.
Tactical management decisions are associated with medium-term problems, the development of a line of action for a relatively short period of time in accordance with the current situation in production and markets. Tactical decisions are a way of concretizing the strategy, translating it into specific measures to be implemented within a certain planning, program period.
Orientation of tactical management decisions: as a rule, such decisions are aimed at achieving intermediate goals, solving problems that contribute to the promotion and general goals.
Example:
The decision of the company (manager) on the conditions under which the company will agree on the supply of the necessary equipment (software).
Operational and tactical decisions are related to the implementation of current goals and objectives. In terms of time, they are calculated for a period not exceeding a month.
The classification of managerial decisions according to the order of adoption is shown in fig. 1.3.
Rice. 1.3 - Classification of management decisions in order of adoption
Collegial decisionis a decision made by a group of managers and specialists.
As a rule, decisions are made by the head of the organization in agreement with the leading top managers and specialists, collectively. This is what happens in most companies. The head delegates parallel powers or uses the method of mandatory approval, which is written in the administrative documents: as “agreed”. With mandatory approvals, the responsibility for making significant decisions is partially assigned to the managers who assume such powers. Parallel powers increase the responsibility and rights of managers, and the decision becomes collective. For example, many companies use parallel powers to control financial expenditures, and large purchases require two or three executive signatures.
Collegiate decisions are usually made at business meetings and during the work of commissions by leading managers and specialists. At such meetings, there is already a known balance of power, which significantly affects the result of management, the decision.
Example:
The manager engaged an external law firm to advise on any legal issues.
Collective (democratic) decisions- these are decisions made by the majority of the employees of the organization, jointly by the labor collective or a small group. Unlike collegial decisions, democratic decisions are a clear expression of the will of the majority of members. labor collective, small or large. Such decisions are made in the course of a secret ballot, using methods of expert assessments, for example, nominal group technology, Japanese ringi techniques. The use of such methods is possible with a high level of staff motivation, the use of a democratic leadership style, the development and transparency of the corporate culture.
Collective decisions are also made when significant problems and issues affecting all personnel are raised.
Example:
Election of a manager by competition, introduction of a new wage system, etc.
Individual management solutionsThese are decisions that are made by the leader alone. In small business organizations, a small number of management levels, a high degree of risk of losing competitive status. Such an organization is led by an entrepreneur who bears full responsibility for its further functioning in unstable market conditions. The entrepreneur is afraid to delegate authority on financial and other significant issues to his subordinates and makes decisions on his own. The positive aspect of an individual solution is its creative, extraordinary character.
The shortcomings of individual decisions are manifested when they acquire an authoritarian character. The leader usurps power, single-handedly manages resources, determines personnel policy organization and puts pressure on subordinates. Decisions made by the leader alone allow the organization to remain in the market for some time and be successful. However, in the future, the leadership style used by the leader slows down the development of the organization. The leader must be able to maneuver and be flexible, use the art of delegating decision-making authority to other people in the organization.
Example:
The manager decided to prepare presentation material for the meeting on his own, without resorting to the help or cooperation of employees (employees).
The classification of managerial decisions according to the criterion of novelty is shown in fig. 1.4.
Rice. 1.4 - Classification of management decisions according to the criterion of novelty
routine decisionsare accepted in accordance with the existing program, the manager must identify the situation and take responsibility for initiating certain actions. Difficulties here can arise if the manager is incompetent, misinterprets the available instructions for a particular situation, acts illogically or shows indecision. A leader who perceives the situation correctly, draws the right conclusions, acts reasonably and controls the consequences, achieves what is expected of him. At this level, no creativity is required, as all procedures are predetermined.
Example:
Where to put the computer on the desktop.
At selective decisionsa certain amount of initiative and freedom of action is required, but within certain limits. Selective decisions suggest that the leader evaluates the merits of a whole range of possible solutions and tries to choose those actions that are best suited to a given problem, are the most effective, economical.
Effectiveness depends on the manager's ability to choose the most likely course of action and whether it will be acceptable, economical and effective.
Example:
The choice (rather than the development of a new one) of the system of motivation and incentives for personnel.
Adaptive Solutionscause difficulties, since here the leader is looking for a new solution to a known problem, he must be able to abandon the usual, but already outdated approach to the problem and develop a creative solution. The leader's success depends on his personal initiative and ability to make a breakthrough into the unknown. Such decisions provide an answer that could have existed before, but in a different form. The leader is looking for a new solution to a known problem.
Example:
Innovative Solutionsthe most complex, the manager needs to find ways to understand completely unexpected problems, and solving such problems requires new ideas and methods, the ability to think in a new way, the ability to creatively solve the problem by discussing and using the creative ideas of other specialists.
The leader must be able to understand completely unexpected problems, the solution of which requires the manager to develop in himself thinking in relation to changing conditions. It is possible that in order to solve today's complex problems, it may be necessary to create new industry science or technology.
Development of a new (innovative) approach to organizing and conducting conference calls, for example, via IP-telephony or Skype (Skype).
Classification of management decisions according to the content in fig. 1.5.
Rice. 1.5 - Classification of management decisions by content
Decisions that have quantitative characteristics, are taken on the basis of mathematical and statistical methods. The assessment of quality and efficiency in this case is simplified, since the achieved level is compared with the planned one.
Example:
Decreased defectiveness of finished products by 5%.
Decisions that do not have quantitative characteristics, are subjective in nature, since they are determined by the personality of the subject who receives them. The assessment of their quality is complex and rather controversial, since it is also subjective.
Example:
Carrying out the procedure of rotation (rearrangement) of personnel of the enterprise
The classification of managerial decisions according to the degree of regulation is shown in fig. 1.6.
Rice. 1.6 - Classification of management decisions according to the degree of regulation
Directive decisionsmust be fulfilled and do not imply any initiative. They establish a clear relationship between certain parameters and specific solutions.
Example:
Making a decision on the introduction of information and communication technologies in the field of municipal government will be directive for those responsible for its implementation.
Orienting decisionsdetermine the possible options for the activities of employees when certain conditions occur.
Example:
The decision will be orienting for archive workers, as it informs them that soon the work of many of them will not be in demand. At the same time, it provides for the training of specialists to work with the municipal information system.
Example:
The same decision for different categories of performers can be directive, orienting and recommending.
The classification of managerial decisions according to the style of decision-making is shown in fig. 1.7.
Rice. 1.7 - Classification of management decisions by decision-making style
The nature of the development and implementation of managerial decisions strongly depends on the personal characteristics of a person.
Balanced Decisionsare accepted by managers who are attentive and critical of their actions, put forward hypotheses and their testing. Usually, before starting to make a decision, they have formulated the initial idea.
Example:
Despite the complaints of some members of the team against their immediate supervisor, the director does not apply sanctions to him, since the complaints turned out to be rumors spread on purpose.
impulsive decisionsare accepted by leaders who easily generate a wide variety of ideas in unlimited quantities, but are not able to properly test, refine and evaluate them. Decisions therefore turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable;
Example:
The dismissal of a leader against whom there are unverified complaints from his subordinates.
Inert solutions- the result of a careful search. They are dominated by control and clarifying actions over the generation of ideas, so it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation in such decisions. They weakly activate the staff for their implementation.
Example:
Holding internal audit
risky decisionsare taken without careful justification of actions by a leader who is confident in his abilities. Typically, such leaders have good rears in the form of constantly supporting their superiors or subordinates. They may not be afraid of any danger.
Example:
Cautious Decisionsare characterized by the thoroughness of the manager's assessment of all options, a supercritical approach to business, and a large number of approvals. Such managerial decisions are effective in solving problems related to human life and its environment.
Example:
The decision to increase the travel expenses of the company's lawyer after conducting all kinds of comprehensive analysis of his presence and absence at preliminary hearings on various lawsuits and the consequences of these trips.
The classification of management decisions according to the content of the management process is shown in fig. 1.8.
Rice. 1.8 - Classification of management decisions according to the content of the management process
Economic Solutionsconnected with the economic system, necessary for growth economic efficiency activities of the organization, profitability, payback and liquidity of assets. How best to manage resources, make the enterprise profitable, increase profits - these and other questions will face the manager who makes economic decisions.
Economic management decisions are manifested in the fact that the development and implementation of any management decision requires financial, material and other costs. Therefore, every management decision has a real value.
The implementation of an effective management decision should bring direct or indirect income to the company, and an erroneous decision or a decision misunderstood by subordinates leads to losses, and sometimes to the termination of the company's activities.
Example:
If the manager decides to fire a negligent employee, then the latter may suffer greatly, and if you do not fire or take other measures of influence, the entire organization may suffer.
Social Solutionsare decisions that affect social structure organizations, personnel, corporate culture, climate and shared values. Social decisions can be related to the optimization of the work of personnel, improvement of the system of motivation and social support for employees, the image of the organization in society, and the implementation of the mission.
Example:
Raise wages, introduction of environmentally friendly equipment, improvement of sanitary conditions, strengthening of safety requirements, conflict resolution.
Organizational decisions- these are decisions related to management methods, ways to achieve goals. Such decisions are an integral part of the management process.
The essence lies in the fact that the personnel of the company is involved in this work. For effective work, it is necessary to form a workable team, develop instructions and regulations, empower employees, rights, duties and responsibilities, establish a control system, allocate the necessary resources, including information, provide employees with the necessary equipment and technology, constantly coordinate their work.
Example:
Organize employees to complete the task, redistribute functions and powers, hold a general meeting.
Technical solutions- these are operational decisions that are necessary to ensure labor, production processes, supply with the necessary resources, materials, information.
Example:
Install software in a department, replace a broken machine, pay travel expenses, send a worker to an important production site.
The classification of management decisions according to the method of fixing the management process is shown in fig. 1.9.
Rice. 1.9 - Classification of management decisions according to the method of fixing the management process
Management decisions can be expressed in terms of writingas administrative documents in the form of orders and instructions. Managers provide written decisions for legal examination and further for execution.
Example:
Application for hiring a new employee
In emergencies, the oral form is used. The disadvantage of this method is that the performers sometimes distort the content, and not always consciously, and interpret the solution in their own way.
Verbal management decisionsalso have legal force, and they can be challenged in court if there are at least two people who have heard these decisions.
Oral management decisions occur in the process of meetings, meetings and business conversations. Gatherings and meetings are collective events (public or with the involvement of a wide range of participants); conversations are conducted mostly individually or with a small number of people gathered.
Example:
Oral order to establish the working hours on the day off
Electronic Solutionsinvolves fixing decisions on electronic media. This method allows you to use all the possibilities of information and communication technologies. After the adoption of Federal Law No. 149-FZ of July 27, 2006 “On Information, information technology and on the protection of information” was widely disseminated electronic way fixing solutions.
Example:
Giving by a leader to a subordinate through Email documentation for negotiations
In the practice of enterprises, from the position of legal registration of management decisions, the most common are written management decisions.
The classification of managerial decisions according to the method of information processing is shown in fig. 1.10.
Rice. 1.9 - Classification of management decisions according to the method of information processing
Algorithmic solutionsinvolve a strict formalization of the execution of procedures and operations based on rules, algorithms, formulas, statistical data.
Example:
The calculation of the economic efficiency of new production should be carried out according to the developed algorithms.
But in management, not everything can be quantified. Something is valued qualitatively. You can process and evaluate information based on intuition, generalizations, ideas, experience, associations. Through conversation, discussion, asking leading questions, you can get new information from the client, partner. Such solutions are called heuristic.
Example:
Obtaining information from the partner about discounts received for office paper from the same stationery supplier.
2. Target and processor technologies
managerial business processor
Target Technologies
Provide examples of the application of each of the target technologies both in business and in the field of educational and extracurricular activities at the university. Provide at least two examples for each area.
Processor technologies
Provide at least two examples of each of the processor technologies.
Target Technologies
Target technologies are technologies based on the priority of goals over situations. Target technologies orient decisions towards achieving the goal, rather than eliminating disturbing influences.
The classification of target technologies is shown in fig. 2.1.
Regulatory technologyconsists in the issuance of tasks (goals, tasks) for the execution, indicating the means and their possible limitations, recommended methods and the approximate time for their implementation. The technology provides for a strict control of the process of approaching the target.
The professionalism of the assignment is determined by the qualifications of the manager who issued the assignment and the performer. It implies strict control over the positive dynamics of the process of completing the task.
Regulatory technology can lead to two main outcomes:
achieving tangible positive results from the very process of achieving the goal;
the absence of significant positive results within an acceptable time (marking time).
Regulatory technology provides for the development by the head of the ultimate goal of management and strategies with the possible limitation of various resources (material, human, financial, etc.). In this case, the goal will certainly be achieved, but within a timeframe that is difficult to determine in advance. Achieving the goal is guaranteed only with strict internal or external control over the progress of the process of implementing the goals.
the time to complete the goal or its constituent tasks should not be precisely set (the process of achieving the goal itself is important);
a significant and unpredictable limitation of resources (financial, technological, raw materials, etc.) is possible;
innovative and long-term nature of developments;
Estimated time to achieve the goal - more than 1 year.
This technology is based on statistical methods, the theory of fuzzy sets, the theory of developing solutions under uncertainty. The authorship of the program and the results obtained belongs to the leader and the performer.
Example:
Book writing. Preparation and writing of student work (thesis project, term paper, etc.).
Drawing up a business plan.
Initiative-targeted technologyis based on the issuance of tasks without specifying the means and methods for their implementation and is designed for an enterprising and professional performer.
The initiative-target technology provides for the development by the manager of only the final goal of the task for the employee or department, as well as the deadline without specifying the mechanism for achieving it. At the same time, the goal may not be achieved for any reason, it may be achieved on time or earlier, or it may be achieved outside the established period.
Initiative-target technology gives a lot of room for initiative decisions of subordinates.
Basic conditions for using this technology:
the staff of the organization or its subdivision is not more than 10 people;
the time for completing the assignment should not exceed one month from the date of its issuance;
high professionalism of the staff or great confidence in him on the part of the head;
production of new goods, services, information or knowledge;
the presence of stable informal relationships in the team.
The professionalism of the assignment is determined by the qualifications of the performer of the assignment, and the qualifications of the leader plays a secondary role. Technology does not guarantee the achievement of the goal.
Example:
In the process of fulfilling the task assigned by the manager to the employee, the specialist quit, resulting in a significant decrease in the necessary resources.
To reduce occupational diseases, the company's management decided to purchase a technology that does not use asbestos as fillers for building blocks, while the construction of a new technological building was decided to be “frozen”.
Program-targeted technologymost commonly used in organizations. It consists in the issuance of tasks (goals, tasks) for the execution, indicating the means, methods and time for their implementation, there are indications of external or internal control intermediate states of this execution.
The professionalism of the assignment is determined by the qualifications of the leader who issued the assignment, and the qualifications of the performer plays a secondary role. Program-target technology usually guarantees the achievement of the goal.
The application of program-targeted technology can lead to three main results:
achievement of the goal within the specified period with acceptable deviations from the specified intermediate values;
achievement of the goal within the specified period with significant deviations from the specified intermediate values;
sustainable failure to achieve the goal in a given time frame.
This technology provides for the development by the manager of management goals, means and methods for their implementation, as well as the timing and states of intermediate process values. If any specified intermediate value is not achieved, then additional resources are allocated for its implementation, if the specified intermediate value exceeds the planned one, then part of the resources is transferred to other needs and the goal will be achieved within the stipulated time.
Program-targeted technology is based on modern knowledge, economic and mathematical methods and information technologies.
The main conditions for the use of this technology:
certainty and accessibility of managerial and production resources;
a pronounced separation of management and production;
a large volume of standard procedures, situations and decisions.
Example:
When developing a political platform for any political organization in which its leader is the ideologist and conductor of a set of measures. In this case, the qualification of the performer plays a secondary role, and the professionalism of the assignment is determined by the qualifications of the leader who issued the assignment.
Development and implementation, for example, of the Federal Target Program "State Border Russian Federation»
Processor technologies
For successful implementation, each target technology for the development of management decisions has its own set of processor technologies, which represent the mechanism for implementing the target technologies.
The processor includes six control technologies (see Figure 2.2).
Rice. 2.1 - Classification of target technologies
Results Based Technologyis based on the priority of final results over planning and forecasting. The main function implemented by managers is the coordination (adjustment) of actions and decisions depending on the result obtained.
This technology is well implemented for medium and small organizations or departments in which:
the time between decision-making and the result of their implementation is minimal (hours, several days);
there are no insurmountable difficulties in the rapid acquisition of the required resources or the return of unclaimed ones;
the professionalism of the head of the organization or the project manager is high enough;
the nature of production is predominantly mechanized.
The basis of this technology is a business plan and developments for making managerial decisions under conditions of possible uncertainties. It is known that the most necessary factors for the development of an effective management decision are either unknown or cannot be precisely determined.
This technology is the cheapest among other technologies, since it does not require the development of detailed plans and the calculation of funds for the implementation of solutions.
Example:
1. solving and writing independent work on the exam.
Planning a report on the annual volume of sales of products (services).
Management technology based on needs and interestsis based on the priority of interpersonal relations over other means and methods for the formation of interaction between employees involved in the implementation of the goal.
Interaction between a leader and a subordinate in the implementation of this technology can only occur if the impact affects the needs and interests of both the leader and the subordinate. All other variants of influences lead to counteraction of the subordinate.
This technology is effectively implemented in large and medium-sized organizations in small regions (cities, towns, etc.), where the organization's activities significantly affect the municipal infrastructure.
The number of personnel involved in this technology is not limited. The main function implemented by managers is planning and organizing interaction between participants in the labor process, a positive result is guaranteed.
Example:
Creation of an enterprise in cities and towns with a developed textile industry, where one large organization gives life to a number of smaller service enterprises.
Opening of a new city library in a place where public transport does not pass
Management technology through constant checks and indicationsis based on the priority of control and strict personnel management over other means and methods for the formation of interaction between employees involved in the implementation of the goal. Control and strict management are justified by the fact that in this case a person better realizes his needs for self-expression, self-manifestation, stability and order.
This technology is effectively implemented in small organizations in which the authority and professionalism of the leader is beyond doubt, especially in new science-intensive organizations, educational institutions or enterprises where consultant managers work on a contractual basis.
Example:
1. Testing, attestation, examination, knowledge testing by the teacher of students.
Choreography for the play. In this case, the leader of the group (choreographer) is the authority that regulates and controls every movement of the dancer (actor).
Control technology in exceptional casesbased on the priority of the professionalism of the performers or a proven and well-performed production technology over other means and methods for the successful completion of assigned or selected tasks.
This technology is effectively implemented in small organizations operating either on a strictly regulated technology, or in organizations with a trust (functional) management structure.
In this structure, the manager exercises a linear influence on all areas of the production process in administrative functions, and in economic, technological and other functions provides subordinates and colleagues with the required assistance. The leader is in a situation: equal among equals. The contractor can also transfer part of his work to a lower level and act in relation to him as a line manager and as an adviser.
Example:
1. Fulfillment by the accountant of the order of the chief accountant for the preparation and submission of reports to the director of the enterprise.
Instructing the teacher to the student to conduct an open lesson.
Control technology based on "artificial intelligence"is based on the priority of proven practice, statistics and modern economic and mathematical methods implemented in the form of knowledge bases or databases using modern information computer technologies.
This technology is especially effective for any organization with a large volume of typical complex procedures.
Example:
Filtering e-mail using a computer. In this case, the most important letters are first submitted to the head of the enterprise for consideration.
Maintaining journals of student progress in universities.
Management technology based on personnel activationis based on the priority of incentives and rewards for the employee over other means and methods for the successful completion of assigned or selected tasks. It is effective for predominantly manual production when labor productivity and product quality are mainly determined by the mood, psychology and health of the employee, as well as the socio-psychological climate in the team. The number of employees is unlimited. The technology requires a monitoring system for the effect of incentives and rewards on the activities of each employee or team.
This technology affects the satisfaction of the needs and interests of employees not directly from the manager, as in the management technology based on needs and interests, but through the decisions of the employee himself. Technology requires high level vocational training personnel specialists.
Example:
Stimulating an employee by issuing him a responsible task or paying remuneration in cash and (or) commodity forms.
Writing abstracts, self-study of educational literature as a student's motivation to receive automatic final grades for the semester (year).
List of used literature
1.Abryutina M.S., Grachev A.V. Analysis of the financial and economic activity of the enterprise. - M.: Publishing house "Business and Service", 2010. - 256 p.
2.Baldin K.V., Vorobyov S.N., Utkin V.B. Management decisions: Textbook. - M.: Dashkov i K, 2007. - 496 p.
.Batrik R. Technique for making effective management decisions: Textbook. - 2nd ed. - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2010. - 416 p.
.Vertakova Yu.V., Koz'eva I.A., Kuzbozhev E.N. Management decisions: Textbook. - M.: KnoRus, 2009. - 352 p.
.Vertakova Yu.V. Management decisions: development and choice: Textbook. - M.: KNORUS, 2010. - 422 p.
.Garkusha N.M. Models and methods of decision making in analysis and audit: Textbook / Ed. N.M. Garkushi, O.V. Tsukanova, O.O. Goroshskaya. - 2nd ed. - K.: Knowledge, 2012. - 591 p.
.Golubkov E.P. Management decision-making technology: Textbook. - M.: Delo, 2010. - 544 p.
.Zlobina N.V. Management decisions: Textbook. - Tambov: TSTU, 2007. - 80 p.
.Kokoreva T.A. System analysis of decision-making procedures. - M.: timber industry, 2009. - 290 p.
.Litvak B.G. Development of a management decision: Proc. - 3rd ed. - M.: Delo, 2011. - 288 p.
.Litvak B.G. Development of a management solution. - 4th ed., Rev. - M.: Delo, 2012. - 392 p.
.Mashchenko V.E. Systemic corporate governance: Tutorial. - M.: Sirin, 2013. - 251 p.
.Raizberg B.A., Lozovsky L.Sh., Starodubtseva E.B. Modern economic dictionary. - 5th ed., revised. and additional - M.: INFRA-M, 2007. - 495 p.
.Smirnov E.A. Development of management decisions: Textbook. - 2nd ed., add. - M.: 2012. - 271 p.
.Smorchkov A.V. Development of management decisions: Textbook. - Part 2. - Bryansk: BSTU, 2011. - 44 p.
.Travin V. Preparation and implementation of management decisions: Textbook. - M.: Delo, 2008. - 80 p.
.Fatkhutdinov R.A. Management decisions: Textbook. - 5th ed. - M.: INFRA-M, 2008. - 314 p.
.Shemetov P.V., Radionov V.V., Cherednikova L.E., Petukhova S.V. Management decisions: Textbook. - 2nd ed., add. and dorab. - M.: Omega-L, 2012. - 400 p.
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Before considering examples of management decisions in an organization, it is necessary to consider the concept and features of a management decision.
DEFINITION
Management decision is the preparation of conclusions and assessment of the current and future state of control objects and the subsequent adoption of a resolution by authorized persons.
A decision is a choice of an alternative.
Organizational decisions can be thought of as choices that a leader must make in order to fulfill the responsibilities associated with his position. The purpose of organizational decisions is to ensure movement towards the goals set for organizations. The most effective organizational decision may be the choice that will be implemented later and will make the greatest contribution to the achievement of the final goals.
Features of making managerial decisions
When considering the decision-making process and examples of managerial decisions in an organization, two features should be taken into account. The first is that it is relatively easy to make decisions in most cases. Everything that the manager does in this case can be reduced to the choice of purposeful actions. Wherein good decision often difficult to accept.
The second feature is that decision-making is a psychological process, because people are sometimes driven by logic and sometimes by feelings. For this reason, the ways a leader uses to make decisions can range from spontaneous to highly logical.
There are basic requirements for management decisions in an organization, among which are specificity, consistency, validity, timeliness, efficiency, etc.
Examples of programmed management decisions in an organization
Most often, the organization makes programmed decisions, which are the result of the implementation of a certain sequence of actions (steps). Similar actions are taken, for example, when solving mathematical equations in the case when the number of plausible alternatives is limited, and the choice must be made within the directions given by the company.
Programming is considered an important aid in the process of making effective organizational decisions. By determining what the solution should be, managers can reduce the chance of error. Management often programs solutions for situations that recur with some regularity.
Examples of management decisions in an organization of a programmed nature:
- Calculation of the bonus for the implementation of planned indicators,
- Budget forecast for a certain period,
- Calculation of a decreasing or increasing coefficient to wages, etc.
Examples of non-programmed management decisions in an organization
Unprogrammed decisions are made in situations that are somewhat new, not internally structured, or associated with unknown factors.
In this case, it is impossible to draw up a certain sequence of required steps in advance, so management develops a decision-making procedure. Examples of management decisions in an organization of a non-programmed nature can be:
- Determination of the organization's goals on ways to improve product quality,
- Decisions on improving the structure of the management unit,
- Strengthening the motivation of subordinates,
- The decision on the amount of investment in new project and etc.
Intuitive and Judgment Based Decisions
An intuitive decision is made only on the basis of a feeling that it is correct. At the same time, the manager does not consciously weigh all the pros and cons and often does not even need to understand the situation. Examples of management decisions in an organization based on intuition are often made by management at the stage of formation of the company (for example, the choice of the mission and goals of the company).
Judgment-based decisions are choices based on knowledge or experience. In this case, the manager can use knowledge of what happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the corresponding situation.
Examples of such solutions might be:
- Change in price or range of goods,
- Introduction of better equipment
- The decision to expand the department, etc.
Examples of problem solving
EXAMPLE 1
Introduction
Decision-making, as well as the exchange of information, is an integral part of any managerial function. The need for decision-making arises at all stages of the management process, is associated with all areas and aspects of management activities and is its quintessence. That is why it is so important to understand the nature and essence of decisions.
The adoption of a managerial decision is always associated with the existence of an urgent problem in a certain situation. Problem solving is a process consisting of a sequence of successive actions. This process begins with the discovery of a problem situation and ends with the implementation of the chosen solution (the best possible alternatives) and the evaluation of the result of removing the problem.
The relevance of this topic lies in the fact that the head of any organization daily faces the implementation of a management decision. And how correctly it will be accepted, all further activities of the enterprise depend. The adoption of a managerial decision is subject to the influence of factors that reflect the characteristics of the manager who makes the decision, the characteristics of the negative influence of the external environment, as well as the negative consequences associated with them, information restrictions, the interdependence of decisions made and other factors.
This term paper is the study of the essence of management decisions and the process of implementation in the enterprise.
The purpose of the course work led to the following tasks:
- research theoretical aspect in order to substantiate the essence of the category "management decisions";
Study of the main stages, models and methods of the process of making managerial decisions;
Conducting management decision-making technology on the example of a manager (anti-crisis manager) construction organization.
The object of the study is the Production Republican Unitary Enterprise "Goryn Plant of Building Materials" specializing in the production of bricks and ceramic stones.
The subject of the course work is the theoretical and practical issues of organizing management decision-making and methods for analyzing the effectiveness of their implementation and control.
1. The concept, essence and classification of management decisions.
What is a decision? Let's try to give at first the most general characteristic. Usually, in the course of any activity, situations arise when a person or a group of people is faced with the need to choose one of several options actions. The result of this choice will be the decision. Thus, decision - is the choice of alternative.
Each of us has to choose something dozens of times every day (not always, though, thinking about it), developing our abilities and acquiring decision-making skills from our own experience. There are many examples: choosing clothes from the existing wardrobe, choosing dishes from the proposed menu, choosing the most convenient transport route, choice of place for recreation, choice of specialty upon receipt vocational education, the choice of the type of bank deposit, etc. This list is easy to continue.
Any act of an individual or action of a collective is preceded by a decision. Decisions are a universal form of behavior of both an individual and social groups. This universality is explained by the conscious and purposeful nature of human activity. However, despite the universality of decisions, their adoption in the process of managing an organization differs significantly from decisions made in private life (5, pp. 18-19).
What distinguishes managerial (organizational) decisions:
1. Goals. The subject of management (be it an individual or a group)
makes decisions based not on his own needs (although their influence plays a role), but for the purposes of
solving the problems of a particular organization.
2. Effects. Individual choice affects
his own life and may affect a few loved ones
him people. A manager, especially of a high rank, chooses
management of actions not only for themselves, but also for the organization in
in general and its employees, and its decisions can significantly affect the lives of many people. If the organization is large and
influential, the decisions of its leaders can seriously affect the socio-economic situation of entire regions.
For example, the decision to close a company's unprofitable facility can significantly increase unemployment.
3. Division of labor. If in private life a person, when making a decision, as a rule, fulfills it himself, then in an organization there is a certain division of labor: some employees (managers) are busy solving emerging problems and making decisions, while others (performers) are busy implementing decisions already made.
4. Professionalism. In private life, each person independently makes decisions by virtue of his intellect and experience. In managing an organization, decision-making is a much more complex, responsible and formalized process that requires professional training. Not every employee of the organization, but only those with certain professional knowledge and skills, is empowered to independently make certain decisions (8, pp. 291-294).
Having considered these distinctive features of decision-making in organizations, we can give the following definition of managerial decision.
Management decision
In the process of managing organizations, a huge number of a wide variety of decisions with different characteristics are made. However, there are some common features that allow this set to be classified in a certain way. Such a classification is presented in Table 1.1.
Table 1.1. Classification of management decisions
| Classification sign | Groups of management decisions | |
| The degree of recurrence of the problem | Traditional | Atypical |
| Purpose Significance | Strategic | Tactical |
| Sphere of influence | Global | Local |
| Duration of implementation | Long term | Short term |
| Predicted consequences of the decision | Adjustable | Uncorrected |
| The nature of the information used | deterministic | Probabilistic |
| Solution Development Method | formalized | Unformalized |
| Number of selection criteria | single criteria | Multicriteria |
| Acceptance form | sole proprietors | Collegiate |
| Solution fixing method | Documented | Undocumented |
Let's consider it in more detail.
- The degree of recurrence of the problem. Depending on the recurrence of the problem that needs to be solved, all management decisions can be divided into traditional, repeatedly encountered earlier in management practice, when it is only necessary to make a choice from existing alternatives, and atypical, non-standard solutions, when their search is associated primarily with the generation new alternatives.
- The significance of the goal. Decision making can be
own, independent end or be a means,
contribute to the achievement of a higher order goal. AT
Accordingly, decisions can be strategic or
tactical.
- Sphere of influence. The result of the decision may affect
in one or more departments of the organization. In this case, the solution can be considered local. The decision, however, can also be made with the aim of influencing the work of the organization as a whole, in which case it will be global.
- Implementation duration. The implementation of the solution may take several hours, days or months. If a relatively short period of time elapses between the adoption of a decision and the completion of its implementation, the decision is short-term. At the same time, the number and importance of long-term, long-term solutions, the results of the implementation of
which may be removed for several years.
- predicted consequences. Most management decisions in the process of their implementation are somehow amenable to adjustment in order to eliminate any deviations or take into account new factors, that is, they are correctable. However, there are solutions, the consequences of which are irreversible.
- The nature of the information used. Depending on the
the degree of completeness and reliability of the information that the manager has, management decisions can be deterministic (taken under conditions of certainty) or probabilistic (taken under risk or uncertainty). These conditions play an extremely important role in decision making, so let's look at them in more detail.
Deterministic Solutions are accepted in conditions of certainty, when the manager has almost complete and reliable information in relation to the problem being solved, which allows him to know exactly the outcome of each of the alternative choices. There is only one such result, and the probability of its occurrence is close to one.
probabilistic Decisions made under conditions of risk or uncertainty are called.
To the decisions made at risk, include those whose outcomes are not certain, but the probability of each outcome is known. Probability is defined as the degree of possibility of a given event and varies from 0 to 1. The sum of the probabilities of all alternatives must be equal to one. Probability can be determined by mathematical methods based on statistical analysis of experimental data. For example, life insurance companies, based on analysis of demographic data, can predict mortality rates in certain areas with a high degree of accuracy. age categories and on this basis to determine insurance rates and the amount of insurance premiums that allow you to pay insurance premiums and make a profit. Such a probability, calculated on the basis of information that makes it possible to make a statistically reliable forecast, is called objective.
In some cases, however, the organization does not have sufficient information to objectively assess the likelihood of possible events. In such situations, managers are helped by experience, which suggests what that is most likely to happen. In these cases, the probability estimate is subjective.
An example of a decision made under risk is the decision of a transport company to insure its fleet of vehicles.
The manager does not know exactly if there will be accidents and how much and what damage they will cause, but from the statistics of traffic accidents, he knows that one in ten cars has an accident once a year and the average damage is $ 1000 (conditional numbers). If an organization has 100 vehicles, then 10 accidents with a total damage of $10,000 are likely in a year. In reality, there may be fewer accidents, but more damage, or vice versa. Based on this, a decision is made on the expediency of insurance. Vehicle and the sum insured.
AT market economy the manager must take into account the level of risk as the most important factor in decision-making.
The decision is made in the face of uncertainty when, due to lack of information, it is impossible to quantify the likelihood of its possible outcomes. This is quite common when solving new, atypical problems, when the factors that need to be taken into account are so new or complex that it is impossible to get enough information about them. Uncertainty is also characteristic of some decisions that have to be made in rapidly changing situations. As a result, the probability of a certain alternative cannot be estimated with a sufficient degree of certainty.
When faced with uncertainty, the manager can use two main options:
1) try to get more information and
re-analyze the problem in order to reduce its novelty and complexity. Combined with experience and intuition, this will enable him to assess the subjective, perceived likelihood of possible outcomes;
2) when there is not enough time and / or funds to collect additional information, when making decisions, one has to rely on past experience and intuition.
Some decisions, as a rule, typical, repetitive, can be successfully formalized, i.e., taken according to a predetermined algorithm. In other words, formalized solution - it is the result of performing a predetermined sequence of actions. For example, when scheduling equipment maintenance, the manager
shop can come from a standard that requires a certain ratio between the amount of equipment and maintenance personnel. If there are 50 pieces of equipment in the shop, and the maintenance standard is 10 pieces per repair worker, then the shop must have five repairmen. In the same way, when a financial manager decides to invest free funds in government securities, he chooses between different types of bonds, depending on which of them provide the greatest return on invested capital at that time. The choice is made on the basis of a simple calculation of the final yield for each option and the establishment of the most profitable one.
Formalization of decision-making increases the efficiency of management by reducing the likelihood of error and saving time: no need to re-develop a solution every time a corresponding situation arises. Therefore, the management of organizations often formalizes solutions for certain, regularly recurring situations, developing appropriate rules, instructions and standards.
At the same time, in the process of managing organizations, there are often new, atypical situations and non-standard problems that are not amenable to a formalized solution. In such cases, intellectual abilities, talent and personal initiative of managers play an important role.
Of course, in practice, most decisions fall somewhere between these two extremes, allowing for both personal initiative and formal procedure in the process of their development. Specific methods used in the decision-making process are discussed below.
If the choice of the best alternative is made according to only one criterion (which is typical for formalized decisions), then the decision made will be simple, single-criteria. And vice versa, when the chosen alternative must satisfy several criteria at the same time, the decision will be complex, multi-criteria. In management practice, the vast majority of decisions are multi-criteria, since they must simultaneously meet such criteria as: profit volume, profitability, quality level, market share, employment level, implementation period, etc.
The person making the choice from the available alternatives of the final decision may be one person and his decision will be, accordingly, the sole one. However, in contemporary practice management, more and more often there are complex situations and problems, the solution of which requires a comprehensive, integrated analysis, i.e., the participation of a group of managers and specialists. Such group or collective decisions are called collegiate. Increasing professionalization and deepening the specialization of management lead to widespread collegial forms of decision-making. It must also be borne in mind that certain decisions are legally classified as collegial. So, for example, certain decisions in a joint-stock company (on the payment of dividends, distribution of profits and losses, major transactions, election of governing bodies, reorganization, etc.) are referred to the exclusive competence general meeting shareholders. The collegial form of decision-making, of course, reduces the efficiency of management and "blurs" responsibility for its results, but it prevents gross errors and abuses and increases the validity of the choice.
On this basis, management decisions can be divided into fixed, or documented (i.e., drawn up in the form of a document - an order, instruction, letter, etc.), and undocumented (without documentary form, oral). Most decisions in the administrative apparatus are documented, however, minor, insignificant decisions, as well as decisions made in emergency, acute, urgent situations, may not be documented (11, pp. 118-132).
2. Technology and techniques for making managerial decisions. Methods of making managerial decisions.
Structure and content of the decision-making process. For a leader, decision making is not an end in itself. The main concern of a manager is not the choice of an alternative itself, but the resolution of a certain managerial problem. This very often requires not a single decision, but a certain sequence of decisions and, most importantly, their implementation. Therefore, a decision is not a one-time act, but the result of a process that develops over time and has a certain structure. Based on this, we can give the following definition of this process. Decision making process - this is a cyclic sequence of actions of the subject of management aimed at resolving the problems of the organization and consisting in analyzing the situation, generating alternatives, making a decision and organizing its implementation (1, pp. 178-181).
Consider the stages of the process of making managerial decisions.
- Analysis of the situation. For the need to make a management decision, a signal is needed about an external or internal influence that has caused or can cause a deviation from the specified mode of the system's functioning, i.e., the presence of a management situation. Therefore, one of the most important conditions for the adoption right decision is the analysis of the situation.
Analysis of the management situation requires the collection and processing of information. This stage performs the function of the organization's perception of the external and internal environment. Data on the state of the main environmental factors and the state of affairs in the organization are received by managers and specialists who classify, analyze information and compare the actual values of controlled parameters with planned or predicted ones, which in turn allows them to identify problems that should be solved.
- Problem identification. The first step towards solving a problem is its definition, or diagnosis, complete and correct. As they say, to formulate a problem correctly means to half solve it.
There are two views on the essence of the problem. According to one, a situation is considered a problem when the set goals are not achieved or there is a deviation from the set level, for example, the master can determine that labor productivity or the quality of products in his area is below the norm. According to another, the problem should be considered as well as the potential for efficiency gains. Combining both of these approaches, we understand by discrepancy between desired and actual states managed object.
Identifying and formulating a problem is a very complex procedure. The fact is that at the time of their emergence, many of the most important problems are poorly structured, that is, they do not contain obvious goals, alternative ways to achieve them, or an idea of the costs and effects associated with each of the options. Bringing these problems to quantitative certainty (structuring) requires from managers not only knowledge and experience, but also talent, intuition, and creativity.
In medical terminology, the first step in diagnosing a complex problem is identifying the symptoms. The general symptoms of the illness of the organization are: low - profit, sales volume, labor productivity, quality of goods and services; high - costs, staff turnover, numerous conflicts. Identifying symptoms helps to define the problem in a general way, but just as different diseases often have common symptoms (headache can also be caused by ordinary overwork and hypertension), different causes can cause similar organizational problems ( low quality goods can be the result of both depreciation of equipment and insufficient qualifications of workers). Therefore, managers should investigate the causes of the problem more deeply and not rush to eliminate only its symptoms.
We must also not forget that all elements and activities in the organization are interconnected and the solution of any problem in one part of the organization can cause problems in others. Therefore, when defining the problem to be solved, one should strive to ensure that the number of newly emerging problems is minimal.
O definition of selection criteria. Before considering possible solutions to a problem, the manager needs to determine indicators by which alternatives will be compared and the best choice will be made. These indicators are called selection criteria. For example, when deciding to purchase new equipment, one can focus on the criteria of price, performance, operating costs, ergonomics, etc., and in the case of a decision to hire a new employee, the selection criteria among candidates can be education, work experience, age , personal qualities.
- Development of alternatives. The next step is to develop a set of alternative solutions to the problem. Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible alternative ways to solve the problem, only in this case the solution can be optimal. However, in practice, the manager does not (and cannot) have such stocks of knowledge and time to formulate and evaluate every possible alternative. Managers are well aware that the search for the optimal solution is very difficult, time consuming and expensive, so they are looking not for the optimal, but for a good enough, acceptable option that allows them to solve the problem. The selection criteria defined at the previous stage help to cut off unsuitable alternatives in advance.
Along with the situation when options for solving a problem are known in advance or are discovered without much difficulty, situations often arise in which the problem being solved has not been encountered before, i.e. possible alternatives are unknown and must first be formulated. In such cases, collective discussion of the problem and the generation of alternatives are very useful.
- Choice of an alternative. Having developed possible solutions to the problem, they need to be evaluated, i.e., to compare the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative, and to objectively analyze the likely results of their implementation. To compare solutions, it is necessary to have standards or criteria by which they can be compared.
It should be noted that since the choice is made, as a rule, on the basis of several, and not one criterion, it always has the character of a compromise. In addition, when evaluating possible solutions, the manager actually deals with predictive estimates of the compared values, and they are always probabilistic. Therefore, it is very important to take into account the risk factor, that is, to determine the likelihood of each alternative being implemented. Taking into account the risk factor leads to a revision of the very concept of the best solution: it is not the option that maximizes or minimizes a certain indicator, but the one that ensures its achievement. with the highest degree of probability.
- Decision approval. AT modern systems management as a result of the division of labor, a situation has developed in which some employees of the organization prepare, develop a decision, accept or approve - others, and perform - third. In other words, the manager often approves and is responsible for a solution that he did not develop; the specialists who prepared and analyzed the decision do not participate in its implementation, and the performers do not take part in the preparation and discussion of the decisions being prepared. Management decision-making in an organization is often mistakenly viewed as an individual rather than a group process. Meanwhile, although the main stages of the PPR organizations and individuals are the same, the formation of decisions in the organization differs significantly from individual decision-making. It is the organization, and not the individual leader, who must respond to emerging problems. And not one leader, but all members of the organization should strive to improve the efficiency of its work. Of course, managers choose the course for the organization, but for the decision to be implemented, the joint action of all members of the organization is necessary. Therefore, the stage of coordination plays a very significant role in group decision-making processes.
Ideally, performers act in accordance with the decisions of managers, but practice is far from ideal and this is not always the case. Recognition of a solution is rarely automatic, even if it is clearly a good one. Therefore, the leader must convince the correctness of his point of view, prove to employees that his decision brings benefits to both the organization and its individual members. Practice shows that the probability of quick and effective implementation increases significantly when the performers have the opportunity to express their opinion on the decision being made, make suggestions, comments, etc. Then the decision taken is perceived as their own, and not imposed "from above". Therefore, the best way to agree on a decision is to involve employees in the decision-making process. Of course, this method should not be absolutized: there are situations when it is impossible or irrational and the manager is forced to make a decision on his own, without resorting to discussions and approvals, but we must remember that the systematic ignoring of the opinions of subordinates leads to an authoritarian leadership style.
- Implementation management. The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative: to obtain a real effect, the decision made must be implemented. That is the main task of this stage.
For the successful implementation of the solution, first of all, it is necessary to determine a set of works and resources and distribute them by performers and deadlines, i.e., to provide for who, where, when and what actions should be taken and what resources are needed for this. If it's enough major decisions, this may require the development of a program to implement the solution. During the implementation of this plan, the leader must monitor how the decision is being implemented, if necessary, provide assistance and make certain adjustments.
- Monitoring and evaluation of results. Even after the decision is finally put into action, the decision-making process cannot be considered completely completed, since it is still necessary to verify whether it justifies itself. This goal is served by the control stage, which performs in this process feedback function. At this stage, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to receive.
It should not be forgotten that the solution is always temporary. The term of its effective action can be considered equal to the period of relative constancy of the problem situation. Beyond its limits, the solution may cease to have an effect and even turn into its opposite - not contribute to solving the problem, but exacerbate it. In this regard, the main task of control is to timely identify the decreasing effectiveness of the solution and the need to correct it or make a new decision. In addition, the implementation of this stage is a source of accumulation and systematization of experience in decision-making.
The problem of controlling managerial decisions is very relevant, especially for large bureaucratic organizations.
You can make many reasonable and useful decisions, but without rational organized system control of execution, they will remain in the "bowels of office work" and will not give the expected effect (8, pp. 156-167).
In the process of solving complex problems in order to strengthen the ability of managers to make informed and objective decisions, various scientific methods for their development and optimization can be used, which are usually divided into two main classes: modeling methods and methods of expert assessments.
- Modeling methods(also called operations research methods) are based on the use of mathematical models to solve the most common management problems.
The development and optimization of a solution to a specific problem by modeling methods is a rather complicated procedure, which can be represented by a sequence of main stages:
Formulation of the problem;
Determination of the efficiency criterion of the analyzed operation;
Quantitative measurement of factors influencing the operation under study;
Construction of a mathematical model of the studied object (operation);
Quantitative solution of the model and finding the optimal solution;
Checking the adequacy of the model and the solution found for the analyzed situation;
Correction and updating of the model.
The number of possible concrete models is almost as great as the number of problems for which they are designed. Their detailed consideration is beyond the scope of this textbook and is the subject of a special academic discipline, so we will name only the most common types of models.
- Models of game theory. Most business transactions can be considered as actions performed in the face of opposition. Countermeasures should include, for example, factors such as an accident, fire, theft, strike, breach of contractual obligations, etc. However, the most widespread case of counteraction is competition. Therefore, one of the most important conditions on which the success of an organization depends is competitiveness. Obviously, the ability to predict the actions of competitors is a significant advantage for any business. commercial organization. When making a decision, you should choose an alternative that allows you to reduce the degree of opposition, which in turn will reduce the degree of risk. This opportunity is provided to the manager by game theory, the mathematical models of which encourage him to analyze possible alternatives of his actions, taking into account the possible responses of competitors.
Initially developed for military-strategic purposes, game theory models are also used in business to predict the reaction of competitors to decisions made, for example, to changing prices, launching new types of goods and services, entering new market segments, etc.
So, when deciding to change the price level for their products, the company's management must predict the reaction and possible responses of the main competitors. And if, using the game theory model, it is established that, for example, competitors will not do the same when the price increases, the organization, in order not to fall into a disadvantageous position, must abandon this alternative and look for another solution to the problem.
However, it should be noted that these models are used quite rarely, since they are too simplified compared to real economic situations, which are so volatile that the forecasts obtained are not very reliable.
- Queue theory models or optimal service are used to find the optimal number of service channels for a certain level of demand for them. Situations where such models can be useful include, for example, determining the number of phone lines needed to answer customer calls; trolleybuses on the route, necessary so that large queues do not accumulate at stops; tellers in the bank so that customers do not have to wait until they can be taken care of, etc. The problem here is that additional service channels (more telephone lines, trolleybuses or bank employees) require additional resources, and their workload is uneven (excessive throughput ability in some periods of time and the appearance of queues in others). Therefore, it is necessary to find a solution that balances the additional costs of expanding service channels and the losses from their lack. Models of queuing theory just serve as a tool for finding such an optimal solution.
- Inventory management models. Any organization must maintain some level of inventory of its resources in order to avoid downtime or interruptions in technological processes and the sale of goods or services. For a manufacturing company, certain stocks of materials, components, finished products are needed, for a bank - cash, for a hospital - medicines, tools, etc. Maintaining a high level of stocks increases the reliability of the organization's functioning and eliminates losses associated with their shortage. On the other hand, the creation of stocks requires additional costs for storage, warehousing, transportation, insurance, etc. In addition, excess stocks bind working capital and prevent profitable investment of capital, for example, in securities or bank deposits.
Inventory management models allow you to find the optimal solution, i.e. a level of inventory that minimizes the cost of its creation and maintenance at a given level of continuity production processes.
- Linear Programming Models used to find the optimal solution in a situation of allocation of scarce resources in the presence of competing needs. For example, using a linear programming model, a production manager can determine the optimal production program, i.e., calculate how many products of each item should be produced to obtain the greatest profit with known volumes of materials and parts, the fund of equipment operation time and the profitability of each type of product.
Most of the optimization models developed for practical application are reduced to linear programming problems. However, taking into account the nature of the analyzed operations and the prevailing forms of dependence of factors, models of other types can also be used: for non-linear forms of dependence of the result of an operation on the main factors, non-linear programming models; if it is necessary to include the time factor in the analysis - dynamic programming models; with the probabilistic influence of factors on the result of the operation - models of mathematical statistics (correlation-regression analysis).
- Methods of expert assessments. When developing and substantiating many decisions that are completely or partially not amenable to quantitative analysis, methods of expert assessment bring a significant effect.
The essence of expert decision-making methods is to obtain answers from specialists to the questions posed to them. Information received from experts, in order to minimize errors and the influence of the subjective factor, is processed using special logical and mathematical procedures and converted into a form convenient for choosing a solution.
For the preparation and conduct of the examination, an organizational group is formed that provides conditions for the effective work of experts. The main tasks of this group:
Statement of the problem, determination of the purpose and objectives of the examination;
Development of the examination procedure;
Selection, testing of competence and formation of a group of experts;
Conducting a survey of experts and obtaining their assessments;
Processing, formalization and interpretation of the received information.
Among the methods of expert assessments, group survey methods are widely used and used in practice: the commission method, the brainstorming method, various modifications of the Delphi method. Great importance of these methods is that they enhance the element of collegiality in the process of making complex decisions and, using intuition and the collective generation of ideas, allow you to find new, original solutions to problems that cannot be reached using only logical reasoning (9, pp. 58-64 ).
3. Financial and economic characteristics of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM"
Production republican unitary enterprise "Gorynsky plant of building materials" (hereinafter PRUP "Gorynsky KSM") specializes in the production of ceramic bricks, was put into operation in 1970 and was originally called the "Plant of ceramic drainage pipes".
In 1993, the reconstruction of the plant was completed with the use of brick-making equipment SMK-350. The project of the plant for the production of ceramic materials at the PRUP "Gorynsky KSM" was carried out by "Orgtekhstrom". The project is based on a complex of highly mechanized equipment SMK-350, reproduced in cooperation with Unimorando (Italy). The design capacity of the technological line is 60 million pieces. conditional brick per year.
As can be seen from fig. 3.1., the enterprise has a two-stage organizational structure. The head of the enterprise is the manager, who was appointed to the position by the Supreme Economic Court of the Republic of Belarus, subordinate to him Executive Director which, in turn, all employees of the enterprise are subordinate.
The main activity of the plant is the production of bricks and ceramic stones. The company has launched the following products:
- ceramic effective thickened front and ordinary brick;
- ceramic effective front and ordinary stones;
- brick ceramic corpulent unary;
- fired ground brick;
- ceramic stones with horizontal voids.
Fig 3.1. Organizational structure of management of PRUE "Gorynskiy KSM"
Data on the main economic performance indicators of PRUE "Gorynskiy KSM" in the period 2003-2005 are presented in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1. - Analysis of the dynamics of the main economic indicators PRUP "Gorynsky KSM" in dynamics for 2003-2005
Based on the data in Table 3.1. the following conclusion can be drawn: when comparing the performance indicators of the enterprise for 2005 with the same period in 2003, it was found that the enterprise received revenue in the amount of 2082 million rubles in 2005, which exceeds the revenue for 2003 by 4 times. This positive trend is observed with a slight increase in prices for the products of the plant (by 15.9% on average), which indicates the presence of demand for the products of the enterprise and the intensification of work on its sale.
The cost of sales in 2005 amounted to 3683 million rubles, which exceeded the level of 2003 by 2557 million rubles, 2004 by 1615 million rubles ... prices for products indicates the impossibility of covering production costs, the established volume of sales and the need to increase output, including new types of products.
Based on the results of activities for 2005, the enterprise received a loss from sales in the amount of 1601 million rubles, which exceeds the level of 2003 and 2004 by 1012 and 623 million rubles. respectively. The loss was received by the plant due to the steady increase in the cost per unit of production, and is not justified by low prices for products ( state regulation prices), one of the ways out of the current situation is to increase the volume of production, which the plant cannot do yet for a number of reasons.
The security of the enterprise with labor resources and the efficiency of their use will be considered in Table 3.2.
Table 3.2. - Analysis of security and efficiency of use
labor resources PRUP "Gorynsky KSM" for 2003-2005.
| Indicators | years | Rejection 2005 |
|||
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | |||
Average headcount, total, pers. | 210 | 249 | 271 | 61 | 22 |
| including primary activity | 206 | 245 | 263 | 57 | 18 |
| of which workers | 164 | 197 | 208 | 44 | 11 |
| not the main activity, pers. | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
Working Time Fund actual, person-hour | 347505 | 450163 | 490677 | 143172 | 40514 |
Average annual output per 1 employee, thousand rubles / person | 2624,9 | 5128,3 | 6361,6 | 3736,7 | 1233,3 |
Labor intensity of products thousand people-h / million rubles | 0,6 | 0,36 | 0,28 | -0,32 | -0,08 |
Based on the above table, it can be concluded that average headcount In 2005, the number of employees of the plant amounted to 271 people, which exceeds the level of this indicator in 2003 by 61 people. and for 22 people. 2004 level. This increase was due to the commissioning of the clay dehydration shop, which led to the involvement of workers.
The average annual output per employee in 2005 amounted to 6361.6 thousand rubles, which is higher than the same indicator for 2003 by 3736.7 thousand rubles.
In 2005, the indicator of labor intensity of production amounted to 0.28 thousand man-hours, which is lower than the level of this indicator in 2004 by 0.08 thousand man-hours, which in turn indicates an increase in labor productivity.
One of the main reasons for the economic decline of the enterprise, its insolvency, is the lack of highly qualified personnel, namely, specialists in the brick-making industry.
During 2001-2005. along with the restoration of the number of employees, special attention was paid to the issues of training, retraining of personnel, and raising their professional level.
Analysis of the dynamics and structure of fixed assets of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM" is presented using table 3.3.
Based on table 3.3. we can say that the company in 2005 has a huge value of fixed assets, over 82 billion rubles. Moreover, the largest share in the structure of fixed assets is occupied by buildings and structures (52.2%), machinery and equipment are in second place (42.5%).
Having examined this table in terms of dynamics, we see that the cost of fixed assets in 2005 amounted to 82513 million rubles, which is higher than the level of 2003 by 14941 million rubles ... This phenomenon occurred due to an increase in the cost of machinery and equipment in 2005 compared to 2003 for 7763 million rubles. (commissioning of a new kiln fueled by natural gas) and the cost of buildings and structures by 6276 million rubles ... If we consider changes in the cost of fixed assets in 2005 compared to 2004, we can conclude that the changes are not significant. So there was a decrease in the cost of fixed assets by 120 million rubles, due to a decrease in the cost of machinery and equipment by 131 million rubles and an increase in the item other types by 11 million rubles.
We will analyze the state of the production assets of the plant using table 3.4
Table 3.4. - Analysis of the state of production assets of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM" in dynamics for 2003-2005.
From table 3.4 we see that the company has fixed assets, the balance sheet value of which as of January 1, 2006 is 82.5 billion rubles.
The state of fixed assets is characterized by a high degree of accumulated depreciation (wear and tear) - 56.4% in 2005, 54% in 2004 and 52% in 2003. The renewal coefficient in 2003 was 0.27, in 2004 - 0.22, in 2005 - 0.001, which is less than the level of this indicator in 2003 and 2004 by 0.269 and 0.219, respectively. This indicates that despite the crisis financial situation and the lack of own working capital, the enterprise is working on technical re-equipment. For 2003-2005 1491.6 million rubles were spent for the purpose of reconstruction and modernization of production, including 558.7 million rubles of own working capital.
The main costs for the production of the main product are presented in the following table.
Table 3.5. - Analysis of the dynamics and structure of production costs of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM" in dynamics for 2003-2005.
Based on the data in Table 3.5. Schematically, the structure of production costs will look as follows.
Rice. 3.2. The structure of production costs for PRUE "Gorynskiy KSM" in dynamics for 2003-2005.
This table shows that the largest share in the cost structure is occupied by material costs (37.1% in 2003, 42.1% in 2004 and 45.75% in 2005). The increase in this indicator is due to an increase in the level of prices for fuel and electricity, which occupy a significant share in the structure material costs. Labor costs accounted for 23.6% in the cost structure in 2003, 25.1% in 2004 and 24.76% in 2005. The increase in this indicator is due to the increase in the number of employees of the plant, as well as the average monthly wage.
Let's consider one more auxiliary table that will characterize the financial aspects of the work of this plant in dynamics for 2003-2005.
Table 3.6. Assessment of the financial position of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM" in dynamics for 2003-2005.
| Indicators | years | Deviation |
|||
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2003 | 2004 | |
| Working capital ratio | -3,04 | -2,09 | -4,2 | -1,16 | -2,11 |
| Current liquidity ratio К.>1.2 | 0,3 | 0,3 | 0,2 | -0,1 | -0,1 |
| Interim liquidity ratio K>0.5 | 0,12 | 0,02 | 0,02 | -0,1 | |
| Absolute liquidity ratio K>0.2-0.25 | 0,094 | 0,003 | -0,091 | 0,003 | |
| Profitability equity,% | -2 | 2 | |||
| Profitability total capital, % | -2 | 2 | |||
| Coefficient financial independence K>=0.5 | 0,88 | 0,91 | 0,86 | -0,02 | -0,05 |
| Financial dependency ratio | 0,12 | 0,09 | 0,14 | 0,02 | 0,05 |
| Financial risk ratio, or financial leverage K<=0,5 | 0,02 | 0,1 | 0,16 | 0,14 | 0,06 |
The current liquidity ratio characterized the provision of the organization with working capital to carry out its activities and the timely payment of urgent obligations. As the data in Table 1.4.7 show, this coefficient remains unchanged during 2003 and 2004 and amounts to 0.3, and in 2005 this coefficient decreased by 0.1 and it amounted to 0.2, which is less than the standard value established for industry building materials. This value of the coefficient confirms that, despite the fact that the enterprise is operating, it has insufficient provision with its own working capital and is not able to repay urgent obligations in a timely manner.
The absolute liquidity ratio in 2005 was 0.003, which is less than the normative value of 0.2. This, in turn, negatively affects the solvency of the enterprise.
The coefficient of security with own working capital shows what share of all working capital the enterprise covers at the expense of its own working capital. This coefficient for the analyzed periods has a negative value and is below the standard (0.15). This indicator characterizes the insufficient availability of the enterprise's own working capital necessary for financial stability.
Thus, the analysis of the financial condition and solvency of PRUE "Gorynsky KSM" found that, despite the unsatisfactory financial condition, the company has positive trends to reduce insolvency by increasing the volume of output and sales of products, reducing actual production costs with a further, phased exit for effective financial and economic activity.
4. Technology of making a managerial decision on the example of the head of the PRUE "Gorynsky KSM"
Let's resolve the situation using the example of the head of the construction organization PRUE "Gorynsky Building Materials Plant".
When checking the activities of this enterprise by the control and auditing service, a violation was revealed regarding the maintenance of two official cars at once, which, in turn, contradicts the current legislation.
To get out of this situation, the manager will make a decision based on judgments - that is, he will weigh all the negative and positive aspects and choose the best alternative (option).
The main steps in resolving this situation were as follows:
1. problem analysis. The leader in this case identified the essence of the problem. In this case, the manager saw the essence of the problem in the fact that the maintenance of the second company car is prohibited by law and the costs of its maintenance (depreciation, gasoline, spare parts, etc.) significantly worsen the financial condition of the enterprise, because. the amount of costs directly falls on non-operating expenses, which reduces the profit of the enterprise by the amount of costs.
Analysis of the problem, in turn, decided the essence of the decision. In this case, the goal is to get out of this situation in such a way that it does not contradict the law and does not cause damage to the enterprise in the form of a fine. The head in this case does not see any restrictions for making this decision.
2. Identification and evaluation of alternatives, choice of solution.
Since the manager has little time to formulate all possible alternatives, he limited himself to only two:
1) transfer the second technological machine to the category of a working one, thereby leaving only one, which will not contradict the current legislation.
2) leave two cars, but take the costs of maintaining the second one to your salary (i.e., deduct from your salary).
The evaluation of the first alternative assumes the fact that if only one technological machine is left, then the lead transport engineer will have to travel to work by bus.
And since he lives in another area, 30 km from this enterprise, and there are no morning shuttle buses every day, the employee cannot arrive at work on time (but only by 10 o'clock), all the more he will not come to morning planning meetings, where they decide the main problems and tasks for today. The inconvenience of getting to work can be a reason to look for work in your area. And the enterprise cannot lose such an experienced worker, because he hardly had to convince him to work here in a construction company. This person is disciplined. His subordinates respect him and carry out all his production orders. He is a very knowledgeable and intelligent professional. His loss for the enterprise will be a great loss, which cannot be allowed.
The second alternative involves incurring large expenses for the maintenance of the second car, thereby depriving yourself of the shortfall in wages. This, in turn, will worsen the financial condition of the head. But, in another turn, it will provide an opportunity to keep and secure such a competent specialist at your enterprise.
3) Choosing a rational solution. Since this head of the organization, when choosing the right decision, is guided by a focus on business, as well as on personal relationships with this specialist, he accepted the second option, sacrificing his salary for the sake of production. At the same time, he created an order for the enterprise, in which he stipulated his decision, i.e. in this case, the leader found a way out of this situation on his own, without the use of anyone's help (see Appendix No. 1).
Let's consider another, more complex example of making a managerial decision.
In accordance with the Law of the Republic of Belarus “On State Forecasting and Programs for the Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus”, all enterprises of any form of ownership annually develop business plans for an investment project for the modernization and reconstruction of existing production. So, PRUP "Gorynsky plant of building materials" faced the current situation.
In this case, the organizational decision will be programmed type. This is evidenced by the fact that a sequence of actions takes place to achieve a certain result. In this case, the number of possible options is limited (here, the main indicators for compiling this business plan are the volume of production with the existing production capacity and the number of purchased and modernized equipment). It is these indicators that will be decisive for drawing up an investment development plan. Here a mathematical problem will be undertaken, which will give an answer: at what volume of production will the greatest profit be obtained for further reconstruction and modernization of the main production. In this programmed decision are already programmed procedures for applying certain actions to resolve the problem that have taken place in the practice of the organization and the manager who makes the decision. For the task, standard methods and appropriate procedures for their resolution will be applied. In this particular case, the manager of the plant will not have to spend much effort and time on the methodology for making a managerial decision.
The manager, according to the old scheme, issues an order for the enterprise to establish a working group to develop a business plan for 2006, for 2006-2010, which will include all the necessary specialists. Thus, this decision is correct, since in past years the same scheme of actions gave a positive result (see Appendix No. 2).
However, on January 13, 2006, the Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus “On debt restructuring and some measures for the financial recovery of unprofitable state organizations” was issued. This list of unprofitable organizations of the Ministry of Architecture and Construction of the Republic of Belarus also includes PRUE Gorynsky KSM.
Implementation of this decree assumes a complete deferral of accounts payable, formed on January 1, 2006 for 5 years (this debt at the plant as of 01.01.2006 amounted to 4522 million rubles). The Decree makes it possible to subsequently write off the existing accounts payable after 3 years - by 50%, after 5 years - by 100%, if the following payments are repaid monthly within 5 years:
1. gas and electricity;
2. Wages and taxes on wages;
3. To the Fund for Social Protection of the Population in the form of 35% of the wage bill;
4. bank loans and interest on their use;
5. representative office of Belgosstrakh;
6. current tax payments.
Thus, the implementation of this Decree should significantly affect the financial condition of the enterprise, since by the end of the five-year period, with the monthly full payment of the above current payments, the entire amount of accounts payable will be written off to the enterprise.
In this case, the manager will face a non-programmed solution - that is, the way to solve this problem is new, never seen before in practice.
In order to solve the task, the manager will need to spend much more time and knowledge to make the right managerial decision.
First, it is necessary to collect all available information about this Presidential Decree. carefully study it and understand all its subtleties.
Secondly, to convey to each interested person that the enterprise is given such a chance and should not be missed.
Thirdly, to familiarize each employee with the innovation and discuss it at the meeting.
In this example, the main elements of the management decision-making process were the following:
Diagnostics of the problem and setting goals for the decision to be made;
Formulation of restrictions and criteria for assessing the choice of alternatives when making a decision;
Identification of alternative options for a possible solution, their evaluation;
Choosing a rational solution.
Problem Diagnosis defines the essence of the problem. The entry into this Decree entails the search and use of new opportunities. determination of the essence of the problem that arose made it possible to formulate a specific goal of making a decision - by all means to enter into this Decree of the President and in 5 years to improve their difficult financial condition in the form of repayment of existing accounts payable.
Formulating Constraints and Criteria. To implement this problem, possible solutions may not be realistic. For example, an enterprise can pay monthly only the following current payments: wages and taxes on wages in the amount of 1%. 4% and income tax; gas and electricity; loans. And due to a lack of funds, tax liabilities and 35% of the tax in the Social Security Fund remain unpaid. This amount is approximately 120-130 million rubles a month. Thus, the main limitations in this case are the incomplete utilization of production capacities, the high defectiveness of manufactured products and large stocks of illiquid goods in the warehouses of the enterprise. Therefore, the main criterion, in this case, will be a monthly increase in revenue at the enterprise by 120-130 million rubles. in every way to be found.
Definition of alternatives. For this purpose, the manager conducts an in-depth analysis of the current situation, and also considers in the future all the consequences if nothing is done. Managers have identified a number of alternatives, namely:
1. collection of receivables in full, shipment of products only on a prepaid basis, sale of illiquid stocks of inventory items at contractual prices, increase in the volume of services provided to the population, write-off of equipment and components that have become unusable with posting of scrap and negotiable assemblies and parts from their subsequent implementation, reduction of defective products. In her opinion, this will give an additional inflow of money in the amount of 120-130 million rubles. monthly;
2. increase in the volume of production, production of new types of products that meet the requirements of demand, the introduction of new technologies to reduce the energy intensity and material intensity of the production process (this will make it possible to reduce the consumption of electricity and gas for the production of products and will lead to a decrease in payment for consumed electricity and gas).
An assessment of the two alternatives shows that for the implementation of the first alternative, the enterprise needs very little time (to post additional announcements about the sale of products and the provision of additional services to the population), the collection of receivables can be carried out with the help of the court or the tax authorities in terms of the arrest of the current account, the delivery of existing scrap metal can also be implemented in the near future, etc. That is, the implementation of the first alternative requires a small amount of time and additional funds and costs.
The second alternative can only be implemented in the long term, since the release of new products requires a significant period of time, and the introduction of new technologies involves a significant waste of time and money. An increase in the volume of production at this enterprise is currently not possible, since resources are limited, and also due to the high wear and tear of equipment (up to 80-90% of the wear of its active part), which reduces the full load of the tunnel kiln.
Choosing a Rational Solution. Having assessed the possible alternatives, the manager of the PRUP "Gorynsky KSM" chooses the first one, guided by the fact that its implementation will be started immediately, since the time for entry into the Presidential Decree is only 1 month. Therefore, this management decision is currently made correctly (see Appendix 3).
In the future, in order to implement the Decree, the second alternative will also be put into practice, which will make it possible to maximize revenue and thereby repay its current obligations. This decision is based on judgment.
If management decisions are classified according to their characteristics, we get the following:
1. The degree of recurrence of the problem. When it came to drawing up a business plan for 2006 and the five-year period, the management decision was traditional, that is, it has repeatedly met earlier in the practice of the manager. That is, the manager only made a choice from the alternatives already used earlier. And when it came to the use of the second technological machine and the implementation of Presidential Decree No. 27, the managerial decision took the form atypical, since the search for a solution was associated with the generation of new alternatives.
2. Significance of the goal. In all cases of making a managerial decision, its goal was of a strategic nature, since the decision-making pursues its own, independent goal.
3. Sphere of influence. In the first example, the result of the decision affected one division of the enterprise (the accounting service, which will monitor travel expenses on a monthly basis and withhold its amount from the manager’s salary), so the decision can be considered local. In the following examples, the managerial decision takes the form global, because it is applied with the aim of influencing the work of the entire organization as a whole.
4. Duration of implementation. In all the examples given, the duration of implementation is long-term, since the results of the implementation of the adopted management decisions are removed for several years.
5. The nature of the information used. All decisions made are deterministic decisions, since they are made under conditions of certainty, since the manager has almost complete and reliable information regarding the problems being solved, which allowed him to know exactly the result of each of the alternative choices.
It should be noted that in the practice of making managerial decisions of this manager, documentation is inherent, i.e. fixedness of decisions made in the form of issuing orders. This makes it possible to follow the progress of the execution of instructions, and, in case of non-compliance, punish the guilty person.
Conclusions and offers
The purpose of this course work was to study the essence of management decisions and the process of implementation in the enterprise.
When writing it, the following main tasks were performed:
- the theoretical aspect of the essence of the category "managerial decisions" was investigated;
The main stages, models and methods of the process of making managerial decisions have been studied;
The process of making a managerial decision was analyzed on the example of the head (anti-crisis manager) of a construction organization.
In the process of studying this topic, many definitions of the essence of the category of management decisions were given, however, in my opinion, a more accurate definition is the following:
Management decision - this is the choice of an alternative, carried out by the head within the framework of his official powers and competence and aimed at achieving the goals of the organization.
Decision-making technology should be understood as the composition and sequence of procedures that lead to solving the problems of the organization, in combination with methods for developing and optimizing alternatives.
The main stages of the management decision-making process were:
Analysis of the situation;
Problem identification;
Definition of selection criteria;
Development of alternatives;
Choice of an alternative;
Approval of the decision;
Implementation management;
Monitoring and evaluation of results .
In the course work, the methodologies for making managerial decisions by the anti-crisis manager of the PRUE "Goryn Plant of Building Materials" were given. For comparison, an example was given of making a traditional management decision (that is, developing a business plan for the five-year period and 2006). When making this decision, the manager applied standard methods and appropriate procedures for its resolution. In this particular case, the manager of the plant did not have to spend much effort and time on the methodology for making a managerial decision. According to the old scheme, he issued an order for the enterprise to establish a working group to develop a business plan for 2006, for 2006-2010, which included all the necessary specialists.
The next two examples were of a non-traditional type, that is, a non-programmed solution. In this case, the way to solve these problems is new, never seen before in practice. And in order to solve the task, the manager will need to spend much more time and knowledge to make the right managerial decision.
It should be noted that the manager, when making a managerial decision, applies all of the above steps. It is also important that when making managerial decisions, he is guided by judgments and scientific knowledge and rich industrial experience. Therefore, the decisions made are always correct, which allows thereby gaining credibility among the employees of this enterprise.
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